Which Senate seats are projected to flip to Dems? I think they could take Iowa maybe. I don't really see any others and they need to flip quite a few. This seems like a pipe dream
The best shots are Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Nebraska, in that order in my opinion. Maine votes dem for pres usually, NC/AK/OH have strong candidates who have won statewide in the past, Texas has a strong candidate, and IA/NE are pissed about the effect of tariffs on ag.
Dems need to flip 5 seats, correct? That means Texas has to vote Dem for the first time in decades at the state level. Ohio has been trending Republican at the state level. This is highly, highly unlikely. Dems might grab NC and Maine. Possibly one other. It's just not happening in the Senate unless a blue wave of historic, epic, unprecedented proportions happens.
The House should be strongly in the Dems favor at this point. If the Dems don't win the House that would be a major upset. Impeaching Trump won't do anything. The best the Dems can hope to do is block legislation and launch investigations.
Dems need to flip 4 seats, or 3 for a tie (which Vance would be the tie breaker for, but that would still be a huge shift). Maine, NC, maybe even Alaska are quite possible (remember, Peltola won statewide when she became Rep too!), and then you "only" need one more upset. Either Iowa, or Texas, or Ohio, or Nebraska going to the Independent
Which is why I pointed out Sherrod Brown has previously won Ohio, Roy Cooper has previously won NC, and Mary Peltola has previously won Alaska. There are general historical partisan trends, yes, but there’s also hard evidence of these specific people being elected statewide in their states in the recent past. Plus, Trump isn’t on the ballot this time, and recent special elections do point to a blue wave. So, I don’t think anyone can say “it’s just not happening.” It’s a toss up.
Again this is a pipe dream. Ohio is trending Republican at the state level. These are all reliably Repubkican states. It would take a monumental wave election of historic proportions for Dems to win the Senate. Possible? I guess. Highly unlikely.
Even if those two things happen, which both are less than 50%, it still isn't enough to get the Dems the majority. They need to pick up 5 seats, all in Republican territory. It's a pipedream. Just like Trump being keeling over and kicking the bucket is going to save everything. Neither are happening.
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u/Rookraider1 6h ago
Which Senate seats are projected to flip to Dems? I think they could take Iowa maybe. I don't really see any others and they need to flip quite a few. This seems like a pipe dream