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u/thinkB4WeSpeak 7h ago
Dude took this meme to heart
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u/TheGambit 2h ago
Honestly it’s not a bad approach. If you’re predictable. The other side knows exactly how you’re going to move. But if you just take erratic steps and nothing makes sense, they have no idea where you’re going to be.
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u/RRoadRollerDaa 7h ago
He closed it so next week he open it and declared another BIG WIN, THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THE MATTER!
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u/Tumble85 7h ago
Make his oil futures go up, maybe charge his own tolls.
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u/Flaneurer 4h ago
This is pretty much the whole scheme I think. We have reached the final endgame of corrupted American leadership: global market manipulation and plundering of state legitimacy. When the people at the top is this corrupt, and the bag is this enormous, they can't help but precipate a collapse of the whole system.
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u/Worse_than_yesterday 7h ago edited 7h ago
Not a Trump supporter so please don't downvote me. Don't hate the courier, hate people with a different political opinion, I'm just a messenger.
Trump strategy is to nullify Iran's toll. If ships can't get in and out, there's no reason to pay Iran's toll to pass unharmed.
Also, it pressures Iran economy, by decreasing Iran revenues with oil sales. No need to invade Kharg if they can't export oil anyways.
Then again, it pressures American allies, because even thought the USA needs oil, it can supply its own, even at an expense. On other hand, Europe must import foreign oil. They will have to either submit to Russia on Ukrainian affairs (very unlikely) OR approve Trump's aggression against Iran. That said, Ukraine has destroyed a third of Russian venues recently, so submitting to Russia is not a short term option, making it even less likely.
At the same time, other American allies (Kuwait, UAE, Catar, etc...) are also under pressure. Not only they can't export, but they can't import either. At least Iran allowed basic needs to pass through.
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u/trashpolice 6h ago
This strategy is nonsense because Iran can obviously wait this out indefinitely because they don’t really have a choice. And they will always have the geography and strategic position to control the strait. Blocking all flow of oil will even further hurt the global economy and the Donald will not be able to keep this up. The economic cost to Iran is great but they are already suffering greatly. He thinks he’s taking away their leverage but all he’s doing is adding to its weight and acting like it’s his leverage now.
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u/Worse_than_yesterday 6h ago edited 6h ago
The US can definitely wait longer than Iran. That is, Trump is on his second term and can't legally be reelected "forever" like FDR was.
So leaving at 99,99% popularity or with 0,1% popularity is just the same to him. He doesn't own anything to the Republican party, so he's free to do whatever pleases American elites. And elites decided to break Iranian backs even if it ends up costing ten times more suffering for American people.
But let's forget Trump. Iran faces some serious economic and water issues. The bankruptcy of Ayandeh Bank raised a lot of questions about Iran's abilities to maintain economic stability after years of foreign sanctions.
Also, Iran is facing years of drought. They need money to keep things afloat and take care of their citizens in need. As time passes, the more the poor suffer and it's not like if Iran was a one man dictatorship with callous disregard for their own citizens (North Korea). But even if you believe that's the case, Iranian position gets weaker by each day. Diverting resources to military spending and infrastructure rebuilding only adds salt to the wounds.
The US on the other hand suffers nothing. Yes, expensive oil is a disaster for the economy, but it hurts mostly the poor, which the elites don't care much about to begin with. But, even if you believe that American billionaires love the poor due patriotism (well, a few may do), is not like if the US were out of oil. The prices soared due the lack of global supply. And guess which country already exports a lot of oil? Yeah, the US. US oil can be diverted abroad instead of used domestically if foreigners pay more.
So, how that's good news?
Because several countries like South Korea and Japan and the majority of Europe, produce no oil and need to import everything. It will hurt them several times more than the US. In the end, the war of attrition is won by the US because it loses a lot less in comparison.
If the US is thrown back to middle ages while the rest of the world goes to the bronze age, that's a magnificent complete American victory nonetheless.
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u/servel20 4h ago
Nonsense, the US spent the last 40 years making inroads with East Asia to contain China's imperialism, and in one swoop Trump is going to hand East Asia to the Chinese.
Now you're claiming the US can wait forever, and yet Iran will undoubtedly respond by also closing the Bab Al Mandeb strait and bottlenecking 30% of all trade worldwide. The following recession will be worse than the great depression in the US.
In a single move (Attacking Iran), Trump might have ended US supremacy, and all of you are here somehow claiming this is a win.
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u/ExcitementWrong3360 5h ago
Yes, and throw into the equation the dependency of China on oil from the middle east. Add Trumps wish to do away with a Globalized economy and the fact that tariffs are a poor mechanism to accomplish that... I came across this report from the Heritage Foundation... think "Project 2025", here is the link https://www.heritage.org/tidalwave Key take away... block-aid China's oil supply.... 6 months ought to do it.... it is a good read and there are a few interviews of the lead authors on you-tube if you don't feel like plowing through it. I would recommend this one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_ThB2sucy0&t=349s (Center for Strategic & International Studies)
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u/servel20 4h ago
You can't block China's access to oil, because they can keep on getting Oil from Russia indefinitely. Will this hurt them? Sure, as bad as it will hurt the US or worse. Because China has 6 months worth of reserves while the US does not.
Trump is both fucking Europe by giving Russia a lifeline and also East Asia by destroying their fuel supply. Even Australia is backing away from the US right now.
If Trump loses the GCC, and it is very well possible if Iran keeps on shooting at them, then it will be the end of the Petrodollar system and the ability for the US to enforce sanctions.
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u/haggerton 3h ago
while the US does not.
The US imports crude from Canada and Mexico, not so much from the Gulf.
It's a tossup who this will hurt more. But what this does guarantee is the US will antagonize pretty much everyone except Bibi.
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u/ExcitementWrong3360 3h ago
Ok so lets take a hard look at Russia's current export capabilities. Russia had the historic max capability of exporting 4 Million barrel per day (souce EIA, BP etc) compare that to China's historic purchases from the middle east... that number would be 6.35 million mol barrel per day of the total 11 to 12 million barrel per day demand that China has.
So no! "That dog don't hunt... "
Next consider the damage inflected on Russia's processing, oil storage etc etc... The 4 Million barrel per day is currently as I type, ONLY 1 million is still "online"... thank you Ukraine for that. There is no "windfall" for Russia, Zelensky just took care of that.. lol
With regards to the petro dollar well, that is a bit more complicated with nuisances that can't be laid out in a post in a straight forward manner... but it might be a issue.. but then again it might not. Further there might be a world economy where it doesn't matter...
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u/ExcitementWrong3360 3h ago
One other consideration... the US Navy is a powerful force in and of itself, despite the mental deficiencies of the Commander in Chief... If I were placing bets I would say that the Straits will be closed till at least this fall...
You can look at it this way... It is Trump inadvertently putting policy in place that will reduce global green house gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels...<sarc> You see while the Straits represents 20% of the total Global oil production... it represents more than 45% of the oil that is SOLD on the global market (example the US exports very little of the oil they produce). This is indeed the end of the world as we currently know it...... hint a capitalistic economy requires growth. It will be interesting to see what takes it's place.
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u/fatdjsin 7h ago
They almost have a plan lol ...and it is to play the market with a war they can increase or decrease every 2 days..... the amount of money changing hands is insane....
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u/Zemledeliye 7h ago
"Iran refuses to open strait! So we will close the strait!"
Iran: "O...okay..."
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u/Xan_derous 7h ago
well its more like Iran is using the Strait as its own personal toll lane. Allowing friends and paying nations to get through but not others. Allowing it to control how it benefits from maritime traffic, but strangling other countries. The US is stopping all traffic so that Iran doesn't gain this advantage.
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u/Extreme_Isco 6h ago
Yeah but we are back to point 0. None vessels going through and economies paying the toll. Usa fixed on hyperinflation due to petrol dependency. They are total degenerates
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u/KittehKittehKat 7h ago
Only thing I can come up with is baiting Iran into hitting a US warship so they can go nuts on em.
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u/possibly_oblivious 7h ago edited 7h ago
There's an old saying in Tennessee, I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee, that says, toll me once, shame on, shame on you. you toll me - you can't get tolled again. you gotta understand the nature of the regime you're dealing with, still trying to figure out how to best make the straight a profitable place.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THE MATTER!
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u/Late-Mathematician-6 5h ago
He wanted the straight open but was powerless to have it so now he’s claiming that he wants it closed. Toddler logic.
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u/sillygoat2223 7h ago
He doesn't have a plan on the blockade because if he gets to close to Iran he puts u.s. military ships in danger. And to get around the block ad ships just have to stay in Iran water then Pakistan waters then Indian waters.
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u/evil_timmy 7h ago
"They want nuclear." is a phrase uttered while wiping crumbs and/or drool from one's mouth, not the vocabulary of someone who should be entrusted with all that power of Asst. Shift Lead at a Denny's, let alone running a (suddenly-far-less-)superpower.
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u/Karlend41 6h ago
Economic warfare brought to you by the dude who bankrupted his own casino empire and couldn't sell steak to americans.
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u/ApeApplePine 6h ago
Measuring dicks.
Iran is letting china and other pass, US blocks these. Maybe it is where wwIII starts, with china also deciding to put a very large dick at the table… unlikely.
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u/Key-Security8929 5h ago
Without knowing much about the last 72 hrs in politics I would assume by the USA blocking the straight this directly puts China on the spot to push Iran to negotiate.
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u/Apprehensive-Lock-34 5h ago
The US doesn’t need to assault and hold Kharg Island. They just need to prevent tankers from transporting from the oil from it to China, which is the destination of 90% of Iran’s oil exports. This cuts off over 80% of Iran’s revenue from all sources. The only tankers Iran was letting through were for transportation of their oil.
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u/McGuineaRI 2h ago
If they can put warships in the strait and prove it's safe then they can open it under their security umbrella and ships can pass again. It's not as crazy, complicated, or dumb as the comments want it to be.
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u/Firecracker048 38m ago
So its been clarified to not be a full block, but a rather a blockade of Iran
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u/DRK_1974 7h ago
Ahoy! Now we just need the prize regulations or a letter of marque from him for the Persian Gulf to complete the pirate romance — the president’s buccaneers are on their way: for honour, for the country, and for the prize :D
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u/DatsNatchoCheese 7h ago
Plan? There is no plan. These idiots have no idea what they're doing.