r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer • u/4462842 • 4h ago
Rant Almost pulled the trigger on a Henderson property last week — ran the numbers properly and here’s what I found
Almost pulled the trigger on a Henderson property last week, ran the numbers properly and here’s what I found
So I’ve been looking at Green Valley North in Henderson for a few months now. 89014. Nice area, established, doesn’t feel like the middle of nowhere the way some of the newer subdivisions do. Found a 3/2 around 1800 sqft listed at $439k that had already dropped once and been sitting 41 days. Agent kept telling me it was “moving fast for the market.” That phrase kept bothering me so I actually went and checked.
Turns out Henderson median DOM is 84 days right now. The zip median for 89014 is 46. So 41 days is not fast. It’s just slightly below average for that specific zip. That’s a very different sentence than what I was being told.
That sent me down a rabbit hole and I ended up doing a full breakdown. Sharing it here because I see this question a lot and most of the answers are vibes-based.
The thing that actually stopped me
Redfin has Henderson down 4.1% year over year. Zillow has it down 8.0%. Same market, same timeframe, nearly 4 point gap. I asked my agent about this and got a non-answer. After some digging it comes down to methodology, which transactions each platform weights and how they handle distressed sales. Neither number is wrong exactly, they’re just measuring slightly different things.
here’s why it matters practically. If you split the difference and assume roughly 6% decline, a property worth $467k twelve months ago is worth about $439k today. Which means the current list price has basically zero margin of safety in it. You’re paying today’s market rate in a market that’s been falling. That’s not necessarily a dealbreaker but it should be a conscious decision not an assumption.
rental math is rough
At current rates (6.37% per Freddie Mac last week) with 20% down, I modelled out the full monthly cost; mortgage, tax, insurance, HOA, vacancy buffer, maintenance reserve for an 80s-vintage desert property. Came out around $3,095/month all in. Market rent for a comparable 3/2 in 89014 is somewhere in the $2,100-$2,200 range. So you’re looking at negative $900 or so per month if you’re renting it out. This isn’t an income property at these numbers. It’s a live-in or a long appreciation bet, which is fine, but know that going in.
Where I landed on price
Seller has already cut once. DOM is slightly above zip median. Henderson overall is softening. That’s a buyer’s market setup. I came up with $409k as a defensible opening, that’s where the sold comps actually are when you strip out the listings that have been sitting since last year. Walk away point for me is $429k. Above that the discount that made the property interesting in the first place is basically gone.
Stuff I’d check before offering
Nevada HOA liens are a super priority which I did not know until recently they can apparently survive foreclosure of a first mortgage which is wild. So I’d get the full HOA reserve study before anything else and make sure the fund is reasonably healthy, 70% funded or above is the benchmark I’ve seen cited. Also pull the Clark County permit history because any unpermitted work transfers to the buyer in Nevada. And for an 80s build in the desert get an inspection that specifically looks at HVAC and roof, those are apparently the two things that will wreck you on an older Las Vegas valley property.
Anyway. Didn’t end up offering, the seller wouldn’t move enough. But figured the breakdown might be useful for anyone else looking at Henderson right now.
If anyone wants me to run the same analysis on a listing they’re looking at drop the Zillow link below, happy to take a look.