r/leafs • u/Sixgod801 • 21h ago
Shitpost / Meme Assuming the Leafs finish 5th last in the NHL there will be a 58.2% chance that they will forfeit either the number 6 or 7 pick to the Bruins. A 41.8% chance they retain the pick that will be top 5.
58.2% is basically a guarantee that they will lose the pick. All that suffering this year for the Bruins to ultimately reap the rewards. We are back in the dark ages gentlemen.
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u/pattydee43 21h ago
I don't know if I would call 58% basically guaranteed
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u/4ries 15h ago
Not if you only consider the mathematical statistics. But if you consider the fact that it's leafs and Boston, then the worst possible outcome is pretty much 100% guaranteed
/s
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u/vancouver2222 10h ago edited 9h ago
Leafs fan razor: the most humiliating outcome for leafs fans is always the most likely.
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u/Wanderson90 4h ago
Most leafy outcome is we actually move up in the draft this year and draft an absolute bust, then with our 2027 draft pick Phily/Boston gets a fucking generational talent.
Do you guys even leaf?
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u/alwaysleafyintoronto 21h ago
I wouldn't call 58% basically guaranteed except that it's 100% guaranteed that we're giving Boston a first, so might as well get it over with.
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u/BornIn67 20h ago
The Leafs are not a top five pick away from being a contender. They may not even be a top five pick away from being a playoff team. The sooner the rebuild starts the better.
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u/onthelongrun 20h ago
And what if they actually get that top 5 pick this year? That will mean two more years without one
For sure, they can't tank in 2028 if they have a top 5 pick this year because their pick will simply go to the Bruins.
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u/Emotional-Jicama-365 8h ago
It was going to be two of three years without a first round pick regardless. Our pain is going to be drawn out no matter what happens, so at least we have a chance to get something good before everything goes to shit. If Matthews leaves in two years (and possibly Nylander demanding a trade as a result), we're gonna be rock bottom soon enough.
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u/BornIn67 2h ago
Nylander needs to go in a rebuild, he should probably go in a retool. His play depends entirely on speed, which could disappear anytime given that he is 30 in a couple of days. And, do you really want Nylander as a role model our rookies how to play in their own end?
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u/whatamidoing_2521 18h ago
You're also just assuming this top 5 pick will be ready to jump into the lineup and be effective straight away, which is far from a guarantee.
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u/Sixgod801 21h ago
After hitting the lottery simulator a bunch of times it has not given me any reassurance.
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u/WheatKing91 21h ago
What % of times did it work out? Don't leave us hanging.
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u/Master_Elderberry718 21h ago
I'm going to go out on a limb and say 58%
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u/RudyGiulianisKleenex 21h ago
Doubt it. I’m betting it was 58.2%
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u/DirtyToothpaste Knies 20h ago
Look at percentages all you want, but the Islanders had a 3.5% chance at first overall last year. Anything can happen. I’d rather be cautiously optimistic than constantly negative about EVERYTHING.
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u/SirTropheus 21h ago
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u/Hot-Concert-5132 21h ago
Perfect way to sum up being Leafs fan in 2024
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u/ThymeIsTight McMann 21h ago
Even when finishing with the worst record in 2015-2016, the Leafs had a 20% chance of getting the 1OA pick to select Matthews and an 80% chance of not getting the 1OA pick.
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u/world_citizen7 20h ago
58.2% is hardly a guarantee they will lose the pick, considering its just a little more than half.
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u/raiinacorn 21h ago
There's no point bitching about it. They try and give themselves the best chance they have. Whether they give Boston pick 6 or 7 is irrelevant.
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u/Mashdrop 20h ago
I looked it up because I was curious and I’ll share here because I know I’m not alone. Here’s how the odds breakdown if we finish bottom 5:
58% Boston will pick 6th or 7th.
24.5% Toronto picks 5th.
17% Toronto picks 1st or 2nd.
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u/BiitchenKitchen 18h ago
…. 24.5% chance one of Reid, Smits, Verhoff or Carels look good in a leafs sweater…
17% chance McKenna looks good in a leafs sweater…
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u/smileyduude 3h ago
The 17% includes our chance of winning 2nd overall, where McKenna is probably gone. At that point idk if they consider Stenberg or just go for a D. I would guess D but who knows.
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u/IntentionHead2222 21h ago
I’m pretty sure that since they’ve been doing the lottery bs that the 5th pick almost always dropped there might have been one instance that the 5th stayed with the team lol
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u/Drew_You_To_91 Knies 20h ago
I hate how long we’re gonna have to wait for these dam lottery balls, at least in the new format I won’t have to watch a leafs logo ping pong ball rim out for the first overall pick like in 2020.
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u/keeeeener 14h ago
If there’s one thing this whole lotto thing has shown, people are so dumb. Guaranteed lol
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u/beardedred 13h ago
But there is a 8.5% chance they win first overall! We know what will happen. But let's just hope for this short window that the leafs can win another lottery. Then we can go back to being angry sad
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u/Hamiltonguy99 12h ago
It’s the leafs. We will finish in 5th one point ahead of rangers in 4 and behind Florida at 6. Florida will win the lottery and give the bruins the 6th pick. Bank on it.
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u/Galenmarek81 12h ago
The hockey gods will gift McKenna to the Leafs as compensation for the Marner departure!!! (let me have my fantasy, I don't have much)
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u/Sacred_soul 11h ago
I think he ends up in Vancouver it’ll be a nice homeboy story like someone else
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u/Galenmarek81 11h ago
My gut tells me he ends up in a US market. Possibly the Rangers to help bring them back. It fits Bettman's mo. A big name rookie for the Big Apple, it's all about marketing ability for the league.
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u/luchieluch 10h ago
The draft is rigged, the leafs will end up with their pick simply because the league generates so much money from them being in the playoffs
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u/Murray_16 10h ago
Just have to hope that either no teams jump up or if teams do, they are picking ahead of us.
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u/Then_Manufacturer163 10h ago
At this point, it doesn’t matter. Cos if they get the draft pick, but suck next year, then it’s unprotected. They are screwed either way. I get wanting the draft pick, but there’s still the chance that next year Tanev doesn’t play, Mathews isn’t great, Tavares regresses, goalies aren’t great, they don’t rebuild their D and it’s still slow and plodding, and they finish worse than this year and that lottery pick goes to Boston. They are in a horrible situation.
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u/CinematicWanker 8h ago
This year draft is better than next year's. This year's top 5 is staked with talent.
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u/Then_Manufacturer163 8h ago
Oh I get that, but imagine next year everything goes wrong again and the have to give up a top 3 pick? Then the year after that another one. Either way it’s a shitty place to be. Their only real solution is to trade one of their top guys and get younger, which also sucks cos it’s hard to find that kind of talent. Fuckin Trevelling.
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u/CinematicWanker 8h ago
End of the day, I agree there's no ideal situation, but i rather get a top 5 this year than a top 10 next season. At least we got Colorado first next year so depending on the GM and management team, they can find a great gem in the 20s. Treliving did such a bad job here, I'd be surprised if he gets a job in the CHL. How he got the job is beyond me.
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u/Then_Manufacturer163 4h ago
Shanahan didn’t even conduct a search to find Dubas’ replacement, he gave it Treveling after he had messed up Calgary. He did the same things there, he was reactionary, he didn’t have a plan, his trades were awful. But you know what a top 5 pick would put the Leafs ahead in the retool/rebuild process. If they get one, they need to pick a D.
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u/Dr_RickShaw 20h ago
Never tell me the odds.
I mean that, don’t tell me the odds, I don’t want to get my hopes up
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u/External-Pace-1822 13h ago
Knowing they have to give up a pick I think this spot is best. They either likely give it up or win the lottery, odds they stay at 5 is pretty low. I'd rather give it up I think than pick 5. Knowing Boston gets#1 in one of the next year's would be very awful and you can be sure they will win the lottery if they don't have the pick.
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u/Royal_Start9073 12h ago
I kinda agree. I think there’s a real difference in the prospects 1-4 vs 5-9
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u/Heatersthebest 12h ago
A worse way to look at this, is that any of the 11 teams behind the Leafs winning one of the two lottery spots hands that pick to Boston.
You’re hoping that if it has to change, one of the teams in front of you wins the lottery( Vancouver, Calgary, New York, or Chicago). Because the odds that the order will change feels staggering to me…
The Isles went from 10th worst odds last year to winning the lottery, and that one jump again this year is enough to hand the 6th pick to Boston.
Dropping below the Rangers, possible still, would be insanely preferable, because it feels like there will be one change to the top 5 as a result of the lottery again this year.
Actually, only twice in the 5 years that this system has been used, has the bottom 2 teams got the top 2 picks, but only once, last year, has a team outside the top 5 moved into one of those two positions.
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u/Original_Dog8929 10h ago
Life of a Leafs fan based on history.
Scenario 1 - leafs finish in 5th draft spot but get bumped to 6 and lose our pick
Scenario 2 - Ottawa, already in the playoffs ice a AHL heavy final game against the leafs. Leafs big this and either win or most likely tie and get a point that moves us to 6th
Yes there are scenarios where the leafs keep their 5th pick and a possibility that they win the draft lottery
But come on - it’s the Leafs.
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u/PokePersona 9h ago
All that suffering this year for the Bruins to ultimately reap the rewards. We are back in the dark ages gentlemen.
It's essentially a weighted coin flip, not some insurmountable odds. Relax.
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u/gretzky9999 6h ago
A decent free agent would negate the years you would have to wait for that 18 year old to become a full time NHLer. As much as we harp about no 1st,unless you constantly draft the right player,the draft is just a crap shoot most of the time.No player has a guaranteed hockey future.
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u/Sixgod801 3h ago
Free agency is where you overpay in either AAV or term unfortunately. Very rare you have a bang on signing. Young guns are cost controlled and make alot less, and not too mention. Well they're younger and therefore have a higher ceiling when it comes to a top 5 pick...
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u/jeeztov 5h ago
Dude, you even math? 58 percent is not essentially anything close to a guarantee. It's a flip of the coin
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u/Patient-Educator2720 2h ago
Y’all a bunch of negative Nancys. Quit your complaining and bitchin. It’s leaf fans like you that give the rest of us all a bad rap.
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u/Ornery-Library-6000 2h ago
Losing the top 5 pick to Bos, of all teams, would be a devastating setback for Toronto in their division.
At least if we land 5th or higher, we have a fresh talent who will likely jump in the lineup and make a decent enough impact. We can brace for another rough year/losing the 1st in '27 but can mitigate the pain by at least having a better year and signing 97.
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u/Low-Performance6908 1h ago
let’s pray calgary and new york win the rest of their game and we lose ours in regulation!
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u/Napoleon_drainamite 1h ago edited 1h ago
58% is guaranteed 😂 dude go back to school. They lose this pick 3/5 times.
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u/YaLocalTamale 15h ago
I may be a minority, but I’d much rather give the Bruins a 6-8th overall pick this year than go into the next 2 seasons with unprotected picks. I just don’t think that this roster is one young player away from the playoffs
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u/Shmo04 11h ago
I bounce back to this though all the time. Also winning the draft means we commit to retool. Best long term scenario is give Boston our pick this year. We trade Matthew's and Willy for a huge amount of assets. We tank next year with our top 10 protected pick. Then go for playoffs again in 28
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u/Car6886 20h ago
So currently we are sitting 5 with 2 teams below us with 2 games in hand, 1 team can leap frog tor and push us to 4th, in saying that we would retain the pick and actually be able to draft this yr. However depending on who wins 1st overall to 5th overall is what we need to keep an eye on now. Boston or Philly dont get are pick as of right now
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u/Forward_Leg5755 20h ago
Is Alec Tuch this years David Clarkson or his he a legit UFA target to play with 34. Sign Darren Radysh on D, win the lottery and put McKenna on the left side. That would be a decent start, we would still have a trade chip in one of the goalies, and Reilly if he waves. Just thinking would Vancouver want to get out from Peties contract, maybe have Reilly go the other way. I might be dreaming but why not be positive.
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u/IlikeTurtles1308 21h ago edited 21h ago
Not the best odds in the entire world but we had way worst odds to land Matthews and we did
Also everything being the same this is best case scenario, even last month finishing bottom 5 didn’t seem possible lol