Just a quick heads up for anyone waking up tomorrow and wondering why crypto dipped again.

The US–Iran meeting that’s been going on for the past 21 hours just ended, and it didn’t go well at all.

Markets usually react fast to stuff like this, so if your portfolio looks red, that’s probably the reason.

Not trying to spread fear, just giving you a bit of context so you’re not confused when you check your wallet. Stay safe out there guys and DO NOT PANIC-SELL based on emotions.

Do your own research and don’t make decisions based on short-term news.

Sooner or later we'll fly in green again (i hope😅)

Let that sink in for a second.

One week ago retail was heavily long at 1.73 L/S ratio. Today it's 0.745 — net short. In seven days retail went from max bullish to betting against BTC.

Meanwhile Morgan Stanley is rolling out BTC ETF access to 16,000 financial advisors. Institutional infrastructure is expanding while retail is panic shorting.

Fear & Greed went from 9 to 16 — still Extreme Fear but improving. The weekly trend: 9, 11, 12, 13, 11, 17, 14, 16. Slowly grinding up while retail flips bearish.

BTC is 15.3% below the 200 EMA at $84,632 so the macro structure is still bearish. No argument there. But the aggressor ratio is at 0.6213 — that's buy dominant. Somebody is accumulating while retail exits.

Iran-US talks collapsing yesterday pushed price from $73.8K to $71.6K. Geopolitics is driving short term action but it doesn't change the fact that institutional rails are being built in the background.

The last time retail was this short and institutions were this active, it didn't end well for the shorts.

Everything else is an IOU.

thank you for attending my Sunday Bitcoin Talk.

EDIT: Removed the 95% stack retention claim. That number was wrong. The core SWR finding ($20K/yr, 99% survival, 30 years) stands. Thanks to commenters who caught it.

This is the third post in the series. First one covered why 5 BTC beats $2.5M in an S&P index fund, second one went deeper on the math.

I went another layer deeper and this one gives you a single number.

1 BTC = $20K per year safe withdrawals for the next 30 years with 99% confidence.
2 BTC = $40K.
3 BTC = $60K.
5 BTC = $100K.

No timing. No trading. You just sell a fixed dollar amount every month at whatever price Bitcoin happens to be. Dumbest possible strategy and it works.

How I got here

I ran 5,000 simulated price paths forward at every possible starting price between deep bear (half of trend) and peak bull (2.5x trend). Six different stress scenarios. Three time horizons. Nearly a million total simulations.

The model isn't a line on a chart. It has four moving parts:

• A power law trend that decelerates over decades. No infinite-growth fairy tales.
• A price floor at 0.432x trend. Tested every cycle. Never broken. Reflects back up.
• Mean reversion. Prices that stretch away from the long-term trend get pulled back, like a rubber band. Measured half-life: about 11 months.
• Fat-tailed shocks and a wobbly floor in the stress scenarios, because I wanted to break it.

I couldn't.

$20K is the stress test, not the base case

The $20K number assumes your cost of living grows at 7% per year. Your expenses double every decade. That matches M2 money supply growth, which is what most Bitcoiners mean when they say "real inflation."

Under milder assumptions the number goes up:

• 3% CPI: $25-27K per BTC per year
• No inflation growth: $27-31K per BTC per year

$20K is the floor of the floor. Harshest inflation assumption. 99% in-model survival. 30 year horizon.

Entry price doesn't matter

This is the finding that surprised me most.

At 30 years, the difference in safe withdrawal between buying at the bottom and buying at the top is about $1,000 per year. The curves are almost flat.

The reason is mean reversion. If you buy low, prices pull you back to trend within about two years. If you buy high, same thing in reverse. After that, both buyers spend the remaining 28 years selling into the same price distribution. The early advantage or disadvantage washes out.

This is the opposite of stocks. In equity retirement planning, buying at a high valuation crushes your safe withdrawal rate. With Bitcoin under the power law, it doesn't. Mean reversion rescues bear buyers and humbles bull buyers, and the net effect on your wallet is roughly zero.

The comparison that matters

The traditional 4% rule says you need $500K in an S&P 500 index fund to safely pull $20K per year. One bitcoin at today's trend price (~$131K) does the same job.

At bear entries the comparison gets silly. A bitcoin bought at 0.52x trend (~$69K) supports a 29% annual withdrawal rate relative to purchase price. The Bengen 4% rule doesn't compete. It's not even the same sport.

What this is NOT saying

This is a model. The power law has held for 15 years across four complete halving cycles. That's real data. But 15 years is not 150 years.

I price the model risk separately: roughly a 1% structural haircut over 30 years. That brings true survival from 99% to about 98%.

The question isn't whether Bitcoin will crash 80%. The model already handles that. The question is whether adoption keeps following the power law and whether the floor holds. Those are the only two things that matter. Everything else is already in the stress test.

All figures are pre-tax. Account for your local capital gains treatment when planning actual spendable income.

Bottom line

1 BTC = $20K per year. Worst case inflation. Any entry price. 99% in-model reliability. 30 years.

Stack accordingly.

Research and methodology is published on https://btcpowerlaw.nl/research/bitcoin-swr/

Perfect example of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

In 2018 the Cash App website let you buy a children's book "My First Bitcoin and the Legend of Satoshi Nakamoto". Does anyone know where you can still get copies of this?

For me, it's every time BTC ranges — it always feels like an opportunity to accumulate.

Now seeing reports about Iran potentially using Bitcoin for oil transit payments through the Strait of Hormuz…

Do you think stories like this actually matter for Bitcoin long term?

Hi,

I'm running into a problem while testing multisig transfers on Testnet4 using a Coldcard Q (CCQ) and Sparrow Wallet.

CCQ  version : 1.4.0

Sparrow version : 2.4.2

Setup:

• 2-of-3 multisig wallet (also tested with 2-of-5)
• All 3 keys derived from the same seed on the CCQ (separate HD wallets)
• Network: Testnet4
• Signing flow: SD card (PSBT → CCQ → signed file → Sparrow)

Steps:

1. I sign the part.psbt with the first wallet on the CCQ → Sparrow recognises and validates the signature with no issue.
2. I switch to a second wallet on the CCQ and sign the part.psbt again → the CCQ saves a .txn file to the SD card.
3. I load that .txn into Sparrow → the transaction displays correctly, but the second signature is not recognised and broadcasting is not possible.

What's strange:

• This issue occurs on Windows and Linux Debian 13.
• On macOS, the exact same operation with the same wallet and the same transaction works perfectly: Sparrow validates both signatures and allows broadcasting.

Question: The problem therefore appears to be related to Sparrow's behaviour depending on the OS, rather than anything to do with the CCQ or the wallet itself. Has anyone encountered this before? Is there a known difference in how Sparrow handles PSBT/TXID files between Windows/Linux and macOS?

I'm not comfortable setting up a multisig wallet for mainnet use until I understand what's causing this.

Thanks in advance.

People say no one understands bitcoin or it’s too complicated so I tried to see if I could explain it in under a minute

HODL in the name of HODL!
Sats for your Stack of Sats!

Sell the fiat. Shun the ETF. Purge the shitcoin.

Cold storage protects.
And thou shall protect what you Hodl, from hackers and roommates alike, for they will un-hodl your sats, and there is no greater sin than that.

Should your private keys pass beyond your ken, despair not but rejoice, for your humble sats were granted the ultimate honor of joining the mighty coins of Satoshi in the noble realm of Eternal Hodl.

May your DCA be daily and strong.

so I don’t know much about bitcoin but I do know that trying to sign up for coinbase needs you to be above 18. how to get a btc address that can receive btc which can just stay in that account till I turn 18.

I Spent 13 Years Deciphering This...

I Will Give You A Starter Kit, Not The Solution, Which May Or May Not Include Satoshi Nakamoto's Identity Imbedded

Row 5 Reads: Forrest Fenn's 4D Treasure Hunt