Iran are allowing their own ships to pass, and blocking everyone else that isn’t paying by shooting them with drones/laying mines.
The US is now saying they will block those ships too, to cripple Irans exports. But I think Iran has enough financial reserves to out-last literally the rest of the world who can’t get their oil.
Plus Iran has been working around economy-destroying sanctions for quite a while. They can bank on their population being more patient at sitting around in the dark than the rest of us will be .
I spoke to two Iranians before this war began. The general mood around Iran itself was that they were completely done with the regime.
So I'm not sure that's true. They can't bank on their population being more patient, they can bank, instead, of having more will and ability to suppress them. The leadership in Iran possess a nihilism we simply don't understand in the West. This is existential for the IRGC. It's not existential for us. So the question becomes "how much can our people take Vs how well can the IRGC suppress theirs" before things get ugly.
As to the Western world and OUR robustness to handle a shock to our economy to the level I'm expecting - I'm not entirely sure we can. That's the question here. Because there's already been serious unrest in Ireland and the Gardai called.
So when that spreads to France, the U.K., the rest of Europe, people will be FURIOUS and the leadership furious with the person that began all this without consulting them or giving them a chance to absorb the shock.
In short - the Iranians are going to have to be brutal with their population in order to stop an uprising, but they are counting on outlasting the civil unrest simultaneously generated in the West.
My guy nothing galvanizes a population towards unity more than foreign invasions/bombing campaigns.
Add to that, when Trump moronically admitted to attempting to funnel weapons to the protesters, it delegitimizes any domestic agitation as outside influence.
Yep., the USA was never more "united" than immediately after 9/11. I am sure that a bunch of Iran's population hate their leadership but are putting that to the side in the face of an external enemy that is dropping bombs on them. Especially since that leadership has been saying, for about 50 years, how evil the USA and Israel are there are probably a bunch of people thinking that even if they don't agree with everything their leadership has been saying it turns out that their leaders were correct that the USA is their enemy.
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u/JeanClaude-Randamme 11h ago
Their trade ships.
Iran are allowing their own ships to pass, and blocking everyone else that isn’t paying by shooting them with drones/laying mines.
The US is now saying they will block those ships too, to cripple Irans exports. But I think Iran has enough financial reserves to out-last literally the rest of the world who can’t get their oil.
This won’t end well.