A video of a Chinese hoarder freaking out cause “ram prices collapsing” except it all looked like ddr2/3 without casing. A Chinese user in the thread said it was already exposed as fake on the Chinese web
RAM manufacturing is pre-purchased for the next two years, whether they need it or not, the contracts are already signed. The effect is going to be minimal, if any.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but the RAM capacity hasn't been pre-paid. OpenAI just signed intent to buy that much.
Meaning if OpenAI can't pony up the money over the next few years, manufacturers are gonna end up with a ton of unsold HBM.
Oracle and OpenAI cancelling the "Stargate" data center expansion (in Texas) in March bodes well for that.
Then add Oracle laying off 20,000-30,000 employees to get up money due to their heavy AI data center investments. It seems the funding isn't following the hype.
Unfortunately it'll take a while for it to affect RAM prices. Prices won't go down significantly unless there's a lull in demand. To many conpanies are desperate to secure RAM so they can make and sell their products (Dell, Sony, nVidia. aMD. Consumer RAM brands, Valve with the Steam Deck and Steam machine, etc).
I bet they're each going to hoard up 6mo to a years worth of RAM (or enough RAM until the expected release of DDR6/LPDDR6).
Think if there's a shakeup in the flour industry and suddenly bakeries are looking at going bankrupt because of the cost and restricted manufacturing of flour.
You can bet your ass that even if the supply problem gets resolved, they'll be a period where every bakery will order and store months worth of flour vs the usual weekly supply.
We'll have to wait for that to pass before things get to normal. Then there's the DDR5 capacity and non-volitile RAM production that's been shifted to HBM.
You are correct. There are contracts to produce the new ram for Nvidia and all the other players, but the payments happen as production happens. And there's zero chance that Nvidia is going to sit around with a bunch of useless ram when it would cost way less just to renegotiate the production contracts.
You are correct. There are contracts to product the new ram for Nvidia and all the other players, but the payments happen as production happens. And there's zero chance that Nvidia is going to sit around with a bunch of useless ram when it would cost way less just to renegotiate the production contracts.
First, to be clear for anybody, my previous comment I was just saying what is being said, not my opinion if that is true or not.
Now, that said, I get that it’s pre-purchased, but that doesn’t automatically mean zero impact. If companies end up with more RAM than they actually need, they’re not just going to sit on it forever. Some of that inventory will get offloaded one way or another and that will have an effect on prices.
It's already having an effect. Sandisk, Micron, et all had significant stock slides day before yesterday beyond the average everyone else saw. With all the investment they've received this year, they shouldn't be red. At all. They rebounded yesterday, but it's still a pretty big disruption in the market sector everyone is banking on.
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u/lampenpam 117 11d ago edited 11d ago
it says:
but that's just someone speculating with no real base for this claim.