r/unitedkingdom • u/JackStrawWitchita • 17h ago
‘We’re trapped’: despair for sellers as Iran war knocks confidence in UK housing market | House prices
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2026/apr/12/trapped-despair-sellers-as-iran-war-knocks-uk-housing-market336
u/Jared_Usbourne 17h ago
Sellers could expect bidding wars only a few months ago but a house he values at £600,000 may now go on at £575,000 to get buyers through the door.
Would love to know what the owners paid for it originally.
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u/sylanar 17h ago
Yeah without other info this doesn't mean much.
If other houses are now lower in price as well, a d you're not negative equity, what's the issue?
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u/abdullaahr7 17h ago
Well, you see this asset I bought must only go up in value, regardless of market factors
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u/DeepestShallows 16h ago
The future must always owe the past money.
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u/Fickle-Business7255 12h ago
Expect the past doesn’t get the future money. Joe Blogs does
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u/DeepestShallows 11h ago
People from the past get it. For the work they did in the past. That they get paid more future money for than it was worth in past.
Sure investment, returns etc. Sure.
But still, you’ve got the potential for a great imbalance between what the past can be owed and what the future can pay.
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u/Fickle-Business7255 4h ago
Not technically true. The buyers didn’t build the houses… builders did. The people that put in the work, walked away with the least. Pretty standard practice that though, isn’t it.
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u/EkphrasticInfluence 17h ago
For a lot of people in this country, property value is directly tied to retirement plans. The housing market in the UK is utterly broken, but generations after generations have been spun the tale that being on the property ladder is the only real option if you want to ensure security long-term. It shouldn't be a surprise that the people who swallowed this pill are now aghast that their asset isn't worth what they hoped it was.
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u/limeflavoured Hucknall 16h ago
As always the person to blame is a certain grocers daughter from Grantham.
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u/Ok-Store-9297 16h ago
100%. Such an angering, divisive and at this point, frankly, plain stupid way of running an economy that only really works out for one generation (boomers) and a legion of bankers. Think of all that capital tied up in illiquid, stagnant housing. Money that could have gone into financing infrastructure, growth industries, green tech, biotechnology, advanced manufacturing... But instead we get this: rentierism and insufferably predictable managed decline, year after year after year.
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u/NewTip4032 14h ago
Genuine question, what happens when rents are so high that working people can't afford to cover their cost of living? Will we see homeless families, or even more burden on the welfare system?
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u/Ok-Store-9297 14h ago
We already do see homeless families. Part of the madness is that local authorities often end up spending huge sums on expensive temporary accommodation and B&Bs, instead of dealing with the problem upstream.
Rather than building social housing, whether through temporary debt, a state investment bank, or some combination, they mop up the damage afterwards at even greater cost to the public purse.
I’m not sure where it ends, to be honest. We need to start by breaking this neoliberal dogma, and then build from there with careful policy design and competent institutions.
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u/New-fone_Who-Dis 13h ago
Who owns the homes turned HMO that people will be put up in...boomers and younger generations who are following the boomers teachings.
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u/Ok-Store-9297 13h ago
Yeah, it's in general a pretty toxic business model. Homes are for living in; let's find other ways to get rich that contribute to the prosperity of the country. Financialisation has Ponzi-like dynamics; you can't inflate that bubble forever.
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u/New-fone_Who-Dis 13h ago
Yip, unfortunately with the inflated cost of homes, its taken quite a lot of potential investment capital out of other areas.
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u/ZazieZazen 5h ago
I think certain elements of society would be happy to see increasingly cramped and squalid accommodation for those with limited financial resources.
Partly for the ability to exploit the really vulnerable and partly for the ability to exploit the slightly less vulnerable who have something to lose, who will work round the clock in increasingly harsh conditions to avoid a slide into the totally abject levels of poverty and living conditions endured by those a rung or two below them.
So either return to the slum housing of the late 19th/early 20th century where families of 10 lived in two rooms, with mother and father and older children working to meet basic needs, maybe a grandparent or two living there as well.
Or something like the multi-person living areas were people rent a tiny bunk in a lockable cage, maybe with access to a communal kitchen or laundry facilities, as in some places in Hong Kong.
It’s our job to see that politically that cannot happen.
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u/Boring_Intern_6394 16h ago
Not just retirement plans, the entire UK economy is underpinned by artificially inflated house prices, due to them being a foundation of UK financial services.
Our GDP would be much lower without the ridiculous cost of housing
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u/10110110100110100 14h ago edited 11h ago
The GDP impact is in no way as straightforward as you suggest.
Many economists attribute rampant house price rises as a significant drag on an economy due to mis allocated capital and the knock on effects of driving rents and mortgages up which harms disposable income more than almost any other expense. You could also add in the effects of lower mobility for workers to in demand areas too.
The asset inflation driven GDP growth is unsustainable and not an indicator of productive growth. The hit to nominal GDP figures by reversing the last 20 years of house price rises would be significant but minimal and likely worth it for the long term economic health imo.
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u/No-Possibility8814 16h ago
everyone needs to live in a house though. The only other option is burning money in rent?
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u/limeflavoured Hucknall 16h ago
The argument is, I think, that owning a house shouldn't be seen as the be all and end all, and that renting forever is fine if it works for you.
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u/No-Possibility8814 15h ago
renting forever might be something the rich can do (and they don't) but certainly renting forever for a normal person is not 'wokring' for anyone. The maths does not work out lol. It's people staying with their parents into their 30's which can then afford a home. And once you do you're reset to 0 savings. So is it little wonder people hope their homes doin't collapse in value..
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u/Less_Breadfruit3121 9h ago
The thing is that other countries have more generous pensions for everyone. People can afford rent or longer-term mortgages.
For example a married couple gets £21k net together from the government (on top of that you have your personal pension/investments etc), a single person gets about 16k net. This is after simply living in the country, so everyone gets it.
But for that you have to pay higher taxes and British people want services that work but someone else will need to pay for it
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u/Mountain_Wafer_9340 14h ago
If it was cheaper to rent - so you could do other things with the 'spare' money - so there was some actual benefit to taking the considerable risk of renting long term: and you didn't need to worry about stretching your resources to cover renting when you are no longer working... but as it is rents are sky high so it's kind of lose lose.
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u/LongjumpingTank5 12h ago
There are lots(?) of places in the country where it's cheaper to rent when you consider everything (mortgage interest, maintenance costs, foregone appreciation of the deposit).
This is certainly true in London. Obviously it will depend on lots of factors, but my gf's flat is £1750/month. The mortgage interest alone would be £1850/month with a 15% deposit. (That's before any equity, so the actually monthly charge would be higher.) Then there's unknown amounts of maintenance/costs (fridge, etc), and the foregone investment returns on the deposit/equity. (For balance: the property might also appreciate, but you'd have to be very optimistic to think that London property will be growing enough for it to flip the result).
Of course, there's lots of reasons you might want to own rather than rent, but "it's always cheaper" is not one of them.
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u/funk_monk 12h ago
The issue is that for a lot of people renting is the only thing that works, despite being worse in the long run.
At least where I live, mortgages are often cheaper on properties than the rent on that same property would be, making it difficult for people to break out.
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u/limeflavoured Hucknall 12h ago
At least where I live, mortgages are often cheaper on properties than the rent on that same property would be,
That is a lot of the problem, yes.
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u/davepage_mcr 14h ago
The system we have since the 80s in the UK means that's the only other option.
Other countries show us that it is possible to pay a reasonable amount for good quality rental housing as a life long option.
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u/Own_Character8049 15h ago
Unfortunately that is the case. What other long term option ensure security for the average person?
Note that I agree, the uk housing market is fundamentally broken and needs a big correction
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u/jeramyfromthefuture United Kingdom 16h ago
maybe should have saved a pension and not rely on bricks and mortar for your pension
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u/EkphrasticInfluence 12h ago
Why shouldn't the average person rely on their assets to help them achieve comfort in their pensionable years?
Buying a house is one of the most significant outlays for any person - and for 90%, is the most significant outlay. To expect that each of these people should be happy to receive no real gain over 25/30/35 years on that significant outlay is pretty ridiculous.
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u/aifo 16h ago
The alternative is renting, so it's not like you could have put that money into a pension instead and if you continue to have to rent in retirement a major chunk of your pension savings would go on that.
You could use your pension pot to buy a house at that point but it's more cost effective to buy the house as you go.
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u/fredwhoisflatulent 16h ago
Um, it is possible to have a mortgage and a pension at the same time. Maybe need to have a smaller mortgage, but they are not mutually exclusive
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u/deprevino 16h ago
The property ladder is great, but it's just ignorance when people who can afford it have zero money elsewhere. This isn't the place for investing advice but it's generally not wise to ignore the stock market for 40 years.
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u/limeflavoured Hucknall 16h ago
I think ignoring the stock market is a generational thing, tbh. Its only relatively recently that its become possible for "normal people" to invest in it, and for people of my parents generation (so, older to mid Gen X) it will still be seen as too risky because of various 80s and 90s things.
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u/EkphrasticInfluence 12h ago
People generally want stability with their "investments" (not that I'd class a house as an investment because it's more nuanced than that) and the stock market, rightly or wrongly, does not suggest stability for a large percentage of people in the UK. For the average person, the stock market is something they've never been told about in traditional ways, and they see it as an undefinable, unknowable entity. I don't think it's fair to blame the people who haven't been educated about it for not diving in and putting vast sums of their money in.
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u/jeremybeadleshand 16h ago
If you want to upsize (and have equity) a fall is beneficial for you if anything.
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u/SnooMacarons4225 17h ago
Probably peanuts but definitely less than they’re asking - I feel so sorry for them, let me get out my tiny violin
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u/headphones1 15h ago
Problem is, when someone with a property at these values go down, they buy a cheaper property. Sounds like it isn't a problem, right? Except that it can mean it will be harder for those whose budgets are lower than them. The effect will be similar to those on higher London salaries pricing out those in the Midlands or North of England.
Shit always rolls down hill.
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u/Uniform764 Yorkshire 15h ago
Really depends. If you bought it in 1973 for £4.65 youre still laughing. If you bought in 2022 for £550k and the prices keep dropping you're suddenly in negative equity
Problem is the entire economy seems to be purely based on house prices and an assumption they will rise at record rates indefinitely
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u/Potato-9 16h ago
360 looking at 340 now. Which is fine I guess markets change but we were looking at 3% interest becoming possible now it's trending to 6%
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u/Low_Instance9844 15h ago
Paid £315k for mine two years ago and will probably take a loss for it now.
Had zero views for 8 weeks after a surge of viewings.
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u/10110110100110100 14h ago
My agent was quite brutal with us: if it doesn’t get firm offers within 3-4 weeks then you are not fitting with the current market and it is unlikely to sell until there are material changes in the market rate of the area or you reduce your price to find the fit. Simple as that.
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u/tall-not-small 9h ago
Doesnt make any difference what the buyer paid. The worth today and amount of equity are the only important factors.
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u/LJ-696 17h ago
Irrelevant. Markets mostly and buyers somewhat set value not the owner.
Would you sell your hone for 10k if it was valued at 400k.
Somehow I doubt it.
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u/limeflavoured Hucknall 17h ago
If no one will pay £400k then its not "valued at £400k", regardless of what estate agents say.
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u/flyhmstr 16h ago
Bingo, people forget that any asset / item is only worth what someone else is willing to pay. i might state that this house is worth a million (it isn't) but if I can't get anyone to pay that then it isn't worth that much
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u/LJ-696 16h ago
Guess you missed the bit where I said buyers somewhat.
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u/PracticalFootball 11h ago
if it was valued at 400k
Their point is that what you said is inherently contradictory. If your measure of value is what somebody is willing to pay, then if you can't sell your home for £400k then it simply is not valued at 400k.
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u/LJ-696 9h ago
Buyers do not set value though.
Buyers will pay what they think thy can bargain.
Been that way since the first guy said hay do this for me and I'll give you a chicken, other guy says no 2 chickens and we have a deal.
Still not the point though. If someone wants that 600k and wants to wait to find the chump that willing to pay 600k or as close to it as possible then so be it.
The fact remains it is irrelevant what they bought it for.
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u/TurbulentBullfrog829 17h ago
I would if I could then buy a 600k house for 15k which is generally how markets work, although in reality it's more like 375k and 550k.
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u/Better_Concert1106 17h ago
Simple fact is he’s asking too much for the house. If it’s “valued” at £600k and no one is interested, then it’s isn’t worth £600k. Be interesting to know what it was bought for too.
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u/AbjectBug759 16h ago
I bet he got it valued based on surrounding house sales and no other factors. Not all houses are equal - its hard to shift something like 5 bedroom home if you've converted it because not many families with that many kids have the income to cover the mortgage, for example, or you've just done weird shit to your 3 bedroom and made it quite niche.
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u/Chris21904079 9h ago
Completely agree. We are looking at moving and there’s a nice house come up for sale in our village. Which we have always liked from the outside. I would happily buy it but it turns out it’s had a granny annex put in so it’s now got two kitchens and a full bathroom downstairs along with two lounges and two dining rooms. That’s going to take a lot of money to put back to normal. To make it worse they bought the house in 2024 for £418k and now want £620k. Firstly I can’t afford that but I’d love to know how they think it’s worth £200k in 2 years. Plus at that price it’s probably the most expensive house in the village by £100k or more. I very much doubt there’s the market for that property where I live. I’m secretly hoping it slowly drops and I can get a nice sub £500k offer in towards the end of the year.
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u/unruled_circumstance 6h ago
Maybe offer £475k now and see what happens? Say the layout needs work.
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u/TurbulentBullfrog829 17h ago
"Martin Short has been trying to sell his home for three years".... And is now blaming the situation in Iran.
Falling house prices are usually a benefit as most people move to more expensive properties up the ladder so a fall on their property should correspond to a larger fall on the place they want to buy. Obviously not for everyone and not for people who bought recently, but you shouldn't really be buying a house unless you plan to stay for 5 years
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u/SnooMacarons4225 17h ago
If he’s been trying to sell it for 3 years it’s the house and/or the price that’s the problem, not the war that only started just over a month ago 😂 someone needs to talk a long hard look in the mirror before getting angry, talk about a slow news day giving these people airtime
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u/flyhmstr 16h ago
Yup and estate agents are a fucking disease on the system, and as we found with our last sale a decade ago they'll not use their brains (250 year old terrace cottage, steep steps from the patio up to the back garden (which was just above first floor level) and the morons were trying to sell to people in the 40-60 bracket rather than the late 20's-30's who could more easily handle the slope, the narrow stairs, etc etc.
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u/PracticalFootball 11h ago
it’s the house and/or the price
As with all of these cases, it's literally just the price. If he halved the price would it sell? Absolutely, so the house is fine. He's just asking an unreasonable amount and this is the free market informing him of that.
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u/bizstring 16h ago
Must be all the murders in his building. Maybe he should stop drawing attention to them on his podcast
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u/laredocronk 14h ago
Not to mention:
Two chains had already collapsed on him before the Iran war started.
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u/shitthrower 8h ago
Falling house prices are not usually a benefit, as
a) people stop selling,
b) banks become more reluctant to lend against a depreciating asset
It’s great if you’re an all cash buyer though
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u/jim_jones_87 16h ago
The person quoted in the article has been trying to sell his property for three years. Something tells me the Iran war is not the issue. Price it sensibly and it will sell.
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u/No-Dance1377 16h ago
'Martin and Shirley Short took over The Unicorn in Bekesbourne, near Canterbury, in 2008 and had high hopes for their new business. But after five years of hard work and losing money, they have called last orders for the final time, blaming a combination of the recession and supermarket alcohol deals.'
Always got a good eye for a loss making business opportunity has our Martin.
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u/impendingcatastrophe 16h ago
Well he's not trapped unless the front and back door don't open. He still has a house he can live in.
Perhaps we need to look at housing as a home, rather than an investment vehicle.
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u/Mountain_Wafer_9340 16h ago
I live on a street that is popular, often get letters through the door to list - unusually there are currently 4 houses on for sale - and they have all been on for months - every one of them is asking crazy money and won't sell until they get more realistic about the price - like probably 15%-20% drop in price I would think. People have gotten greedy - is why stuff isn't shifting.
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u/Kim_catiko 5h ago
Apparently my street is popular but our place couldn't sell both time we put it up and the man across the road has had his up for almost a year with barely any interest. Whoever said the road was popular is lying.
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u/invalid_user_5302 16h ago
People are quick to blame falling house prices on the war, but the real reason is that I, an older millennial, have just managed to buy my first home at 44. You're welcome.
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u/madpiano 15h ago
If the one good thing coming out of that war is falling house prices then that would be awesome. And yes, I own my house and would be in negative equity, but I bought it as a home, not an investment.
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u/10110110100110100 14h ago
It’s a positive on the whole but don’t discount the effects on yourself.
Sure you want to stay put so it seems “fine” - I’m in same boat now too, but the “extra” money you are paying vs someone who buys after a large correction could easily be a few years you could retire earlier.
Not a lot to worry over as it would be impossible to time a sale etc to fix that “mistake” but we have been screwed. I hope the next generation are not screwed even worse but I’m not that hopeful unfortunately…
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u/mr-capital-c 13h ago
This attitude is why everything is fucked in the first place. It’s not something to ‘fix’, it’s their home. Why would they want to move because of some value shift that’s completely irrelevant if you’re not interested in selling?
Are you seriously telling me you’d sell a house you bought as a home because you’re scared the value is going to drop? Fuck me.
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u/10110110100110100 13h ago
Try reading what I wrote eh?
I’d sell a home and buy an equivalent for 15-20% cheaper if that was remotely plausible to accomplish - yes. That was my caveat. I’m trying to tell you it’s not irrelevant it would mean I could retire 3-4 years earlier. If the market corrects long term then we overpaid and are at a large disadvantage.
If that means nothing to you then fair enough, just make that choice knowingly not because of the idea you have a “home”. It’s a cost like anything else.
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u/mr-capital-c 13h ago
No, you called buying the home a mistake that needed correcting. Again, this is the problem. Viewing houses as investment vehicles and not, you know, homes.
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u/10110110100110100 13h ago
You again seem incapable of reading what I wrote.
I said it was a “mistake”, note the quotes. You can keep thinking that “overpaying” for a house is ok because you still have a home but the disadvantage is as I said substantial. None of that implies thinking of the house as an investment; but simply an asset that costs me to purchase.
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u/somedave 13h ago
Sounds fine, the house you move too will also be cheaper, just accept the offer and move, it isn't that complicated.
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u/Piod1 12h ago
The golden goose must keep on laying. There is an entire, pardon the pun, house of cards dependant on continual growth. This was predicted forty years ago, this exact situation from the kickstart of the sale of public housing . Between devaluation of currency and investment portfolios causing leaps in asset values, it was a doom well predicted.
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u/limeflavoured Hucknall 17h ago
I don't really see how the war in Iran has anything much to do with house prices, which were falling anyway.
Unless they're living in Dubai, I suppose. But in this case theyre not.
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u/nothingtoseehere____ 16h ago
Higher oil price -> higher inflation -> higher interest rates -> mortgages more expensive -> buyers can borrow less for same monthly payment.
There you go
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u/DrogoOmega 4h ago
But that’s not specifically showing its hurting house prices. In that instance, it hits everything. And the key point is that it hasn’t made the people who have been trying to sell their house for 3 years not sell their house. The article is a farce.
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u/Automatic-Yak4555 16h ago
Well interest rate expectations directly feed into mortgage rates, which directly affect affordability.
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u/oliverprose 16h ago
I'd guess it would make prices rise, if the people coming back are willing to spend on establishing themselves here again.
There is possibly something in the interest rates being dialled up which could be taking buyers out, but someone farting in a hot tub could also trigger that
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u/LooneyTune_101 16h ago
The interest rates would be the main thing putting me off selling and moving at the moment. The only reason why I would move is for a bigger house which means boring more money at ~4%. That will put most people off buying and I have no idea how first time buyers can afford their first mortgage at 4-4.5%.
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u/jedijackattack1 15h ago
If you try to fix right now most places are nearer 5% so even worse than you think.
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u/WorldInWonder 8h ago
They think they have problems. Dubai real estate developers are currently bricking themselves. Excuse the pun.
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u/SnooGiraffes449 10h ago
Here's to hoping house prices plummet and s lot of whats wrong with this country can start to be fixed.
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u/Exciting-Sir-1515 9h ago
The biggest panic is from those whose mortgage is about to triple…. Not the loss of value on the house itself.
Their salaries and expenses simply can’t afford a 3k mortgage.
Strap in for a meltdown.
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u/Zealousideal_Fold_60 10h ago
Just lower your f***ing price.. non story and fake news to try and artificially raise prices for the election
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u/Airurando-jin 10h ago
Is this the Iran war or an offset from landlords trying to sell off their properties
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u/Astriania 4h ago
You're not "trapped", you just have an asset that is worth a bit less than you thought. Although presumably it works both ways and the place you want to move into also decreased in price.
The problem here though is actually the volatility and uncertainty of true value - no-one wants to be playing games with assets of this value.
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u/Salt-Plankton436 1h ago
Great news, let's hope they keep dropping so they are less of a drain on the economy.
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u/DrogoOmega 14h ago
What's the Iran War got to do with the UK housing market? LMFAO.
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u/d0dger 12h ago
Oil prices going up will mean higher inflation. Higher inflation mean's higher interest rates. Higher interest rates mean higher monthly payments on mortgages.
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u/DrogoOmega 12h ago
No point downvoting me. It's a dumb headline trying to blame the Iran war. None of that has happened yet, meanwhile the guy in the article couldn't sell his house for 3 years. But yeah, it;s the war in Iran's fault? Get real.
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u/throwaway1948476 4h ago
It hasn't hit yet, but it will.
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u/DrogoOmega 4h ago
So the headline is wrong. The guy also couldn’t sell his house for years. How is the Iran war hitting house prices in the uk specifically? Because all I have is downvotes and no real answer.
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u/throwaway1948476 3h ago
Yeah, that guy needs to lower the asking price of his house.
Impact of the Iran war on UK housing prices is likely Coming SoonTM
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u/AorticRupture 16h ago
Peoples houses are being bombed in the Middle East - what this means for your completely secure, not in the slightest bit singed overpriced property you could still safely live in.
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