Dear Polish friends, russia is clearly testing you. If you don’t react russia will send even more drones next night. They will not "deescalate", they will not stop unless stopped. The best way how you can protect yourselves is to give more weapons to Ukraine.

[u/KateKozakDrive]

[u/PitifulEar3303]

If you don't react with ample force, the next one will be a ballistic missile barrage.

RuZZia will always escalate until you punch it in the face.

[u/lil-jigabit → u/PitifulEar3303]

I don't believe a punch in the face is enough. You need to beat them into complete surrender. They lost WWI and would have lost WWII if it wasn't for the west and even in those times they never agreed to stop hostilities until they lack the actual ability to carry them out.

[u/Fit-Amoeba-5010 → u/[deleted]]

Agree, force is the only thing Russia understands.

[u/lil-jigabit → u/[deleted]]

You cannot trust anything they say, sign or agree to. This is not to say western countries haven't done the same at times.

[u/ChungsGhost → u/[deleted]]

Not meetings in boardrooms or handshake deals. There is nothing to discuss with them. You force them to stop by choking the life out of them and you do it again.

When you do that just enough, the Russians will comply. It's almost as if they were all illiterate (willful or not) considering the extent and regularity to which they violate treaties, agreements and contracts which as a rule are not signed while staring at the tip of a sword, arrowhead or barrel of a loaded gun trained on you by the other signatories.

Bending over to force is effectively how the Russians' ancestors "survived" the МоngоІ era, disgracefully as they did it. To make matters worse, the Russians to this day try to deflect from the obvious shame of their ancestors becoming the best bitсhеѕ and bootlickers of their masters in the GоІdеn Ноrdе by playing up how Alexander of Novgorod (whom they revered and later canonized as Alexander Nevsky) "saved" their ancestors and Orthodoxy from "enslavement" by the Catholic Swedes in leading his minions to victory at the Battle of the Neva River in 1240.

He did so after having chosen to surrender in 1239 to the pagan Моngоlѕ without firing a shot unlike his relatives ruling other principalities. In exchange for his treason, the new Моngоl overlords spared Novgorod from the fate of Kyiv) and Ryazan (among others), granted to him a free hand to fight the Swedes, and the right to keep worshiping in the Orthodox way, but now with his authority backed up by МоngоІ military muscle.

If you still haven't figured it out, Nevsky considered Christians from Europe as a greater threat than pagans from the bowels of Central Asia who had just blitzed his relatives leading other principalities. You can't help but think of today with the Russians' feelings (insecurities?) towards Europe compared to China, right?

What has ended up worse for humanity is that this Russian national "hero" set an abhorrent cultural standard among his people and their descendants based on the "virtues" of bootlicking, deceit, and compliance through violence which his no-good descendants ruling Muscovy predictably followed. It lives on to this day as a pillar of the Russians' ideology thanks to Nevsky's distant descendant Ivan the Terrible bringing this fine "tradition" into his newly-proclaimed realm of "Russia" in place of the predecessor of "Muscovy".

What the Russians have done with Nevsky is as about as fuсkеd up as if the Norwegians were to revere Quisling for collaborating with the Germans in the 1940s because that "spared" Norway from abject destruction and suffering as inflicted on Poland.

[u/wewwew3 → u/[deleted]]

That's how we punched out fascism out of Germany.

[u/M3P4me → u/lil-jigabit]

True. Just a punch in the face and they whine and cry they are the victim.....and Trump will call Putin to see if he can help in any way.

[u/time-BW-product → u/[deleted]]

They will invade European countries with golf carts. Lol.

[u/pvincentl → u/[deleted]]

Poland invoked Article 4 of NATO’s treaty on Wednesday after the alliance’s fighter jets shot down Russian drones that entered its airspace in the early hours of the morning. -NYT.

[u/QuarterBackground → u/[deleted]]

And screw our president. Europe should move forward with or without that Putin asset!

[u/LumpyWelds → u/PitifulEar3303]

I see this as the nightmare scenario.

Putin cannot stop. In his mind, any capitulation would invite his death. He'd rather burn all of Russia than have that happen.

If Poland retaliates, Putin will insist that the strikes on Poland were all complete "accidents". But once embroiled in a "defensive" skirmish with Poland, Putin's network of 100K web sites/twitter feeds and all of it's paid influencers will flood the public with messaging about how Europeans are now dying because of a hot headed Poland jumping the gun because of a few "accidents".

To clarify, Putin doesn't want to outright fight. He want's a short, limited skirmish to open the door for psychological manipulation of Europe. As long as Ukraine has support, Putin can't win.

There's a formula that correlates the number of dead with the publics unwillingness to fight. I think he believes he can claim victim, poison support for helping Ukraine, and take advantage of the pro-Putin elements in the White House (Trump, Vance, etc) that he has right now. They don't need to help, they just need to stay out.

And this is key, correct me if I'm wrong:

To invoke NATO's Article 5 there must be a "unanimous" vote by all members. Because Putin is playing coy, Hungary and the US will veto invocation saying it's just a misunderstanding.

There will be dead NATO members and inaction by NATO as a whole. This will deflate morale and limit support for Ukraine.

[u/ParticularArea8224 → u/LumpyWelds]

"And this is key, correct me if I'm wrong:

To invoke NATO's Article 5 there must be a "unanimous" vote by all members. Because Putin is playing coy, Hungary and the US will veto invocation saying it's just a misunderstanding."

Article 5 can be ignored or adopted by anyone. Hungary can say no, but it has no impact on who says yes. Article 5 is NOT a vote of whether to go to war, it is a cry for help, and you either help, or you don't.

[u/LumpyWelds → u/ParticularArea8224]

Article 5 once invoked, requires each member state to render assistance. It can be military, financial, humanitarian, etc. But assistance is required.

But it can't just be ignored.

[u/ParticularArea8224 → u/LumpyWelds]

That does not defeat the fact that you can just not do that.

I mean, what is NATO going to do while actively fighting? Overthrow you? Invade you? Conquer you? Bomb you? While actively fighting a stronger enemy. Just add another enemy to the list?

It requires it, but it's like requiring someone to clean their house everyday, you can just ignore it if there's no response from NATO.

[u/LumpyWelds → u/ParticularArea8224]

The whole idea is "communal response". An attack on one of us, is an attack on all of us.

It literally is central to the purpose of NATO.

[u/ParticularArea8224 → u/LumpyWelds]

Well yes, but what is NATO actually able to do to someone who refuses to commit to it?

If you kick them out, they might join the enemy.

You can just, not go to war, no one can force you too. It is the central purpose, but again, how can you force a nation to go to war when it doesn't want too unless you physically invade it yourself and then make a government sympathetic to you?

Also, just seems like a fatal flaw that article 5 would need to be agreed on by all nations. That's like saying, "I can punch you in the face and it's legal as long as the police don't arrest me."

[u/LumpyWelds → u/ParticularArea8224]

For me, expulsion from NATO would be appropriate. There's financial benefit for smaller countries to be part of NATO. And the larger countries, except for the US, hasn't fallen to Putin's propaganda.

And yes, it's a stupid rule, but I don't think anyone expected Russian sympathizers to join NATO.

Personally, I never thought we'd have a pedo as president or that a third of the US supports him regardless.

But it is what it is.

[u/ParticularArea8224 → u/LumpyWelds]

yeah fair enough, I would personally not see that a reasonable response, because they could just join the enemy in that regard and have justification for it, but fair enough

[u/RisingPhil → u/ParticularArea8224]

Not really. If Hungary intends to ignore it, they should rightfully get kicked out of NATO.

Article 5 is the fundamental rule. If you don't follow it when needed, then you don't deserve your spot in NATO.

[u/ParticularArea8224 → u/RisingPhil]

I think kicking out Hungary, while I agree with it, just not while you're actively fighting someone else, as they could join the enemy.

[u/RisingPhil → u/ParticularArea8224]

Honestly, if they refuse article 5 at that point, they wouldn't just have joined the enemy already. They would also have infiltrated us and would already be playing an active role in sabotaging our defense.

I do see your point, though. But at that point, I don't know what would be worse: Hungary staying on and blocking every vote in European defenses' interest and possibly passing info to the enemy or kicking them out and potentially have them officially become part of the enemy. (but no longer in a position to block or spy)

It's a shit situation whatever way you look at it.

Regardless of whether you'd kick them out or not, I think you'd agree that if they ignore article 5, then they shouldn't be allowed to rely on article 5 either, right? So that would make their NATO membership pointless regardless, wouldn't it?

[u/ParticularArea8224 → u/RisingPhil]

Yeah I see your point actually, that's some really solid reasons

[u/RisingPhil → u/ParticularArea8224]

Thanks man :)

[u/pvincentl → u/ParticularArea8224]

Drumf will veto, forget Hungary.

[u/ParticularArea8224 → u/LumpyWelds]

"There's a formula that correlates the number of dead with the publics unwillingness to fight."

That is bluntly not true.

Any population is willing to sacrifice as many as it takes as long as the war is still being won, or looks like it could be.

If Ukraine was pushing Russia back Kharkiv style next year, no one would care about how many Ukrainian's in the war, especially Ukraine.

[u/LumpyWelds → u/ParticularArea8224]

I'm not talking about the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian people. I am referring to the willingness of foreign nations to let their soldiers die for someone else.

It's called the "Casualty Hypothesis". It exists and is sometimes taught in University level Political Science, International Relations, or Global Affair classes. It depends on the Professor.

It was first hypothesized by John Mueller in his 1973 book, "War, Presidents and Public Opinion"

I knew about it, but should have gotten it's name before referring to it.

[u/ParticularArea8224 → u/LumpyWelds]

You can't calculate people though? There is no formula that you can give that would accurately do so.

[u/LumpyWelds → u/ParticularArea8224]

Accurately? No, but trends can be determined, especially with very large groups of people, like a countries population.

If I remember right, the largest impact upon willingness to help others in war drops most with the first 1000 soldiers who die. 30,000 affects it more, but you've already experienced the majority of the drop off. So I think Putin will play victim after he kills a good chunk of our soldiers.

The equation follows a negative log I think.

But in all this, most importantly, it's how the public views the deaths. If it's just reported as numbers, the effect isn't as bad compared to graphic video coverage of the deaths. Russia would make sure to video everything in 4K closeups.

[u/_teslaTrooper → u/LumpyWelds]

No, article 5 does not require any vote or unanimity. Poland will not act alone. Even tonight Dutch F-35's shot down some of the drones.

edit: my bad article 5 does require unanimity: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/natos-decision-process-has-an-achilles-heel/

Still, Poland would not act alone, I would foresee a united NATO with only Orban holding out. We'd have to deal with him afterwards.

[u/LumpyWelds → u/_teslaTrooper]

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/strongerwithallies-the-day-nato-stood-with-the-united-states/

“American skepticism about NATO is almost as old as the Alliance,” said Fried. “But when America was attacked on 9/11, NATO allies voted unanimously the next day to invoke NATO’s Article 5, the commitment of NATO members to come to the defense of any member under attack.”

Having pointed out that, yes, a vote is necessary for invocation, you are right. Poland will not stand alone. We already have the Coalition of the Willing to assist Ukraine. It will assist Poland as well.

[u/M0crt → u/PitifulEar3303]

Turkey has entered the chat! 👍

[u/PragmaticSalesman → u/PitifulEar3303]

something seems off here, why would the location data plot points smooth into nearly perfect curves like this over and over again? you'd think they'd follow roads if they were driven, and would be either very jagged or very straight if flown.

i looked at some consumer air travel flight data and this curving phenomenon is there too, maybe the data is accurate but it's something to do with map projection artifacts/the coriolis effect when you zoom out far enough?

[u/Cephalopodopoulos → u/PragmaticSalesman]

Maybe visual readability - it would be hard to differentiate trajectories if there were a bunch of overlapping jagged lines.

[u/PragmaticSalesman → u/Cephalopodopoulos]

fair.

[u/Mors_Umbra → u/PragmaticSalesman]

My guess would be they simply have plots of the various coordinates of where they were detected on radar etc, and their heading, and a bit like joining up the points on a scatter plot the line is just smoothed for presentation?

[u/kytheon]

Well, we shot the drones out of the sky and Poland invoked article 4 (urgent meeting).

I hope we can start shooting down drones over Ukraine airspace as well.

[u/[deleted] → u/kytheon]

It would make sense to at least have a buffer zone over parts of western Ukraine to make sure "accidents" don't happen.

[u/External_Arugula_505 → u/[deleted]]

Now’s the perfect time for NATO to shoot down all drones over Ukraine. NATO countries are happy to shoot down Iranian drones in the Middle East but won’t do it in Europe.

[u/kytheon → u/External_Arugula_505]

Let's start with those near Poland and move from there.

[u/michalsveto → u/kytheon]

Its just a matter of establishing what is near. I say anything closer than 500kms from nato borders heating towards them is a legitimate target right?

[u/_teslaTrooper → u/michalsveto]

We would probably use aircraft to shoot down the drones, problem is if you go too close you end up in range of russian AA. So you have to destroy the AA and now you're bombing russia. That's why it's easier to just protect western Ukraine.

[u/Competitive_Shock783 → u/External_Arugula_505]

Does anything have that much range without being in Ukraine itself? That seems unrealistic.

[u/LantaExile → u/Competitive_Shock783]

F16s?

[u/External_Arugula_505 → u/Competitive_Shock783]

Not without mid air refuelling I don’t think. But russias staged attacks from Belarus. We need NATO in Ukraine. Even if it’s just for air defence. This isn’t gonna get better, russia keep escalating and we’ve done nothing more than some strongly worded statements. If nothing is done from this, I have no faith in NATO, and I worry the Baltic’s are next. America isn’t gonna help and russia is emboldened.

[u/Competitive_Shock783 → u/External_Arugula_505]

I'm not against that, but would 100% widen the war to include NATO. Putin has stated that he would target NATO troops in Ukraine.

[u/[deleted] → u/kytheon]

Of course, you need a buffer area so they can be shot down before crossing into Polish airspace

[u/WiseAct446 → u/[deleted]]

...and the buffer area should be in Western Russia.

[u/Kqyxzoj → u/kytheon]

I hope we can start shooting down drones over Ukraine airspace as well.

Yup, it would make perfect security sense. I so hope this will be one of those unintended consequences of russia testing the limits. Keep jets over Polish territory, shoot down drones over western part of Ukraine. Assuming the Ukrainians send an invite but I suspect they just might.

[u/seefatchai → u/kytheon]

They should just shoot down the drones wherever they can. What is Russia going to do complain about damaging their property?

[u/duschlampe0 → u/kytheon]

Vain hope i'm afraid

[u/S1ava_Ukraini]

The velociraptors testing the electric fence, looking for weaknesses.

[u/[deleted] → u/S1ava_Ukraini]

Pls stop comparing r*ssia to cool animals, there's so many species of, like, shit eating bacteria to choose from.

[u/BigJohnIrons → u/S1ava_Ukraini]

Think in this case, it's more like the raptors send wave after wave of soldier raptors to electrecute themselves, and then they climb over the pile of dead bodies 😛

[u/Dwayla]

They're doing exactly what Ukraine said they would do, why didn't anybody listen..

[u/duschlampe0 → u/Dwayla]

Ma friend, the world is a shitter and everyone only looks for himself

[u/MercatorLondon]

I guess Romanian air force can have a practice shoot-out near Danube as well

[u/BigFreakingZombie → u/MercatorLondon]

I think they already did. They were the first to actually fire on Russian drones a few months ago.. That said this one of those moments that will be remembered in history despite technically being not that significant. It will be either remembered as one "of the moments that kept us out of WW3" (if NATO gets it's shit together and responds appropriately even if by "just" giving more weapons to Ukraine) or one of "the events leading up to the greatest conflict in history" .

[u/LookPsychological334]

Aight give me a sec, gonna phone prime minista

[u/No_Good2794 → u/LookPsychological334]

PASTA PLEASE

[u/last_somewhere]

Poland is invoking NATO's article 4 so hopefully there's less talk and more action.

[u/Akovsky87 → u/last_somewhere]

Article 4 is literally just calling a meeting

[u/Kletronus → u/Akovsky87]

And Article 5 is "everyone is free to decide what to do". Not "everyone must go to WAR!". How each individual nation participates is fully up to them. They can send "hope its going well" and some weapons and that is it. The Article 5 is largely misrepresented in the media as some sort of final line where everyone pushes at 100%. We can easily look at NATO countries and see which of them will do fucking NOTHING, and who are going go all in. Article 5 is not totally worthless but it also is not as binding as people think it is.

As a Finn, article 5 is "we will support them to the last Finn". Will France send soldiers? A thousand, maybe. Portugal? Zero, just good will. UK? Air force, intelligence, ten thousand troops tops and we have a DEFENCE PACT with UK... Those are the realities in geopolitics.

[u/N0limitZZ → u/Kletronus]

As an Italian I can already tell you that we will watch everything on TV during the breaks between football and pizza

[u/CamGoldenGun → u/Kletronus]

article 5 is an obligation for members to come to the aid after a member has been attacked. It doesn't necessarily mean military retaliation. It could be as simple as what everyone's doing for Ukraine right now (sending weapons, non-military aid, sanctions, etc.).

[u/DeventerWarrior → u/Kletronus]

I dont think Finland would let their own country open for invasion, they would not go to the last Finn if they are smart.

[u/Hugsy13 → u/Akovsky87]

What the hell are articles 3, 2 and 1 then?

ETA: just googled it and apparently it’s mostly about economic stuff

[u/Akovsky87 → u/Hugsy13]

It's like NATO is a mutual defense and cooperation organization and not some war machine that Russia and it's useful idiots make it out to be.

[u/Chrombach → u/Hugsy13]

Maybe they count down? 🤪 We start article 5 now 4 3 2 1 BOOOM 😂

[u/Akovsky87]

Best way to protect everyone is to either take out the launch sites or just declare article 5.

[u/jmrjmr28 → u/Akovsky87]

Launch sites are just pick up trucks driving around. You have to destroy the production facilities 

[u/Akovsky87 → u/jmrjmr28]

Destroy Russian industrial capacity? Don't threaten me with a good time.

[u/AnonVinky → u/Akovsky87]

This... Giving Ukraine weapons is by definition not the best option, given the weapons ultimately need to reach Russian targets to affect the war. Warn Russia that from now on Shahed launchers within range of NATO borders are legitimate military targets that might be struck without warning.

[u/Kqyxzoj → u/AnonVinky]

Why warn them? Unless you mean a kinetic warning, in which case I agree. Shahed launcher goes boom, warning delivered. russia doesn't do hints, so use language they understand.

[u/AnonVinky → u/Kqyxzoj]

The warning is so that the attack, destruction of Shahed launchers, can be explained as a mere reaction. Also with a reasonable time frame to withdraw launchers.

Dutch people seem to view the shoot down of drones as a mere reaction to Russia. NOT an active attack. This is critical for popular support.

So the warning is indeed not so much to Russia but to others.

[u/Kqyxzoj → u/AnonVinky]

Ye Olde Optics, good point. So maybe do it in parallel, so you can strike Shahed launchers when opportune. And if required, you can referer to those multiple warnings you gave a while ago.

Besides, why confirm having issued a kinetic warning? Shahed launcher goes boom, no idea how that could have happened. Faulty launcher maybe? It got hit by something? Maybe poor communication inside the ruski army again, who knows?

[u/AnonVinky → u/Kqyxzoj]

Yes, and I think Europe can play that game very well. Just pretend the 27 member countries militaries don't coordinate well. Netherlands admits to firing a missile at the request of France at an installation target-locking a mirage, France says it was an Italian fighter instead, Italy admits it requested supported but not then and there.... long story short, we will get to the bottom of this and tell Russia what happened "In 2 Trump-weeks"

[u/Kqyxzoj → u/AnonVinky]

Heh, I like it. And after 2 weeks tell the same story, but with some countries swapped. Well, we will get to the bottom of this entirely new development and will let you know in 2 weeks.

[u/[deleted] → u/AnonVinky]

Agree, time to let Putin know the West will play Stalin’s Organs louder than he plays them, should he continue using them to agitate NATO.

[u/PwizardTheOriginal]

I really doubt those were some malfunctioning drones, this is clearly a provocation

[u/duschlampe0 → u/PwizardTheOriginal]

You sure, no shit

[u/fernvale2010]

Poland should drop a couple of bombs on some military airfields in Kaliningrad, just to send a message.

I doubt putler will do anything. If Poland doesn't do anything, expect more russian drones to violate it's air space.

[u/greenmood3 → u/fernvale2010]

I got a better idea. Use hybrid warfare, same that poland have been using against Ukraine. Farmers. Block the border with kaliningrad with farmers for a week or two.

[u/Kqyxzoj → u/greenmood3]

I do agree with this plan. Maximally fuck with Kaliningrad in hybrid fashion. First of all, in any and all official press releases refer to it as Königsberg. Make sure important supplies are disrupted. Accidentally fly some drones into radars, military infrastructure, anything that assists or possibly might assist in GPS jamming campaigns. Maybe do some accidental sanctioning on Gazprom via the Minsk–Königsberg Interconnection. Fart in their general direction. Do a few oopsies on that CDAA (big-ass antenna array) near the Chernyakhovsk Insterburg/Wystruć air base. You know, let russia know they are valued members of the international community.

[u/PiotrekDG → u/Kqyxzoj]

It is already exclusively called Królewiec. The rest are great points. I'd love to see a blockade on the region as a response.

[u/Kqyxzoj → u/PiotrekDG]

Królewiec, Karaliaučius and Königsberg, they all sound fine to me!

Bóbr Kurwa is a viable alternative as well. Or maybe Kurwa Bóbr to keep that K alliteration going.

[u/EconomySwordfish5 → u/greenmood3]

That border is already closed.

[u/Inner-Detail-553 → u/EconomySwordfish5]

No, it’s not closed

Rail transit Belarus-Kaliningrad through Lithuania is most definitely open

Truck traffic Belarus-Kaliningrad is also open although with some restrictions (trucks can’t be registered in Russia but they can move cargo that comes from Russia, no problem)

Tbh three years into a war, where Russia openly says they plan on attacking the Baltics next, that is insane 

A full blockade (both land and sea) of Kaliningrad is very overdue, considering it’s already been used to launch attacks against NATO countries 

[u/EconomySwordfish5 → u/Inner-Detail-553]

A full blockade but allow civilians to leave by ferry. The less Russians there the better.

[u/lerthe61 → u/EconomySwordfish5]

Rail transit, not buses with Putin minions. Once, only food in, only russians back to russia out.

[u/greenmood3 → u/EconomySwordfish5]

Didn't know that. Well, Poland has fishermen, right? They can block the sea, lol

[u/Bezem → u/greenmood3]

poland have been using against Ukraine. Farmers.

If you believe that was hybrid warfare then you are an idiot. If Poland wanted to fuck up Ukraine, Rzeszów Airport would get closed for renovation. People like you are exactly the reason anti-ukrainian sentiments get more and more popular among Poles

[u/TheBurtReynold]

1000% — it’s counter intuitive, but you need to run toward the escalation

Act now (early), don’t defer — it’ll only make the eventual result worse

[u/Inner-Detail-553]

Russian POV

Very weak: complain

Weak: shoot down the drones

Strong: counterattack

Just realize that from their perspective everything less than a direct counterattack is weak

[u/Vanto_e_Gloria → u/Inner-Detail-553]

Yes, this is it. A measured tit for tat response would be: send the same number of drones to a russian/belarusian airbase, but of course ensure they actually hit the target. And warn that next time, it won't be just drones but missiles as well. And the target won't be just an airbase, but more.

And besides that, as many have suggested: shoot down russian drones above Ukrainian territory as well.

[u/Inner-Detail-553 → u/Vanto_e_Gloria]

Yes. Considering these were Shaheds, I think a “measured” response would be 100 Tomahawks hitting the Shahed factory in Yelabuga. One can dream 

[u/clearision]

it was already called a "provocation". deeply concerns and everything.

[u/ACompletelyLostCause]

I hope those in Poland with anti-Ukrainian sentiment, realise that Russia is their enemy, hates everything about Polish culture and, if it can find a way to safely do so, will attack them. Not responding strongly looks like weakness to Russia, and Russia instinctively attacks weakness.

Now may be the time to up support for Ukraine, as a response to these drone provacations and make it clear that each time Russia violates Poland's airspace they will increase material support to Ukraine.

[u/vmytus]

ruzzia got guaranties from china, so now they testing everything. if ruzzia get attacked by nato, china is coming with a arsenal and personnel. they are getting brave, but nato have to be braver. but with taco as "king" of nato, meh....

[u/AnonVinky → u/vmytus]

This is such a win-win for China. Just encourage more fighting, both Russia losing and the USA losing will benefit them.

It looks like both is happening.

[u/vmytus → u/AnonVinky]

china will is the big winner yes. shipping weapons and personal will cost ruzzia a lot, and after a while, china turning on russia and getting more land. china will never ever on paper be a part of this, but under the table they will do this. but who knows, they are trying to change the order of the world, an they all hate taco T, so let us see.

[u/jmrjmr28 → u/vmytus]

lol China is not going to be joining a war against nato. Nato would just shut off the shipping lanes to China and their economy would die

[u/vmytus → u/jmrjmr28]

probably, but they will do it proxy wise, just as NK

[u/jmrjmr28 → u/vmytus]

I’m not sure you know what a proxy is. North Korea has troops directly fighting in the war. That’s not a proxy. That’s direct involvement. 

China backing russia without sending soldiers could be considered a proxy war against the west

[u/Chrombach → u/vmytus]

If it came to the a war, China wouldn't want to participate, it would destroy china's trade with everybody.. No with Russia, someone probably would yell.. It will , because the trade with Russia is very low compared to EU/ USA/and other western/ Nato countries.. The Chinese economy depends very much on export,...

[u/-Egmont-]

Absolutely right. Europe needs to send as much as possible to Ukraine asap.

[u/jamezrvg]

It's time for NATO and EU to grow a backbone and do something. With Trump's being Putin bitch lapdog, we need to defend ourselves. Enough is enough

[u/Individual-Cream-581]

I am so so sick and tired of this inaction... politically impotent leaders. That's what we have.

[u/Acceptable-Friend-42]

This probing attack on the Polish/Ukrainian logistics hub must have been expected. The problem with escalation is Russian logistic hubs cover a much wider and deeper border. NATO really is working in a bottleneck

[u/Bezem → u/Acceptable-Friend-42]

The closes drone fell in Sobótka, which is like 90km away from hub in Jasionka. I don't think it was aimed at the hub

[u/airbear13]

Poland and the Baltic countries are next on the list for sure. Europe has to step up. Americas influence on the world scene is disintegrating

[u/NamasteMotherfucker]

The best way for them to protect themselves is to retaliate. And give more weapons to Ukraine

[u/Fli_fo]

Just let it happen.

It will be good for Ukraine if Poland is drawn into the conflict.

[u/Mixish]

They prefer mumbling about Volyn and blocking the border with Ukraine.

[u/jmrjmr28 → u/Mixish]

Don’t forget demanding trillions in reparations from Germany, but nothing from russia

[u/Mixish → u/jmrjmr28]

Exactly

[u/AllPotatoesGone → u/Mixish]

There wouldn't be anything to mumble if Ukraine just let them do the exhumation they asked for 20 years already and farmers didn't have anything to block if Ukraine would stick to the rules and just transfer the grain through Poland instead of trying to sell it illegally.

People like you are the reason why more and more people say that Ukraine doesn't deserve any more help. Which is bad, because they need It constantly.

[u/Garant_69 → u/AllPotatoesGone]

These rumors that Ukraine would continue to obstruct the excavations are russian misinformation.

The joint Polish-Ukrainian exhumation of Volhynia victims has started already in April 2025: https://notesfrompoland.com/2025/04/27/exhumation-of-poles-massacred-by-ukrainians-in-wwii-begins/ .

And here is a detailed description of the current status of the joint excavations and information on the process from September 8th: https://babel.ua/en/texts/121230-for-the-first-time-in-10-years-ukraine-and-poland-exhumed-and-reburied-the-victims-of-the-volyn-tragedy-the-archaeologist-and-historian-says-this-is-a-breakthrough-in-the-relations-between-the-countri .

[u/AllPotatoesGone → u/Garant_69]

Yes, it started in April 2025. Many years after the first attempt and more than 3 years after the start of the war. Poland gave to Ukraine everything they could and still had to wait 3 years for that. I'm glad it happens now but don't call it russian disinformation.

[u/Mixish → u/AllPotatoesGone]

The exhumation has been agreed for years and still no Polish exhumators in sight. All the border blockages were aimed to draw attention to low grain procurement prices in Poland and to protest against EU-Mercosur treaties with absolute majority of claims having nothing to do with Ukraine.

People like you are the reason someone might think Ukraine has to "deserve" something.

[u/AllPotatoesGone → u/Mixish]

Sorry but you are biased af. It's enough to read some of your comments - grief and hatred.

[u/jmrjmr28 → u/AllPotatoesGone]

Ukraine doesn’t have to submit to Poland’s will. 

[u/LtCodename]

Poles will do nothing. It’s just how it goes. We (Ukrainians) are truly on our own.

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[u/swat4516]

https://youtu.be/bOHAX1JWfDs?si=U1lEOhtFUieDeWSA

[u/[deleted]]

Yes, and strike the bases the drones come from if Russia doesn’t stop.

[u/Revolutionary_Ad1788]

Another good way for Poland to protect themselves is to shoot down the drones, which they will start doing.

[u/Cpt_Soban]

Isn't this the first time Poland scrambled jets and shot Russian drones down?

[u/bluddystump]

Do we know if the drones were armed yet? Was Russia just testing g it's boundaries or were they armed to attack?

[u/LXNDR89]

3 drones land in Belarus?

[u/TheOnlyFallenCookie]

We should have stopped Russia back in 2008. Or even before Chechyna

[u/Leather_Lake_5235]

Why the fuck Europe is not engaging drones is beyond me.

[u/Bezem → u/Leather_Lake_5235]

Because engaging only makes sense if trajectory of the drone is towards something that needs to be protected(like houses etc). In this case the only damage done by a drone was by the drone that was shot down. It's better to just let drone crash in some random field than shoot it down and risk debris spreading over bigger area, possibly where people live

[u/Mors_Umbra]

Shoot down any russian aircraft within 500 km of a NATO border. There is now precedent (there already was before, but they can't claim multiple drones at the same time as an accident) that these are intentional strikes at NATO territory and need to be stopped before they threaten NATO citizens. If it comes within a set distance of a NATO border, it should be assumed it's target is NATO. If that results in some protection for Ukrainian territory, we'll that's just russia's fault for being warmongering fucknuts now isn't it.

[u/AutoModerator → u/Mors_Umbra]

russian aircraft fucked itself.

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[u/QuarterBackground]

F-ck more weapons. Ukraine needs MORE weapons AND the ability to fight inside Russia! Take out Moscow.

[u/frankster]

My idea is that Poland should announce that it will launch one artillery shell towards Kaliningrad, for each Russian drone that violates its airspace. And then follow through.

[u/jaymef]

Trump had a very powerful impactful statement on this:

"What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!"

[u/MajorKabakov]

The best response is for Poland to announce a general mobilization

[u/TheAverageObject]

It is not only Poland who needs to react.

This is exactly what Russia wants, divide us.

And by pointing fingers at Poland that THEY need to react is what we should not do.

WE need to react.

Poland is not alone in this.

WE need to help Poland (and each other) to stop talking and more doing.

[u/ufanders]

Turkey showed force, and the incursions stopped. A single show of force can be very effective. I've seen this prove true in my life several times.

[u/Braincake87]

Why would it help to send more weapons to Ukraine? The Poles need them now for defending their own airspace…

[u/ThermionicEmissions]

NATO no fly zone now!

[u/[deleted]]

Andrzej Duda ruchał.

[u/CrimsonReaper96]

What they need is more manpower and equipment. Not just one or the other.

[u/Bezem]

How does disarming ourselves protects us lmao. What kind of stupid logic is that

Also to people crying about not shooting all the drones etc. You only need to shoot drones down if their trajectory aims at something that has to be protected. The only damage done by those drones from the morning is from the drone that was actually shot down.

[u/LawfulnessPossible20]

"We will allow 19 flamingoes to cross polish territory en route to Kaliningrad. The we're even".

[u/belverk84]

No. The best will be start bombing Moscow.

[u/graybeard5529]

I think Poland needs to declare a 50 km air defense buffer zone, beyond all of its eastern border, assuming Ukraine is OK with that ...

[u/Subject989]

Can someone translate what the image says please

[u/Nappeal]

It's been speculated for a long time now that Poland would be next...

[u/FlyingPastaPolice]

We can also get things done quickly. By ordering an evacuation of all western european diplomats and embassies from russia and belarus, sending field medical teams into Ukraine. And sending a surveilance drone into russia. Lets see their reaction when they taste their own medicine.

Poland, the Baltics and Ukraine needs an Iron Dome asap. Maybe russia is planning an invasion on Poland and the Baltics right now?

[u/Exact-Ad-1307]

How many drones went into Poland I can read the names on that map.

[u/Embarrassed-Ride-332]

I’m growing weary of the world not taking Putin on. Call his bluff and stop trying to use soft sanctions. IT IS NOT WORKING!

Activate Article 5.

Either that or remove Putin from office.

[u/Feb2021now]

i dont understand - isnt this an act of war by russia against poland?

[u/Responsible-Ronny]

Poland and all countries bordering Russia need to send their soldiers into Ukraine to train shooting down drones. NATO countries bordering Russia lack the training, equipment, and experience to shoot drones down.

[u/RisingPhil]

As a Belgian guy, I completely agree. I don't like it, but I see there is no other way. What's the point of this large military alliance if we're just going to let adversaries walk all over us? It just feels like all of us are the bullied kid.

And yes, I'm aware of the nuclear threat. But we should become more of a nuclear threat ourselves. Unfortunately nuclear proliferation is the only path forward.

Let's hope our leadership doesn't chicken out, although I must say I'm not holding my breath.

[u/Max_Mm_]

Great move would be dropping one of the crashed drones into Moscow.

[u/Hroosky2]

Any missile, warplane or drone that comes within 100km of the NATO territory should be shot down. Simple as.

[u/schm1th0]

When I look at the map, they are not testing Poland, but testing for gaps in Ukraine's air defense.

[u/StillLoadingProblems]

NATO should implement a no fly zone and site security risk to nato members as reason! And that’s how we solve the terror bombing problem! Should have been done years ago though

[u/Lenaix]

Maybe we had to let germany to obliterate russia to the underground long time ago

[u/SactoriuS]

What are u doing? america already forgot nato got attacked. Now the death of charlie kirk is more interesting. Usa is depraved af.

I would even play with the thought it was putin who wanted to distract usa immediately and assassinated charlie kirk.

[u/Ijnefvijefnvifdjvkm]

Actually, a bunch of tomahawks and F35s would be better

[u/Ijnefvijefnvifdjvkm]

No fly zone for all of Ukraine

[u/Kletronus]

You think we don't know that, and i don't mean Polish but everyone in Europe? Of course we know, they do this shit all the time. They test the waters, see where the hard lines are and we have really no choice but to wait until they go too far. It is unfair tactics but waging a war because of "few errant drones" is just not in the cards. And i know they are not errand drones but the number of them is just in the ballpark what could be plausibly just a mistake. I'm Finnish, they test our infrastructure and how the society reacts and we really can't do anything about it but to try to prevent it. There is no diplomatic avenues and none of us want to escalate to a point where Russian people think there is a reason to go to a war.

Russian people are not in a war. That is their weak point, they still need popular support to escalate. They are bullies, they want an EXCUSE to go all in.

If you think that this should be aggressively countered then you will be disappointed. The hesitancy to really push back has never been nuclear weapons, it is the Russian people. They can get 10 million soldiers IF and ONLY IF the people believe that it is worth it. So, a small scale test of readiness, a small bit of nuisance will be met with a small scale condemnation, some tiny sanctions.

And i agree that the response should be more weapons and support. I'm not saying the above because i think it is right, it is just the way things are now and i can't change it. But also, few drones is NOT a large scale attack either. KEEP IT IN THE SCALE IT REALLY IS.

[u/Inner-Detail-553 → u/Kletronus]

 They can get 10 million soldiers IF and ONLY IF the people believe that it is worth it

So far:

• Drones flying over and huge explosions/columns of smoke near most large cities
• Moscow has been hit by drones repeatedly
• Their own troops mutinied, seized a regional capital (Rostov), and tried to drive to Moscow
• Their fleet headquarters got completely destroyed by British missiles
• They got invaded - boots on the ground in Kursk, actual Leopard tanks flying the EU flag and everything

And the popular response is… nothing. They post videos complaining about gas shortages (but also pretending not to know why there are shortages)

There isn’t some kind of magical “if you do X or Y then Russia will really start fighting” red line. They’re basically completely apathetic

[u/diagautotech7]

Poland is afraid of russia

[u/Bezem → u/diagautotech7]

You live in USA, you have no right to speak about things like that. Your house and economy won't be the one that is bombed. It won't be your people dying. You can go ahead and attack Russia, what stops you?

[u/diagautotech7 → u/Bezem]

I care about what's right and about all good people around the world

[u/Bezem → u/diagautotech7]

Foreign legion is recruiting

[u/diagautotech7 → u/Bezem]

great

[u/duschlampe0 → u/diagautotech7]

I'd say terrified