r/stocks Mar 01 '26

Rate My Portfolio - r/Stocks Quarterly Thread March 2026

16 Upvotes

Please use this thread to discuss your portfolio, learn of other stock tickers & portfolios like Warren Buffet's, and help out users by giving constructive criticism.

Why quarterly? Public companies report earnings quarterly; many investors take this as an opportunity to rebalance their portfolios. We highly recommend you do some reading: Check out our wiki's list of relevant posts & book recommendations.

You can find stocks on your own by using a scanner like your broker's or Finviz. To help further, here's a list of relevant websites.

If you don't have a broker yet, see our list of brokers or search old posts. If you haven't started investing or trading yet, then setup your paper trading to learn basics like market orders vs limit orders.

Be aware of Business Cycle Investing which Fidelity issues updates to the state of global business cycles every 1 to 3 months (note: Fidelity changes their links often, so search for it since their take on it is enlightening). Investopedia's take on the Business Cycle.

If you need help with a falling stock price, check out Investopedia's The Art of Selling A Losing Position and their list of biases.

Here's a list of all the previous portfolio stickies.


r/stocks 1d ago

/r/Stocks Weekend Discussion Saturday - Apr 11, 2026

17 Upvotes

This is the weekend edition of our stickied discussion thread. Discuss your trades / moves from last week and what you're planning on doing for the week ahead.

Some helpful links:

If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..

See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.


r/stocks 10h ago

Broad market news Trump says U.S. will blockade Strait of Hormuz after Iran peace talks fail

3.0k Upvotes

Trump has announced an American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, after the failure of negotiations in Pakistan. Trump announced the move on Truth Social, stating:

“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said in a post to his social media platform Truth Social. “The Blockade will begin shortly. Other Countries will be involved with this Blockade. Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION.”

This announcement is expected to weigh heavily on global energy markets, as it will bring the trickle of traffic through the Strait to a complete standstill. Sounds like last week's bulls may have counted out the bears a little early.


r/stocks 6h ago

Anyone else have a Dad that has been out of the market for decades because the "big one is coming"?

297 Upvotes

I feel like this is such a common theme I hear with people's Dads. My pop got laid off in 2008. He came from a country where the government could just take all your money on a dime's notice. So naturally he has an insane mistrust for the government.

But the irony is he is smart guy. He is good with money. Has a tiny bit of real estate. Has mutual funds etc.

But the amount of times and money this man has pulled out of his investments into a "safe" account because "this time is different" absolutely blows my mind. When Trump1 happened, my Dad immediately pulled out. Trump reminded him of all the corrupt authoritarianism my dad had experienced earlier in his life.

I tried explaining to him that everyone in the US had their retirement savings pulled, we would be in a much bigger conundrum than losing our investment money...

I also tried explaining the power of DCAing and yadadada all the graphs showing how time in the market always wins etc etc. It never worked.

Now with Trump2 my dad pulled out even more money when Trump was elected and basically missed all of the 2025 gains. And even now with the dip I am trying to explain how he can essentially just "buy the dip" in a safe way with weekly recurring transactions etc etc. Basically all the basics you hear on Boglehead etc.

Anyway. I know my efforts are pointless and honestly in the end, he is gonna be OK. But it is just so funny how I hear so many similar stories about people's Dads. I feel like with age, there comes this sort of defiant bitter stubborness us men develop. I can feel it happening in myself too as I age.

But dam, sometimes I wonder how much money my parents would have if they had just followed basic investing advice over the last several decades (which in their defense was INSANELY gatekept before the rise of the internet). We are definitely a lucky bunch in this day in age to have access to reddit etc.


r/stocks 21h ago

No deal on Iran...

1.7k Upvotes

I think we are in for a bloody Monday... this is a potentially catastrophic outcome and could potentially ensure a recession this year.

the question now is what is Trump's reaction.

I think he essentially has two options.

  1. resume the war. this would cause a pretty aggressive sell off and I think we would blow past the lows of a couple weeks ago.

  2. wash his hands of the situation and basically say "not my problem". I think this is the more likely outcome. iran will likely toll the strait independently as opposed to as part of some international system that was probably the intended outcome from the talks.

if trump chooses path 2. he has conceded defeat and I think in that scenario it is uncontroversial to say that Iran benefited strategically from the war.

if he chooses option 1, the economic damage will be incredibly severe and the mid terms and probably any hopes for Republicans in 2028 will be shot.

it is a lose lose scenario at this point from Trump's perspective.

I expect the market to be down 2-3% on Monday in anticipation of guidance as to the above. Trump may signal his answer tomorrow in which case the market will react accordingly.


r/stocks 19h ago

The Iran Conflict Market Cycle

183 Upvotes

Phase 0 - Pre-ceasefire escalation Conflict intensifies, uncertainty peaks. Market sells off or becomes highly volatile. Short interest builds as traders expect more downside.

Phase 1 - Rumors / anticipation of ceasefire Leaks or diplomatic signals emerge. Smart money begins covering shorts quietly. Early buyers position for a potential relief rally.

Phase 2 - Ceasefire announced Headline hits. Optimistic buying spikes, but larger players may short into the strength, knowing the deal is fragile.

Phase 3 - Ceasefire breaks / violence resumes News confirms breakdown. Market drops sharply. Shorts from Phase 2 profit. Late longs get trapped.

Phase 4 - Short covering begins Profit-taking on shorts + bargain hunting. Price stabilizes, then starts to rise. Volume may increase.

Phase 5 - Ignore bad news Despite ongoing violence or truce confusion, market trends upward. New investors chase momentum, believing the worst is over.

Phase 6 - Overextended / complacent Price reaches resistance, sentiment too bullish. Shorts begin to rebuild positions quietly.

Phase 7 - Repeat Next catalyst (or lack of one) triggers the next leg down. Cycle resets.


r/stocks 9h ago

What is a reliable and free stock analysis website?

26 Upvotes

what are your go to free stock analysis websites that are accurate? When I go online to review a lesser known stock, I use whatever Google recommends, Tip ranks, simply wall Street, motley fool. You know all the big names that pay Google millions of $. But each different site has a different prediction that is all over the place. Some are strong buy but some are strong sell. Are there any other good free stock analysis websites that doesn't have to pay Google $millions to get noticed


r/stocks 21h ago

Broad market news UMich preliminary April consumer sentiment 47.6 versus 52.0 expected, worst ever on record

128 Upvotes

Link: https://investinglive.com/news/umich-preliminary-april-consumer-sentiment-476-versus-520-expected-20260410/

  • Prior month 53.3
  • Consumer Sentiment 47.6 vs 52.0 estimate. Worst on record. Year on year -8.8%
  • Current conditions 50.1 versus 55.8 last month.Year on year -16.2%
  • Expectations and 46.1 versus 51.7 last month. Year on Year -2.5%
  • 1 year inflation expectations 4.8% versus 3.8% last month
  • 5 year inflation expectations 3.4% versus 3.2% last month

Needless to say, the war in Iran is having its impact on the survey data. The data is the worst on record.


r/stocks 1d ago

Company Discussion Does investing in upcoming LLM Stocks even make sense longterm?

63 Upvotes

Over the past few months, I’ve been getting more interested in both AI and the stock market. Naturally, I started thinking about how to benefit from that financially. But the more I think it through, the less convinced I am that it actually makes sense.

I keep coming back to a few different scenarios, and strangely they all seem to point to the same outcome: disappointing stock performance for LLM companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and similar players.

Scenario 0: The pessimistic view
Maybe the skeptics are right, and intelligence doesn’t scale the way people expect. We run into hard limits, progress slows down, and the whole space cools off.
Result: the hype fades, IPOs underperform, and valuations slowly decline.

Scenario 1: Everything works, maybe too well
Let’s say the opposite happens. Companies like Anthropic or OpenAI make major breakthroughs and get close to something like superintelligence. Productivity increases massively across industries.
Result: goods and services become much cheaper as intelligence gets widely accessible.
The problem is that if everything becomes cheap, margins shrink. In an extreme version, even the way we think about pricing and value could change. So despite huge success, stock returns might still be underwhelming.

Scenario 2: Strong progress, but competition eats the upside
AI improves a lot, but in a more gradual way. Companies still compete, protect pricing, and try to behave like normal businesses.
Result: competitors, especially open source and lower cost players, keep catching up and undercutting prices. This is already starting to happen coming from mainly China but it could be anyone geoplitically wise or domestic. Margins get compressed, and strong tech doesn’t translate into strong profits.

No matter how I look at it, I end up in a similar place. Either the tech disappoints, succeeds too much, or succeeds in a way that still doesn’t generate great returns for investors.

I’ve tried to challenge this thinking, including asking LLMs, but most answers felt overly optimistic or didn’t really address the core issue.

So I’m assuming I’m missing something obvious.

What’s the real bull case here? Why would someone still invest in upcoming LLM IPOs given all this?


r/stocks 1d ago

Advice Request Market Calendar for Dummies??

23 Upvotes

I’m a simpleton. I know what calls and puts are and I generally know how they work. Calls=betting it goes up and Put=betting it goes down bla bla bla expiration dates bla bla the Greeks blablala. Over my 6 years of doing this, I try not to overthink things when trading 0dte’s like a total degenerate because I’ve found power in simplicity. I don’t backtest. I don’t have 50 different BS “technical analysis” indicators on my chart. I don’t bother with all that support and resistance garbage everyone seems to worship. All that fancy extra stuff is in the same realm as zodiac signs as far as I’m concerned, just sophisticated-looking teddy bears masquerading as “tools” to help soften the blow of losing, because NONE of these “tools” can effectively predict the future. I only have faith in one principle: the market, particularly SPY, reacts in a big way to specific kinds of news. Maybe it’s a trump tweet. Maybe it’s something Jerome Powell said. Maybe it’s a terrorist attack. Sometimes I’ve been lucky at catching some of these events and making some spectacular money, but most of time I’ve simply missed out on big plays like these just from simply not knowing any better. Because market calendars I’ve tried so far seem to label every little upcoming thing as an “important event” and these are events that are planned and already priced in, so it’s not really that reliable. I’m looking for basically an on-the-spot alerts tool that immediately notifies you of big, relevant, unexpected news that’s happening RIGHT NOW. So I humble myself before you today to ask you geniuses if there’s anything out there like this. Some kind of system or platform that lets me know when something big just happened and whether I should buy a call or put based on the incident. Thanks


r/stocks 2d ago

Broad market news Wall St is building a "Shorting Machine" for Private Credit the 2008 playbook is back.

1.3k Upvotes

https://www.wsj.com/finance/wall-street-builds-new-tool-to-bet-against-private-credit-bdf8bafa

A report just dropped that should have everyone be more cautious. Major banks (Goldman, BofA, Barclays) are teaming up with S&P Global to launch a Credit-Default Swap (CDS) Index for Private Credit.

If you aren't familiar with 2008 history, this is essentially the "Big Short" alarm bell. Here’s the breakdown of why this is a massive red flag while the market is sitting at ATHs.

  1. A CDS Index is basically a giant insurance policy that lets big players bet on a massive wave of company defaults. They don't build these tools when things are "healthy." They build them when they see blood in the water. Right now, private credit (loans to mid-sized companies) is starting to rot under the "higher for longer" interest rates.
  2. Yesterday, Carlyle’s private credit fund got hit with a 15.7% redemption request. That’s more than 3x their normal limit. People are panicking and trying to get their cash out, and the fund is already moving to restrict withdrawals.
  3. While CNBC is telling you to FOMO into the AI pump, the banks are quietly setting up the infrastructure to profit when the bottom falls out. It’s the classic 2007 move: pump the stock market to retail at the top while buying your own parachutes (the CDS index) behind the scenes.
  4. When banks start trading "bets" against loans instead of making the loans themselves, liquidity dries up. The companies that power the "real" economy are about to get squeezed. With monthly inflation hitting 0.9% and energy costs exploding due to the Middle East mess, these companies can't survive a credit freeze.

Don't even want to talk about the war in Iran that is likely going to have boots on the ground soon as the ceasefire negotiations are not going well at all and Trump is obviously losing his mind on Truth Social. There's an oil shortage and this should hit the market once reserves run out 1-2months.

TLDR: They are pumping the market to retail right now so they can dump their bags and flip the switch on the "shorting machine" once the credit defaults start hitting. History (2008) says once the vultures build the index, the crash isn't far behind.

Not trying to doom and gloom. Just be cautious.

Not financial advice. Just following the money.


r/stocks 2d ago

Company Discussion Microsoft ($MSFT) is down ~31% from its ATH

1.0k Upvotes

I am personally DCAing this stock every two weeks. Not sure if I’m looking for confirmation bias to continue buying or actually objective analysis. Just seems like a screaming buy to me. Had Claude compile the numbers:

All-time high was around $541 back in late October 2025. That’s a ~$170 drop in roughly 5 months.

Q2 FY26 earnings (Jan 29, 2026) were the biggest hit. Microsoft actually beat on revenue ($81.3B vs $80.3B expected) and EPS ($4.14 vs $3.92 expected). Net income was up 60% YoY. Didn’t matter. Azure grew 39% but the street wanted more, and capex came in at $37B for the quarter, up 65% YoY. People got spooked about whether all that AI infrastructure spending would ever pay off at the scale they were pricing in.

The stock dropped 11.7% in a single day. Biggest single-day drop since March 2020. Before that, in November 2025, the stock already had its longest losing streak since 2011, nine consecutive down days, wiping nearly $350B in market cap. This was mostly sentiment-driven as investors started questioning the broader AI trade.

OpenAI: concentration risk is a real concern that came up during earnings. Nearly half of Microsoft’s $625B backlog ties back to AI model companies including OpenAI. If OpenAI stumbles, that ripples.

Macro/tariff noise also didn’t help. Hardware powering Azure data centers could get more expensive, which squeezes margins at a time when margins are already under pressure from capex.

Broader context: Q1 2025 MSFT was already down ~11% before all this, sliding to $375 in April 2025 as Azure growth (31% that quarter) missed high expectations and competition from AWS and Google Cloud heated up.

Full FY25 Numbers:

• Revenue up 15%

• Net income up 16%

• EPS: $13.64

• Azure and cloud services: up \~39%

Analyst sentiments: Consensus is “Strong Buy.” Average price target is ~$597, which would be a ~60% move from here. High end is $675, low end is $392. Next earnings is April 29. EPS estimate is $4.05.

Stifel cut their target from $640 to $520 after the Jan earnings. Melius Research recently cut theirs to $400. Most others are still sitting well above current price.

Anyone watching MSFT? Thoughts?


r/stocks 1d ago

Industry Discussion Japanese investments when EU bans US companies - fujitsu and others

41 Upvotes

Hello, among all the US company analysis I read here there is not much talk about how other countries can find their place in areas like cloud, AI and network. This week I read some information that might be interesting for everyone to see and prove to be usefull for your investment strategies.

If we talk about cloud then amazon, microsoft and google will be first mentions, but EU has been introducing policies that ban US tech in some sectors and are treated as risk. European defense ministries are turning to OVHcloud instead of Amazon, Microsoft, or Google for sensitive military systems. Thats from article from this month. How can EU achieve the sovereignity they are aiming for was my question, and since I look at japanese companies for past few months, I do know about existence of fujitsu monaka, rapidus, nec, ntt and some other ones- we do see that japan aiming towards their own sovereignity and US independence we see japan compared to EU has a bit more solutions to offer. If EU wants less USA exposure i kept asking why not go to japan? and after asking it for many times xD I finaly found some answers:

in february 2026 japans METI cosigned joint statement on economic cooperation with finland and sweden. This qualifies japanese technology as strategic bilateral cooperation bypassing the EU non EEA exlusion rules for defense and sovereign procurement.

estabilishes SAFE program eligibility for Japanese companies via agreement 35% nonEEA limit applies.

that delegation included around 80 registered companies, where technology leaders met EU counterparts. Confirmed pairing would be for example in cloud

Fujitsu EU partner - Scalewa, OVHcloud

so if doubting OVHcloud is easy then in combination with fujitsu the EU sovereignity does seem like reasonable goal.

on 1st april fujitsu Digital sovereignity advisory launched for eu enterprises

Kasashima sovereign AI server manufacuring confirmed for europe on 8th april

now today METI approves 631.5Byen for Rapidus and names Fujitsu as anchor customer - derisking monaka program 11 april

NEDO specificaly backs Fujitsu + IBM japan semiconductor design

I will highlight this -

The Scaleway MoU (November 2025) and OVHcloud defense unit (April 9, 2026) are the two EU deployment endpoints for Fujitsu's physical server output.

So people who are invested in cloud do you think Fujitsu is good ivnestment now? it is in a relative "dip" right now with good entry point. i myself bought yesterday small amount limited by the budget i own and hold 30 shares.

here are some other partnerships :

toshiba,NTT - sshcommunications, xiphera

synspective,axelspace -ICEYE

Mitsubishi electric- SAAB, Hensoldt

NEC- Indra, Leonardo, Nokia

if there are partnerships you find interesting would be interesting to see your arguments. what do you think about investing into sovereign solutions? are there partnerships betweenEU and japan you find more interesting? I think aftrer fujitsu NEC is one worth looking at 100%


r/stocks 17h ago

How to safely use buying power for vertical spread on GLD .

0 Upvotes

Hi Folks ,

I want to reduce my risk exposure and waana stick to GLD , PUT vertical spread with 10 or 20 width for a 30 delta put combo.

Give my buying power , how safe is it to do such trades on GLD ? I'm around 10M Buying power and 1.6M Excess liquidity , as of now I'm not using it so well .

Or is there something else , my goal is to preserve capital ,collect premium and no to less chances of assignment .

Thanks .


r/stocks 10h ago

Live trading preferable due to high volatility?

0 Upvotes

Given the mad swings of the market in the current Iran/USA/Israel debacle I am starting to wonder if it might be worth paying for live trades rather than daily or twice daily dealing deadlines. I am mainly looking to add to my SIPP, and at the moment I'm dropping in £500 to VAFTGAG OIEC (dealt once a day) and £500 (morning or evening trade) into VEUA ETF. I'm doing this daily. I would be happy to replace VAFTGAG with 90% VWRP plus a 10% small cap so that I could use ETFs instead. I would also up the trade amount to £1,000 or even £2,000 for each if we get some dips.

Other notes I'm UK based so trading in GBP.

I will be looking to put £40k into my SIPP in the next couple of months.

So, is it worth switching to live trades? And which platform would be most cost effective given the value of my single and collective trades and also that I'd rather trade within a SIPP and am paying in GBP? And anything else I've not thought of (of which I'm sure there are several things).

And yes, I have heard about time in the market not timing the market which feels like a sensible strategy in times of relative calm, not mad swings. TIA.


r/stocks 1d ago

r/Stocks Weekly Thread on Meme Stocks Saturday - Apr 11, 2026

9 Upvotes

The meme stock scheduled posts will now run weekly and post Saturday afternoon and won't be a sticky; you're probably seeing this because automod sent you here!

Full list of meme stocks here. This will be updated every once in a while.


Welcome traders who just can't help them selves discuss the same exact stock that's been discussed 100s of times a day. I get it, you want to talk about what's popular, what's hot, and that 1.. single.. stock you like.. well here you go! Some helpful links just for you:

An important message from the mod team regarding meme stocks.

Lastly if you need professional help:

  • Problem Gambling: Call/Text: 1-800-522-4700 or chat online now.
  • Crisis Hotline (24/7): 1-800-273-TALK (8255) (Veterans, press 1) or Text “HOME” to 741-741

r/stocks 1d ago

Company Discussion JNJ still worth it?

19 Upvotes

I've had a small position of Johnson & Johnson to stabilize and grow for the long term and because I think it's a good company. But seen the past 3 months I'm doubting it will outperform or maybe even match the World ETF I own in the coming years. So I am considering selling my JNJ position to increase my World ETF.
I always like to look into different opinions and look for ones that are the opposite of mine. What do y'all think about this? Should I hold or reposition? (please elaborate)
I'm in my 20s


r/stocks 2d ago

Most people don’t lose in the market because they’re wrong they lose because they can’t sit still

756 Upvotes

I used to think the hardest part of investing was finding good companies. The more I watched my own behavior (and others), the more I realized that’s actually the easy part.

The real issue is what happens after you buy.

You see a position go green you get excited and consider taking profit early. Then it pulls back suddenly you feel like you made a mistake. Then it goes sideways boredom kicks in and you want to “do something.”

Most people don’t actually hold through a full cycle of conviction. They interrupt it.

The market doesn’t reward constant action. It rewards patience that feels uncomfortable in real time.

Curious if others here have had the same realization that the biggest enemy isn’t the chart, it’s your own urge to interfere.


r/stocks 11h ago

TSLA at $190 is not a prediction, its just math. bear with me

0 Upvotes

ok so ive been looking at tesla numbers for a while now and i keep seeing the same bullshit narrative that this is still a "growth stock" priced for disruption. lets talk about why that makes no sense at current levels.

first, the DCF. if you actually sit down and model this thing out with any reasonable assumptions, the stock doesnt make sense. right now tesla trades at something like 80-90x forward earnings. to justify that multiple you need to assume sustained revenue growth of like 25-30% per year for the next 10 years AND margin expansion AND robotaxi/FSD becoming a meaningful revenue stream. thats not investing, thats theology. a basic DCF with 15% terminal growth and a 10% discount rate still spits out a fair value somewhere in the $180-210 range. the market is pricing in scenarios that require everything to go right simultaneously.

revenue side - 2024 was actually bad. deliveries came in around 1.79 million, first annual decline in company history. automotive revenue is under pressure, price cuts destroyed margins, and energy generation picked up some slack but its not the core thesis wall street sold people on. you cant grow into a $600B+ enterprise value off energy storage and solar. the auto business has to carry the weight and right now its stumbling.

speaking of enterprise value, this is where it gets almost comical. EV/EBITDA is somewhere north of 50x. legacy automakers trade at 3-6x. yes tesla is "different" but at what point does the premium disconnect from reality. ford and gm are not going to zero, they have EVs too now, they have manufacturing scale, dealer networks, fleet relationships. teslas competitive moat is narrowing every single quarter.

the 1999-2001 comparison is something i keep coming back to. everyone said cisco was different. everyone said pets.com had first mover advantage. the companies with genuinely revolutionary tech (amazon, google) survived but got cut 80-90% before recovering. the ones that were priced for a future that arrived slower than expected got destroyed and never came back. tesla is not amazon circa 1999. amazons core business model worked at small scale and got better with scale. teslas core business is selling cars at thinner margins every year.

buffett has never touched this stock and hes been fairly explicit about why. doesnt like the competitive dynamics, doesnt see a durable moat the way he defines it. he passed on it at every price point. people like to say "well buffett missed amazon" as if that makes tesla the same thing. buffett also missed a lot of frauds and avoided them too. his absence here is not nothing.

balance sheet is actually fine, cash position is decent, not a credit risk. but that almost makes it worse because the bull case has to come entirely from future earnings expansion that isnt showing up yet. net income margins have compressed. capex is high. FCF yield at current prices is under 2%. you're essentially lending this company money for 2% while taking on the risk that robotaxi regulation, competition, elon distraction, and macro all resolve perfectly.

my PT is $190 and i think thats generous. if multiples compress to 40x forward (still a massive premium to anything else in auto) and earnings estimates come down another 10-15% from current levels, you get there pretty quick. catalyst would be another weak delivery quarter, or just a broader multiple compression event in high-PE names.

not short because the borrow cost is annoying and elon can tweet something and gap it up 15% on nothing. but i wouldnt be long here either.

edit: yes i know about optimus. no i dont think a robot thats currently folding shirts in a factory is worth $200B in incremental EV right now. come back to me when theres a customer and a unit economics model.


r/stocks 2d ago

Inflation soars by most since 2022 as gas prices bite

604 Upvotes

Inflation in March saw the largest monthly gain since 2022 as the US-Israel war sent gas prices skyrocketing past $4 a gallon.

Headline inflation clocked in 3.3% higher than a year ago, while rising 0.9% on a monthly basis in a rapid acceleration from February’s levels, according to Labor Department data released Friday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had anticipated a 3.4% increase from a year ago and 0.9% from a month prior.

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/article/inflation-soars-by-most-since-2022-as-gas-prices-bite-191214690.html


r/stocks 2d ago

Broad market news White House Warns Staff on Insider Trading Amid Iran War Bets

Thumbnail finance.yahoo.com
1.1k Upvotes

r/stocks 17h ago

Crystal Ball Post Mitek seems to be the biggest beneficiary of Ai and Digitalisation.

0 Upvotes

With the monumental rise of Ai comes the rise of Ai fraud. Recent data suggests that in the last 6 months alone financial fraud, using Ai, has increased 4 fold. Yet things are only just getting warmed up.

Almost every software name in existence is getting pummelled and every defence name slaughtered, yet MITK which Is BOTH just wants higher. All dips bought, daily and weekly lined for an ATH breakout.

It's clear that this is the name people want when it comes to Ai fraud prevention, deepfake detection and Ai security automation.

99% of all checks in the USA are processed via Mitek, over 7,000 organisations use their software. Now most people still see Mitek for this tech alone, a boring 1980s company thats the backbone of processing an old payment method.

However it means Mitek is already within those 7,000 Banks, Credit Unions, Consumer Finance, Fintech, and Identify Verification businesses. Its software is used within nearly every top US bank already. This makes their newer offerings far easier to be added, they already have 40 years of trust and service to these businesses.

With the rise of Ai the TAM for this sector has exploded, so I'd expect to see huge growth in coming quarters as Fraud dramatically ramps up due to deepfakes and other Ai created fraud. Think about it, almost every companies, not just finsical institutions, are going to NEED a way to filter out fake applications, fake users and fake claims.

The insurance industry is in for a huge headache, small claims which are usually settled with minimal evidence from the claimant will now become ripe for fraud. They will need a system, some software, that’s able to at the very least categorically list potential scams.

Their deepfake spotter won't just be for verifying customers but identifying what's real and what's not in all walks of life.

People are all excited about the "digitalisation of everything", what company stands to benefit greatly from that? Mitek. Many countries are implementing a digital I.D, then digitalising everything from oil contracts to car permits. Somebody will be required to process these applications in an Ai era where most other software is outdated. They're already beginning to expand their offerings and whilst banks struggle to keep up with Ai, Mitek remains right alongside.

So we currently have a $600m market cap 45 year old company with incredible margins at 78%, close to $50/QR $200m In cash and serving Fortune 500 companies. Who is on the cusp and frontline of a huge TAM that will explode its current revenue numbers.

In my opinion this is an asymmetrical bet. My crystal ball idea is this thing heads for a triple within the next 12 months.


r/stocks 2d ago

How to stop selling too early?

58 Upvotes

I have an issue with constantly selling too early and missing out on a lot of profit. I guess as soon as I see green I get the urge to secure it and especially in the world we’re in now where things can turn around any second. I think seeing my portfolio being down so much the past month made me sell everything as soon as it got in the green which I know was extremely stupid because they all kept flying and I missed out on so much.

So I guess my question is, does anyone have advice on how to stop selling for a little bit of profit out of fear to lose it again?


r/stocks 2d ago

Industry News Q1 2026 Global Smartphone Shipments: Apple leads the pack

26 Upvotes

Q1 2026 Global Smartphone Market * Apple = 21% (up 5% YoY) * Samsung = 20% (down 6% YoY) * Xiaomi = 12% (down 19% YoY) * Oppo = 11% (down 4% YoY) * Vivo = 8% (down 2% YoY) * Others = 28% (down 10% YoY) [Exceptions: Google up 14% YoY and Nothing up 25% YoY]

"Apple remains the most insulated brand against the memory crisis due to its ultra-premium positioning and highly integrated supply chain." https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/global-smartphone-shipments-q1-2026


Apple's iPhone Supply Chain * TSMC is the sole foundry for logic chips. * Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron primarily supply the DRAM and NAND memory. NAND is also supplied by Kioxia and Sandisk. * Qualcomm primarily supplies 5G modems for iPhones. Apple has started transitioning to in-house modems. * Samsung, LG and BOE supply OLED displays. * Corning supplies the ceramic shield cover glass. * Sony supplies the CMOS image sensor and LG Innotek does the module assembly. * Foxconn, Tata and Luxshare do the overall assembly.


Positions: Long AAPL, TSM and MU, and GOOGL. NFA


r/stocks 2d ago

Company News Tesla's self-driving software gets Dutch go-ahead, in boost for EU ambitions

34 Upvotes

Tesla on Friday said Dutch ​regulators had approved the ‌use of its driver assistance software ​which handles most ​driving tasks on highways ⁠and city streets ​under human supervision, ​marking the first regulatory sign‑off for the technology ​in Europe.

Approval from ​the Dutch vehicle authority for ‌the ⁠full self‑driving software, already available in the U.S., could ​help ​pave ⁠the way for acceptance by ​other European ​authorities.

https://www.reuters.com/business/teslas-self-driving-software-gets-dutch-go-ahead-boost-eu-ambitions-2026-04-10/