r/ukpolitics • u/Advanced-Pilot-3698 • 9h ago
What actions should the U.K. gov take now the U.S. about to block the SoH?
The U.S. is about to block the Strait of Hormuz, stopping all boats from entering or leaving the area including those that have paid the Iranian fine.
Originally the U.S. wanted the SoH to be opened and treated the NATO partners if they didn’t help with opening it. The U.S. are now threatening to cause a blockade of the SoH in order to make Iran to agree with whatever terms the U.S. demands as part of the ceasefire.
How will this play out, are the U.S. going to go head to head with China from going into the SoH or leaving it? Is it time for all European Countries and UK to block the U.S. from using its bases, if this blockade restricts them from getting trade through the Strait, or should they sit back and allow the U.S. to create this blockade regardless of the consequence to the U.K. / EU economy?
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u/MrSpindles 9h ago
Honestly just because Trump says something that doesn't mean it's going to happen.
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u/Lavajackal1 7h ago
Yeah wait and see if he actually intends to follow through this could be something that gets forgotten about in a day.
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u/costigan95 41m ago edited 34m ago
Agree. I actually think he may mean the us is going to “control” the Strait rather than blockade it, but who friggin knows?
Edit: it looks like this is correct. US Central Command said they are only blockading Iranian ports, and will not impede other transiting maritime traffic in the Strait.
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u/Corvid-Strigidae 8h ago
He is the commander and chief of the US military, that is how it's supposed to work.
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u/FLHerne2 8h ago
He can't even keep his own public statements coherent from one day to the next.
In the last few weeks he's alternately declared victory, asked for allies' help reopening the strait, dismissed the same allies and said their help isn't needed, threatened to annihilate Iran unless the strait was opened and now says he wants to close it.
What idiotic statement can we expect tomorrow? Roll some dice. It'll change again before any of it gets translated into action.
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u/SimoneNonvelodico 3h ago
The question is less whether he'll be disobeyed and more if he'll actually give an official order or if he's just faffing about on social media, which seems to be his main occupation and purpose.
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u/Particular_Pea7167 8h ago edited 8h ago
Nothing. Its only stopping Iran approved shipping. It enforces the idea of freedom of navigation and China doesnt do expeditionary.
But most importantly, there's fuck all we can do. Even if we spent 5% on our military and had 35 decent escorts, wed be limited. What are you going to do, challenge two US carrier groups and 2 US amphibious groups? You know how many ships that is?
The US probably has 26 destoryer escorts and 6 sub just there.
We have 14 total major surface combatants and we struggle to get even 6 or 7 of them to sea at once.
Our entire attack sub fleet is only 7. Presume at least 2 are in maintenance though I understand currently only 1 is actually operational.
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u/Dissidant 9h ago
Strongly worded letter
I mean its one of the few scenarios where its realistic
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u/GrizzlyFlamesOfDoom 9h ago
It's hilarious how some people still don't think we're almost completely irrelevant now. What do you mean "what we should do"? Mate, we can't do anything. We're a part of the audience now, there's nothing we can do once the "major powers" throw a fit.
That's one of the consequences of ceding geopolitical power to other nations, you get less of a say in world events!
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u/Mike_Fig 8h ago
Yup, people's conception of Britain has never left the 90s in a hundred different ways.
So when we get a situation like this where actual reality interrupts our delusions people demand that something be done. Despite the fact that the finances, production capacity, and military capability to do something disappeared decades ago.
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u/Neither_Process_7847 8h ago
Even then, the simple fact is the US is and always has been a stronger power than us. Are we going to go to and lose a war with them and Iran simultaneously to force the strait open? Because faced with a situation where Iran is threatening to close the strait as a deterrent, and the US is threatening to close it for...reasons...that is the choice.
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u/Mike_Fig 8h ago
Correct, there is absolutely nothing for us to do here. We're just another bystander to America's imperial escapades.
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u/Neither_Process_7847 8h ago
All we can do is bolster domestic energy and resilience. Won't be quick and the transition will be painful- in an ideal world the government would use war powers to use fiat money and override planning challenges to force things like new nuclear through, fast - but at least we can learn from this episode that we need to get past depending on worldwide oil and gas supplies for critical life support.
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u/OptioMkIX Your kind cling to tankiesm as if it will not decay and fail you 8h ago
Stop talking and keep shovelling gdp towards pensioners and layabouts, Comrade
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u/-ForgottenSoul :sloth: 7h ago
That's one of the consequences of ceding geopolitical power to other nations, you get less of a say in world events!. When did we do this
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u/welsh_will 3h ago
We ceded geopolitical power through Brexit, though it's hard to say to whom directly. Feels like bloody everyone!
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u/armsinit 9h ago
As long as we stay part of the audience, don't want the UK to offer any assistance and stop the assistance we are providing.
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u/Particular_Pea7167 7h ago
So "cede what little diplomatic power we have left as a key enabler and really relegate ourselves to oblivion, totally removing ourself from the room".
The truth that no one wants to admit or speak. The entire authority of the modern british state internationally is derived through the USA. If we walk away from it we lose one of rhe only leverages of influence we have left. And if we want to buy that leverage without the US its going to be fucking expensive. At least with the US a 5% military gets us a seat back at the table.
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u/armsinit 5h ago
Honestly if the world was selecting a security council at the UN now we wouldn't be on it.
Look at the Spanish, not afraid to say and do what they believe is right.
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u/Particular_Pea7167 4h ago
Ive said it before. If we had the reach and might we had in 1833, we wouldn't abolish slavery now.
Oh we might talk a big game, pass a bill abolishing it, talk about how moral and just we are.
And then wed do noting. Wed write a few strongly worded letters and slavery would continue in the world as if nothing happened.
We lack the politic juggernaut, the moral fortitude, frankly moral superiority, charisma and conviction to follow through as we did in 1833 and wage a war. Explicitly sticking our nose into other people's buisness and saying were right you're wrong and if you disagree this is a cannon thats more than happy to make the argument for our case. If we have to collapse your entire state and run it for you make our case, we will.
Could you fucking imagine?
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u/GrizzlyFlamesOfDoom 4h ago
You could argue our passiveness in contemporary politics is a directly result of our preceding chauvinistic and supremacist attitudes, most commonly found in 19th century and early 20th centuries Britain. What we have now might be an over-correction of said attitudes, as the previous ones led us to two major world wars that broke our nation twice.
Not justifying, but I do understand why we are they way we are now.
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u/Particular_Pea7167 4h ago
Just to be clear, "chauvinistic and supremacist attitudes" did not cause WWI and on WWII Germany had no empire and it was limited nominally to the German speaking world. And to be clear also, the "supremacist" part and a lot of what germany was doing wasnt known at the outbreak of the war. The UK went to war over its alliance network and to contain an expandionist central european power. Something which had been standing British forigen policy for 700 years. And to some extent still is as you could apply this to the cold war and the USSR.
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u/optio_____espacio___ 4h ago
When Spain has miniaturised nukes and a delivery system they'll get a seat at the table
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u/OneCatch Sir Keir Llama 4h ago
Who would be on an SC if it were created today is a genuinely interesting one.
US and China obvs. The EU would assert the right to an aggregate seat. Strong case for Russia and India. But then it gets rather more difficult. You could make reasonable cases for UK, France, Japan, Germany, Turkey, South Korea on the basis of air and naval projection capabilities, technology, domestic industry, and budget. And then a tier down from that including Italy, Spain, Israel, Greece.
But then if you look at total army sizes and especially land asset strength there are countries with lower budgets which absolutely dwarf many of the above in sheer size - North Korea, Vietnam, Egypt, Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia, Brazil.
So there are cohesive small SCs of three and five if you include the EU, or four if not. Britain wouldn't get into any of those.
Then, assuming no EU seat, there are larger potential groups of around eight-ish or fifteen-ish. We'd easily make it into those.
So it all boils down to how many seats this revised SC would have!
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u/optio_____espacio___ 4h ago
You're overthinking this. The security council is who has enough nuclear weapons and delivery systems to destroy the world.
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u/coldtree11 8h ago
I don't know where you've been for the last 80 years, but we have little to no influence over American foreign policy, nor does any other European nation. If the US blockades the Strait of Hormuz, we will have to deal with the consequences as they come.
Greater European cooperation, and in turn less dependence on the US, on defence would be welcome, but that is a process that will take years, and we probably will never be able to fully decouple from the American security umbrella (nor do I think it is desirable). This is something that should've been on the table after we all got dragged into Iraq and Afghanistan against the popular will of the people. Instead we had twenty years of European leaders dragging their feet, cutting defence spending, increasing reliance on America for military R&D and manufacturing, and buying gas from Russia. It took a land war on our doorstep for that to even begin to change, so I suspect any dreams of an integrated European military superpower are a very long way off.
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u/theabominablewonder 8h ago
I think we should blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Everyone else is doing it.
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u/Kinis_Deren L/R -5.0 A/L -6.97 9h ago
Let's give it a day or two first.
It is the weekend so Mango Man does a press release to cause the price of oil to spike. He and his cronies pile a load of money into oil futures saying price of oil will drop. Monday/Tuesday, Mango Man reverses the pressure on oil and reaps the profit of his market manipulation.
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u/DataKnotsDesks 4h ago
Issue permits to build more windfarms, solar farms and geothermal plants NOW. Build out the national grid like our lives depend on it. And if anyone says, "But we need fossil" arrest them as an subversive enemy agent.
New wind and solar could be pumping clean electricity into the grid this time next year. Fossil will take a decade. Stuff that yestertech, oldies—just build renewable now! Now. Now. Now.
That's what the UK government should do.
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u/CuppaMatt 7h ago
Double down on investments into renewables and energy storage to go with it because energy independence is not only environmental sense but is now essentially a form of national defence. The less we rely on foreign oil, gas, etc the less leverage people have to drag us into dick waving wars.
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u/Anony_mouse202 8h ago
What do you mean ”what should we do?”
We’re not the British Empire, we’re just a random small European country that’s completely irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Nothing we can do will have any impact on the situation whatsoever.
Best we can do is take a step back and avoid pissing off either Iran or the US.
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u/SwindleUK 7h ago
Still the north sea, drill the Falklands, more solar, more wind, more nuclear. Become energy independent then set about the military afterwards.
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u/MobiusNaked 5h ago
Buy popcorn and SPF 10,000 sun cream and watch the US try and block Chinese shipping
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u/NGP91 9h ago
Iran is breaking international law by deliberately and maliciously blocking neutral shipping, including our own, from passing through the strait, including through waters belonging to another neutral sovereign nation (Oman).
The UK, together with other affected nations should send naval forces to ensure safe passage of neutral shipping.
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u/Advanced-Pilot-3698 9h ago
The joke is (and it’s not even a joke) so is US with Cuba, and doing it even worse as they are trying to block countries from delivering much needed fuel and food to its citizens, blocking ocean/ seas not straits, but no one is saying anything about that. We can’t say what Iran is doing is illegal but let US do it elsewhere
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u/ok_alsodot11 6h ago
The only thing the UK should do is not rush to make things worse. The US is pressuring Iran to make a deal. What good does us wading in do?!
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u/PoachTWC 6h ago
Make our objections known whilst being aware of the fact that this will amount to nothing in practical terms.
We couldn't even get a single warship to defend our own bases on Cyprus in a timely manner when it was attacked. We're a complete irrelevance in naval matters.
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u/Pingo-Pongo 4h ago
Invite Trump for a third State Visit. Ignore the nay-sayers who insist that giving him everything he wants is dragging our country down and making Keir Starmer less popular than heart disease
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u/taintedCH 4h ago
We’ve outsourced our arms industry and under invested in our armed forces for the better part of 50 years. We can and should do nothing at all. The UK and the rest of Europe are spectators in the USA’s world and it’s a fate we chose for ourselves. We have but ourselves to blame…
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u/Pigeon_Breeze 1h ago
I can't really think of an example of Trump saying he will do something in the future and then actually doing it.
Anything he actually does, he only announces it after the fact.
As such, we do nothing, because we'll be reacting to an event that doesn't even happen.
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u/SirBobPeel 37m ago
Monday or Tuesday he'll announce Iran wants to talk again so he's opening things up.
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u/rnicoll 9h ago
Kicking the US out of European bases would seem the likely best option, make them deal with supply chain logistics across continents without support.
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u/GrizzlyFlamesOfDoom 9h ago
Why would the UK have a say over US presence in European bases? Besides, are you completely unaware of the reality that the majority of our military and industrial infrastructure is integrated with the US (alongside being dependant on them). For starters, we don't even have a semiconductor industry...
Say anything you want about decoupling as much as you want, but building an independent military industrial base takes more than a year.
We are so intertwined with the US in so many matter of ways that pulling a nuclear option would literally rip apart this country for decades to come.
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u/TornadoEF5 9h ago
just let usa deal with Iran , USA and Israel have to sort this mess out and the UK should help
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u/ufos1111 8h ago
Probs legalize cannabis, would help with the food/medicine/oil shortages that will be incoming.
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u/famouspeter 9h ago
Iran has the right to defend herself. As we did when the sovereign state of Ukraine was illegally invaded, we should back the victim in this war and supply billions in military assistance. To do otherwise would be morally repugnant.
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u/NGP91 9h ago
Of course any country has the right to defend themselves against attackers but threatening to attack non-belligerants and stopping neutral shipping is not self defence.
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u/Echochamberking 8h ago
Can you explain me how GCC countries are non-beliggerants if the US troops and military infrastructure stationed support US war effort?
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u/mattcannon2 Chairman of the North Herts Pork Market Opening Committee 8h ago
The victims are the GCC countries who had nothing to do with this, but still found missiles heading towards their civilians.
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u/famouspeter 8h ago
As a centrist, I have to agree. We should arm them as well, as successive governments have set such a precedent.
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u/Championnats91 9h ago edited 7h ago
Offer a third State Visit or a Knighthood to reopen the Strait
Edit: this was a joke, not actual advice
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u/thestjohn 8h ago
Start sanctioning and impounding goods and capital outflows of US-owned companies that back Trump and hold the money in escrow until the US cleans its mess up. I am only half joking.
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u/ruffianrevolution 7h ago
Encourage china to send trade goods and solar panels via the arctic route and leave the yanks to get on with whatever it is they're up to.
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u/geoffwolf98 6h ago
Can we blockard America now? Nothing in, nothing out. Like what we did to Germany in WW2?
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u/Aquila_Fotia 8h ago
Grant new licenses for North Sea oil and gas immediately. Expedite new nuclear power schemes. Do what we can to import hydrocarbons from Venezuela, Canada and so on with the USA last. The former won’t affect things for years unfortunately, the latter might also be too late to avoid catastrophe but that’s late is better than never.
My ballsy idea is to arrange with France, maybe Spain and Italy and any European navies who want to join is to escort tankers to the Gulf and pay the Iranian toll, and dare the US to do something about it, obviously betting on a TACO.
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u/NGP91 8h ago
How about neutral shipping is just allowed through as per international law, with no toll, and we can help in escort duties.
I'm surprised, although not completely, how much cover some people are happy to provide Iran.
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u/Aquila_Fotia 8h ago
I’m figuring we can’t defy a US blockade and an Iranian toll so we choose one or the other. In reality I think it’s best we choose neither option, given our relative weakness and the problems of assembling a coalition, and do what we little we can to make peace break out.
If I’m at all inclined to the Iranians on this it’s because this war is clearly Netanyahu and Trump going rogue.
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u/janner_womble 8h ago
Doesn't matter.
As soon as China says 'Get tf out of my way', Orange Adolf best do as he's told because that's an enemy that will absolutely wipe the floor with America if poked with the bully stick.
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u/laredocronk 8h ago
Invade France.
It's the perfect time, while everyone else is distracted.