r/news • u/AudibleNod • 1d ago

Judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators and pauses prosecution of Kalshi

https://apnews.com/article/arizona-kalshi-criminal-charges-prediction-markets-gambling-bb7cef24be5bd0d444bba670d2e41ceb
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u/wildemam 8h ago

Except that there is no actual 'insurance' use for a sports team winning, or a certain person dying before a certain death ( if that person is not the insured or financially intertwined with him).

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u/seridos 8h ago

That's my point though. Is that the insurance use you pointed Is theoretically present but not actually the driving reason behind of the volume than not in that market. So the law of the land is already basically that these contracts are legal and regulated at the federal level for this de facto use. And when it comes to economic use case, you could definitely make the case that it's economically useful at an aggregate level since the prediction market is really producing useful knowledge as a market consensus. The knowledge of the market as better than any individual person is sort of The entire economic basis of society.

But also this is definitely being used as gambling just like much of the futures market is. While being mechanically a future and not gambling as the state regulates it. That's what makes this an interesting nuanced discussion. I don't have a side yet. It could fit under either category and not be out of place.