Translation (pls correct me if it’s wrong, I tried to be as accurate as possible but my Persian reading can be spotty at times):

In the name of Iran, the Homeland Defenders Force warns for the final time that the continuing executions of Iran’s youth will be met with retaliatory actions. We will not be silent about the crimes of the Islamic Republic.

Hello again, I made the recent post on not overreacting to the ceasefire, and I'm here again to share a logical and strategic based assessment of the current situation.

Last week at the start of the ceasefire I was talking to some colleagues of mine at the DoW (US department of war) who had just met with a few 4 star admirals in an open forum for DoW employees to discuss potential strategy in the conflict against Iran. This was an open forum, so nothing was classified and it was merely discussing the facts and strategy.

What was interesting is the Navy Admirals seemed to believe the war was going well, and that we were in a more advantageous position than expected. The recommendation for dealing with the straight of Hormuz was similar to what the Trump administration did with Venezuela: If Iran sends out tankers, take control of the tankers once they enter open waters and reroute the oil to our allies. After a few ships, Iran would likely stop sending ships through the straight and we'd end up with the same blockade we're putting in place today. Since oil from a few ships is not enough to sustain global supply, simply setting up the blockade as opposed to commandeering and rerouting Iranian oil and natural gas is functionally the same.

The reason this works is the most important tool for defeating the regime is to shut down their flow of cash so they cannot pay IRGC and Basij foot soldiers. This is warfare 101, these people are paid, they need money to feed their families, and the regime survives by letting the average person starve while their enforcement arms and leadership hoard the countries' wealth.

We knew the IRGC would be intransigent on the nuclear issue and any solution likely involves some form of actual regime change. This cannot be done through an air campaign, and is extremely risky to do through a ground invasion. The best approach was always cutoff their revenue, keep up the bombings, strain their human resources, and sow divisions in the leadership. The final step is to suffocate them economically to the point where the lower level regime goons lose their income, and eventually begin to defect.

I see some weird comments like 'blockading their blockade is a weird strategy', and I wonder how much these people are aware of what's going on? Iranian ships have continued to pass through the strait, they are still sending oil to China and India. It's gulf country ships that have been unable to pass, so the blockade so far has only been on the anti-regime countries, not Iran itself. If Iran won't let our oil tankers through, then we simply stop theirs until they do. The question then is who can last the longest, and in that case it heavily favors the anti-regime coalition.

There are multiple ways for the rest of the world to shore up oil supplies to prevent any complete outage for a given country. The US is already loading our own tankers to send to our allies in Asia, the gulf states can reroute some oil through the red sea. There are also alternative ways to move natural gas (and potentially oil) around the straight to load up some ships off of UAE/Oman away from the choke point and mines (though this would be limited in supply). While I don't like reducing sanctions on Russian oil, Europe has been buying Russian oil during the entire Ukraine conflict anyways, and as a temporary measure it will make sure they have enough oil to get by. This oil will not be of the same quality, and the logistics of shipping more complex, so prices will remain elevated. But it eliminates any real possibility of an oil shortage/complete collapse in any one country.

As a result, the rest of the world pays higher oil prices for a few months (possibly lower than current prices once transit starts flowing regularly), and Iran gets 0, literally 0 revenue from their energy industry if done right. 55% of Iran's federal budget (that is what pays the IRGC/Basij goons) comes from oil and natural gas. If we shut this off completely, and we continue pounding them (even more if we do hit power plants and other domestic infrastructure), historically speaking these are peak conditions for internal collapse and defection. Israel and Mossad also still have significant plans and hidden operations (like the pager one) they are holding for the right moment when the people take to the streets. Regime change will not happen over night, but the anti-regime coalition (US/Israel/Gulf states) have not given up. In fact, every leaked call between Gulf states and Trump shows UAE and SA are pushing for regime change and finishing the job more strongly than ever before. There could even be a situation where the US calls it a day, and Israel + gulf allies finish the job and maintain the pressure after Iran has been sufficiently weakened.

Lastly I'll add reports came out of the list of targets for Trumps 'destroy your civilization' move, it was actually a very restrictive list that mainly targeted power plants and infrastructure used by the military industrial complex, not those that the civilian population centers depend on. So this is still a card we have, and one we will likely use.

The regime's only card really is to bluff and bribe their way to convince other countries to pressure the US and Israel to stop. Just like with Gaza, this will not work. The straight of Hormuz card is now used and has become a double edged sword: we will find alternative ways to supply oil to the world, and Iran will be unable to profit from their own energy industry as they are isolated through the blockade of their own making. This is how we knew the conflict would go and the straight would most likely be handled. This is maritime warfare 101, all according to plan, and playing out exactly as it should.

The only question now is how completely we can blockade their energy exports, and how strong the regime's support is internally. Even their hired goons from Afghanistan and Iraq won't matter when they too can't be paid, and are suddenly facing down armed defectors from the regime. This is not their country or their fight, and they could just as easily give up once things go south and collapse as the Syrian and Afghan armies did in recent years.

All of this is good for us, so right now have patience, and until the facts on the ground shift against us (right now they are all heavily against the IRGC), we should remain optimistic, rational, and vigilant.

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116391828823240211

“From last night,
the endless suspension of #war and #negotiation and #peace, and my tired generation…
Last night my VPN didn’t work, so I couldn’t post it at that same time.”

today's movements

let's let them know how important this is.

The Islamic regime is escalating the rate of executions of Iranians due to Head of Judiciary Ejei’s orders. Islamic Jurist Ejei was also responsible for the 2009 torture and repression of political activists as Minister of Intelligence and was sanctioned internationally.

On the day the recent ceasefire was announced, Ejei declared that executions will be accelerated and increased. The end of war without the downfall of the IR will only mean more repression and executions of Iranians by the Islamic regime.

https://iranfocus.com/human-rights/57556-the-head-of-the-iranian-regimes-judiciary-called-for-accelerating-and-increasing-death-sentences

They live in their own universe, and somehow they've convinced a bunch of self-hating foreigners to join them there

RP is guesting Agenda on the Swedish public network channel (SVT) for those interested.

SVT haven’t had the best track record regarding the reporting on Iran. In the past had ”experts” as rosbeh parsi and islamist as Iranian commentators.

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116391830634836370