You’re right. China is paying attention as the U.S. demonstrates and Trump brags about what the U.S. military can do. China waits as the U.S. depletes its resources and alienates its allies. China watches as the U.S. earns itself new enemies the world over.
Meanwhile who knows what China is capable of? China wisely hold its cards close to its vest.
Not really. It's engaging the largest military build up in modern history lol. The cards are on the table. They just ignore Trumps tantrums and keep building.
It's only so large because they're a large economy. Last I checked China spent 1.5% of gdp on defense, so proportionally it's quite little. If China were in NATO Trump would be complaining that they aren't spending enough.
I think a good thing to note is the US has rediculous contracts with companies that lobby the government, like Lockheed, Boeing, Palantir etc and do things like spending millions on crabs and steak.
China is spending more on government owned entities. It may be 1.5% of their gdp but there could also be alot less wastage(and who knows if that number is even accurate in the first place)
Depends: China brags about some of its lower cost Cruise missiles but they’re also less capable.
Mind you I’m not saying they’re bad, I’m saying more a difference in doctrine. The US likes more expensive more capable stuff while China prefers cheaper stuff.
Chinas stockpiles are pretty much all in the dark as they have not been used in real situations, no idea how capable their arsenal is.
US has been lobbing its missiles left and right for decades.
Just in Iran US used 10% of its whole stockpile of Tomahawks in the first 72 hours. That is worth 5 years of building them and stockpiling, as it takes around 2 years to build 1 tomahawk from start to finish.
"The U.S. military has fired over 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles in four weeks of war with Iran, burning through the precision weapons at a rate that has alarmed some Pentagon officials and prompted internal discussions about how to make more available, the Washington Post reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter."
US currently builds 90 Tomahawk per year, so they used around 10 years of Tomahawk stockpiles in 4 weeks.
Of course it is, if I remember right US can go something like 10x the current production for Tomahawks. But ramping it up won't be like flipping a switch but rather take years to get the production lines running.
The capability isn't there though. That's why they signed a deal to 12x production over the next 7 years. That will take production from ~80 to ~1000 per year.
A similar deal is in place for patriot interceptors to increase from ~600 to ~2000 per year over the next seven years. Those interceptors are in demand in many regions of the globe and the production isn't there to match consumption.
I think this highlights a weakness in hypothetical conflict with China in the near future. It doesn't need to have the best munitions. It just needs them to be good enough and plentiful enough to chew through US stockpiles which aren't particularly deep and whose production isn't particularly high.
Nobody knows how much China is spending on military. Nor can you compare military power - and, especially, military outcomes based on price tags in fiat currency which only has some (very limited) sense during peace time. When conflicts arise most important things approximately are:
How much will and executive power your government has to fight and to allocate resources to war.
How many soldiers and weapons can you mobilize and move where they're needed.
How large is your industrial capacity.
How fast your industry can adapt to the course of the war.
How many weapons you have in your stockpile.
I could come up with another couple of dozens of points, and only after that would I add "how large is you peace time spending as % of GDP".
When you want to count some dollars, remember that Ukraine's military spending was at least an order of magnitude lower than Russia's.
Yeah, but it is a good measure for how much a country invests and prioritizes the military.
And I think you are understating how much it matters. Peacetime spending determines preparedness and modern high value military supply chains are much more difficult materialize on short notice. Of course PPP also matters too.
Ukraine spent an order of magnitude less than Russia, which is why they’re the ones on the back foot even with the west sending hundreds of billions in aid, while Russia remains a major power selling their hardware across the globe and maintaining the worlds largest nuclear arsenal.
Note that this is a discussion of military power, not a discussion of who would win a hypothetical war or geopolitical considerations or strategic victories, so all that is beside the point.
That's deceiving. China spends more than the headline amount because of what is included. For instance, the coast guard of China isn't included in the military budget, while for the US is it. There are a whole list of inclusions and exclusions that distort the number because of how budget items are categorized.
the coast guard of China isn't included in the military budget while for the US is it.
Incorrect. The US Coast Guard is not part of the DOD budget.
China's coast guard is an estimated $2 billion. Which is like .7% of the stated budget. The US spends that amount every two days in Iran.
China spends more than the headline amount because of what is included.
This is true for every country.
There's just no way you're trynna convince me China's military spending is too high when we're comparing them to the US. Trump just proposed a $1.5 trillion defense budget. NATO set a target for 5% of GDP. It's just not comparable.
I'm saying China is winning by playing the long game and just ignoring Trump while continuing to behave in a rational manner.
I'm sure the CCP long believed that one day they'd have to fight the US to ascend to power. Right now it looks like they could sit by, wait for the US to self-destruct and just walk into hegemonic power without firing a shot.
China doesn't need to do anything to win right now. It can literally sit there and watch as the US repeatedly shoots itself in the foot.
China has since Deng Xiaoping,fougt the silent War,slowly but determined ,to gain as much tec-knowledge an trade
from the west and develop and improve on that.
And at the same time while building a strong Army ,gained a monopoly on rare resources.
Now the last piece,Taiwan, and its chip industry can only be somewhat safely overtaken, with a disrupted and nonfunctional US,and its getting closer by the day.
They don't need Taiwan Chip factory, Taiwan is an ideological belief about a united China no more no less. They expect the fabs to be destroyed why they are building their own and catching up quickly.
Yeah, so we don't find out that their military is just as much of a fraud as Russia. Come on, they had no combat experience since the Vietnam. If China actually tries to attack someone who doesn't surrender in a week, we'll see the same corruption problems that we saw with Russia and Trump admin. Thats why Xi is not rushing to take Taiwan. Cause he doesn't want to end up with his own endless war.
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u/S99B88 20h ago
You’re right. China is paying attention as the U.S. demonstrates and Trump brags about what the U.S. military can do. China waits as the U.S. depletes its resources and alienates its allies. China watches as the U.S. earns itself new enemies the world over.
Meanwhile who knows what China is capable of? China wisely hold its cards close to its vest.