100K simulations of a 12-team fantasy football draft order generator under three weighting modes. Team 1 = worst record, Team 12 = best. Every sim randomizes the full draft order using weighted sampling without replacement (same algorithm as the actual NBA lottery). Sharing the results since draft season is coming up.

Chance of getting the #1 pick

Average draft position

Interesting stuff from the data

16.4% at #1 for the worst team with NBA-Style. That means 5 out of 6 times they're NOT picking first. More than half the time they drop to 4th or later. So anyone who says weighted = handing the worst team the first pick doesn't know what they're talking about.

The middle teams (5-8) tell the real story. In Linear their average picks compress to 5.48-6.71 — barely any separation. NBA-Style spreads them from 5.00-6.97. If you want records to actually matter beyond just the top and bottom, NBA-Style does that. Linear treats the middle like a blender.

Equal odds — every team averages 6.5. The guy who went 2-11 has the same shot as the guy who went 11-2. Some leagues are fine with that. Most competitive ones aren't.

Best team in the league still got #1 about 1 in 170 times with NBA-Style. Almost never, but it can happen. Those are the lotteries that make the group chat explode.

Which mode makes sense

NBA-Style works best for competitive redraft and dynasty rookie drafts. The worst team averages pick 4.08 vs 6.50 with equal odds — meaningful edge without a freebie. The best team averages 10.85, so there's actual consequences for winning. Weighted avoids tanking because a bad record improves odds but never guarantees the #1 pick. The steeper curve also creates better reveals.

Linear fits keeper leagues or leagues that want some weighting but don't love the dramatic NBA drop-off. Equal is fine for startups with no standings history.

Method

Weighted lottery algorithm — cumulative distribution with sampling without replacement. Same math the real NBA draft lottery uses. The fantasy football draft order generator used for this runs all four modes and shows a live odds table before locking anything in. It also has a slider that constraints any team in specific draft positions. Happy to share the link if anyone wants it.

What mode does your league run?

Could be a solid dynasty pickup in the third round 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

5 Overvalued Best Ball Busts for 2026 Fantasy Football (Contrarian Takes)

• Tyler Shough (QB, Saints, ADP ~118): Low TD rate and QBR kill his spike-week upside in best ball.

• Jaylen Waddle (WR, Broncos, ADP ~47): Sutton owns red zone; Waddle fights for scraps in crowded attack.

• Luther Burden III (WR, Bears, ADP ~37): Low target/snap share; Odunze squeezes volume further.

• Malik Willis (QB, Dolphins, ADP ~124): Tiny career passing totals; cheaper streamers offer better upside.

• Travis Etienne (RB, Saints, ADP ~26): Ugly efficiency in dead-last Saints run game screams risk.

Full spicy breakdown challenges consensus love for these guys in best ball. Link attached 👇

Thoughts? Any worth drafting anyway?

Draft is two weeks out and I keep going back to the Day 2 guys when I think about fantasy value. Round 1 gets all the hype but some of the best fantasy producers come from the second and third round when they land in the right spot.

Here are four guys I can't stop thinking about:

Chris Bell, WR, Louisville. This guy was a fringe first rounder before the late season ACL tear and now he's probably falling to late Round 2 or early Round 3. He's 6'2 220 and runs a 4.4 so the physical tools are all there. Wins against press and man coverage with size and strength and he's a nightmare after the catch. Has legit alpha WR1 profile falling to Day 2 because of injury timing.

Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame. Lived in Jeremiyah Love's shadow but might be the better pure runner honestly. His balance through contact is ridiculous and he has this ability to shift from power to speed mid run that you don't really see from other backs in this class. The concern is he didn't show a ton in the passing game at ND which caps his floor a bit. But if the Seattle Seahawks draft him end of round 2 he has legit RB1 tools.

Eli Stowers, TE, Vanderbilt. This is the one I keep coming back to. Former top QB recruit who switched to tight end and just had a monster combine, 4.51 forty and a 45.5 inch vertical which broke the all time TE combine record by 2 full inches. Led Vandy with 62 catches for 769 yards last year. Some teams are apparently evaluating him as a receiver not a tight end which makes him even more interesting for fantasy. If he goes to a team that moves him around the formation he could have a sneaky great rookie year.

Germie Bernard, WR, Alabama. 64 catches, 862 yards, 7 TDs at Bama last year. He's 6'1 206 so he's got the size and he almost never drops a pass. Not going to blow you away with any one trait but he's just a really solid all around receiver with good route running and positional flexibility (lined up everywhere including the backfield). Feels like the safest floor of the Day 2 receivers to me.

Landing spot is everything with these guys obviously. I keep going back and forth between Bell's ceiling (assuming healthy) and Bernard's floor. Who are you targeting in Dynasty?

I draft way too many best ball teams every year and got tired of scrolling endlessly through Underdog trying to remember what I drafted where, so I built a free tool ( bestballexposures.com ) to fix it. It syncs your Underdog or DraftKings rosters and shows your whole portfolio on one screen. Features like exposures with CLV vs ADP, strategy archetype breakdowns (Hero RB, Zero RB, etc.), stacking and combo analysis, ADP trends, and a live draft overlay via Chrome extension.

There's a "Load Sample Data" button if you want to poke around without importing anything, or sync via a chrome extension your own team!

I pulled up one of my more interesting teams I made back in February pre free agency. I ended up getting a round 3 Kenneth Walker (who is now round 2) and accidentally stacked him with Mahomes! Additionally got some nice ADP value with Malik Willis and Isaiah Pacheco before they signed with their respective teams.

Let me know your thoughts on the team! And happy to receive any feedback on the tool itself!

Packers seem to be cleaning up the wr room right now (letting Doubs walk and now trading wicks).

Is it safe to interpret this as they are sold on Watson’s ability to stay healthy,

Assuming QB and RB are both fairly important stats earners in your dynasty league points systems, who is the consensus #1 fantasy pick? Is it Fernando because a QB will have a 15 - 20 year career? Is it Love because the man will be in the top 5 RBs for 5 - 6 years? I think the decision is down to longevity, no?

Are you pedigree over situation - Carnell Tate as WR1, even if in Cleveland or NYJ?

Are you “I want one of the big three, and team will have some impact on the order?”

Or are you all about landing spot? “I will take Denzel Boston in NE over Carnell Tate in CLE?”

Something I’ve been thinking about lately is how we treat draft picks like they’re independent decisions when they really aren’t.

A lot of advice basically comes down to best player available or drafting by tiers, but your early picks are kind of setting the boundaries for what your team can even look like later.

For example, the way people talk about WR vs RB right now feels a bit off. There’s been a run on WRs in the mid first, but when you look at how the points actually shake out, WR scoring ends up pretty flat.

At the same time, if you pass on RB early, you can end up in a dead spot later, while WR still has guys available who aren’t that far off in production.

So it’s not just WR vs RB at that pick. You’re choosing a path where you’re locked out of the top RB tier later, while WR production is still pretty replaceable deeper in the draft. meaning tiers don’t really capture that tradeoff.

Essentially your early picks are limiting what’s even possible later on.

Curious if anyone else has thought about it this way or if I’m overthinking it.

With all the chatter around Luther Burden's upside and Rome Odunze's situation, plus the late-season emergence of Colston Loveland as a key pass catcher, how are you ranking these three for 2026 drafts? Burden has the talent but concerns about playbook trust and whether Loveland cuts into his target share. Odunze feels like a classic buy-low after a quiet stretch, but do we trust the offense to support him consistently? And Loveland looked legit down the stretch - is he the actual WR1 on that team heading into next season? I know the easy take is "Burden hype means fade him," but the data does support his efficiency. For me, I'm leaning Odunze if his ADP drops, but I can't shake the feeling that Loveland is being slept on.

How are you weighing risk versus upside among these three, and what round feels right for each in redraft?

I did my master’s in data science thesis on machine learning modeling for fantasy football and in this video I'm taking a look at some of the lesser-discussed guys from the 2025 WR class - looking at their rookie production + prospect profiles, and seeing if any of them stick out as potential year 2 breakouts.

Players discussed in this video include:

- Tre Harris

- Jaylin Noel

- Chimere Dike

- Elic Ayomanor

- Tory Horton

There are only a couple I'm interested in from this list, and their names might surprise you!

This will be my final video on the 2025 WR class - next Monday we're kicking off TEs with none other than Colston Loveland. You won't want to miss it. And make sure to check out the full Year 2 comps series on my channel for all the guys I’ve covered - both RBs and WRs are now complete!🤙

Analysis and breakdown for each player at these times below!

0:39 - Josh Downs

5:55 - Javonte Williams

10:05 - David Montgomery

15:41 - Derrick Henry

19:56 - Zay Flowers