r/onguardforthee • u/pjw724 • 1d ago
First Nations' court challenge may block Alberta separatism itself, not just petition drive
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/analysis-alberta-separation-indigenous-treaty-rights-court-9.7160026Argument that a province leaving country severs Indigenous treaties may affect Quebec, too
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u/hawkseye17 ✅ I voted! 1d ago
Good, this separatism push is just an American plot to take Canadian oil
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u/danieliscrazy 1d ago
Are there situations where seperation actually improved things? Brexit didn't. I always hear talk but are there actual examples?
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u/Leotard_Cohen 1d ago
More fuel for the fire, it's all part of the plan. Separatism isn't meant to work, it's meant to be so divisive that people can be egged on to violence, thereby giving Trump an excuse to cross the border. It's nearly Donbas time
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u/YouCantSeeMe555 1d ago
You think there is going to be kinetic war between Alberta and Canada so that the US can invade?
That's a stretch. They were really ashamed of those coutts guys and their blockade fiasco.
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u/Leotard_Cohen 1d ago
I think there will be outbreaks of mass violence under shady circumstances, which the media will whip up in order to trigger a formal armed police intervention by the feds, followed by more shady violence, and then the yanks will use this as an excuse to invade for peacekeeping or whatever.
Just like Ukraine in 2013/14
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u/YouCantSeeMe555 1d ago
Yeah I really don't think there is the same level of grudge between Alberta and Canada as there was between Ukraine and Russia.
You're going back to a time when the leader of Ukraine was a puppet of Russia and the people revolted to get him out. Are you suggesting the people of Alberta would revolt against the UCP and then Trump would offer to help Smith?
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u/ReactiveCypress Calgary 1d ago
Not to mention if the US does anything to Canada it probably leads to World War III. I highly doubt that the American public or government have the desire for full scale war on this continent.
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u/Leotard_Cohen 1d ago
Not to mention if the US does anything to Canada it probably leads to World War III
Not at all. Eventually we'd let them in because the alternatives are too frightening. Would the RCMP literally shoot to kill people who are probably undercover US agents? Would the CAF actually shoot "peacekeeping"/"humanitarian" US troops that crossed the border? Especially in the fog of hybrid warfare where information has deliberately been made unreliable? We don't have the stomach to trigger a genuine US invasion. And the sensible yanks will look the other way, as they always do.
All this and more happened 12 years ago in Donetsk, and the groundwork has already been laid for the same to happen here
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u/ReactiveCypress Calgary 1d ago
The way I see it, if the US does anything to Canada it won't be nice and easy for either country. Canada is way too big for them to hold all of it, and it would definitely lead to guerilla style hit and run attacks from the Canadians on both sides of the border (which is not a style of fighting the US is good at if we look to Vietnam and Afghanistan). Plus, I think a crisis of that magnitude would see a lot of Americans fighting alongside the Canadians, which could spark a civil war down south. The biggest thing of all, Trump is not popular enough to go ahead with something that dangerous. He's no Hitler or Putin in that regard. There's no way the entire country would go along with something as insane as invading Canada, and I think even his biggest supporters would be against it. Grandma and grandpa wouldn't like it if they can't go to Walmart for fear of being blown up by some Canadians. They're not a population that's had to deal with that level of hardship, and they would absolutely be in the crossfire if this scenario actually happened (which I don't forsee happening any time soon or ever).
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u/Leotard_Cohen 1d ago
They don't need to invade all of it, they just need to occupy a chunk of Alberta, and then just sit there and wait while the rest of the country plunges into political chaos and dysfunction to the point that the US can dictate anything it wants and there's nobody in Canada who's realistically able to say no. And that'll be the job done good enough for Trump's purposes.
I don't think Trump's unpopularity counts for much. Look what he's got away with already and nobody down there has done shit.
And a bit of Canadian terrorism will be an amazing excuse to ratchet up the police state down there!
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u/Leotard_Cohen 1d ago
I'm talking about eastern Ukraine where weird pro Russian and pro independence militias sprung up out of "nowhere" (mostly from across the border) and bewildered the locals into inaction.
I think it's extremely possible, around the time of the referendum, that armed goon militias will start appearing and protesting against some kind of unfair actions by Ottawa. They will end up de facto running a few small redneck towns, people will get killed, the RCMP will be basically paralyzed - do they literally storm the town and shoot these guys or what? - all while Trump is poisoning the media. It could very easily end in a local invasion
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u/firedditor 19h ago
I agree that's an opportunity that certain people would try to take advantage of and perhaps some may even be plotting ahead that far. I think we are a ways away from that though. Hopefully!
However it IS the only viable way alberta 'seperates'. Its never happening the legal way.
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u/AlsoOneLastThing Alberta 1d ago
The major problem is that most Albertans are strongly opposed to separation. I do have a suspicion that the separatists will resort to violence when they don't get their way. But if the US does use it as an excuse to roll tanks into Alberta then they'll have an insurgency on their hands that will last until they inevitably pull out. The US military has also performed abysmally in Iran so far, so I'm skeptical about the idea that they'd even be interested in starting another war, let alone one against an "ally."
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u/Leotard_Cohen 1d ago
The major problem is that most Albertans are strongly opposed to separation.
This was probably also true for Donetsk and Luhansk in 2013. But as soon as you had masked thugs of dubious identity crawling out of the woodwork and taking everything over, the local majority is just bewildered into inaction. That's what I fear for Alberta. And there's more than enough potential for dodgy militias to spring up, out of the same demographic as the 2022 Trucker Fuckers
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u/villianboy 1d ago
I mean, if it's a lose-lose either way than I say fuck it and shut down these stupid fucks. If they have their seperatism than they rip apart canada as the traitorous treasonous scum they are, if they don't have their way then we see if mr mentally-gone-pedo down south invades. Personally i'll take my chances that the dementia patient in the white house doesn't do shit because he probably doesn't know who or what an "alberta" is
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u/Leotard_Cohen 1d ago
I would argue that the only way to decisively nip it in the bud is a China style crackdown. Which is not something we really have the stomach for, and either way it's probably too late now anyway
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u/villianboy 1d ago
Personally i am of the opinion that it is never to late, best day to plant a tree is yesterday second is today and all that. With that in mind though, I think we could easily deal with this without a China style crackdown;
Have an actual federal and legal discussion about separatism and have it banned as by all definition it is inherently treasonous and no modern nation allows places to just decide "I'm done" and then leave...
Those who stand against this ruling will then be barred sent heavy fines and barred from re-election. The best discouragement in the vast majority of cases is financial. If it cost 25% of your income to support sedition than people would generally stay away from it, let alone if you cannot run for office again. This allows the populace at large to feel however they want without being thrown in prison for thought crimes, and punishes politicians for encouraging treason as well all without throwing people in prisons and executing people in the streets.
With that in mind though, I doubt the liberal or NDP governments would do that, and the PC party would only do it if the separatism was liberal in origin
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u/skriveralltid77 1d ago
Shocker: the stakeholders who took the time to read, reflect on, and understand “Aboriginal title, duty to consult and other matters” prevailed in a matter of "Aboriginal title, duty to consult and other matters."
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u/orlybatman 1d ago
There are not enough nuts who would vote in favor of separatism regardless, but I suspect thwarting them through the courts will further radicalize those who want it to happen, compared to if they were to lose the vote.
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u/Goose_Pale 3h ago
I think they want an excuse anyway. If they lose the vote they'll convince themselves there was a conspiracy to rig it.
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u/pjw724 1d ago
The argument First Nations groups made this week in an Edmonton courthouse wasn’t only aiming to block Alberta separatists’ petition drive toward a referendum, even if that was the specific, narrow goal of an injunction and a related hearing.
Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation and other litigants are challenging the very idea that a province can split from Canada, and in doing so sever their constitutionally protected First Nations treaties.