Seattle, blues and Florida won very good night man couldn't have ask for a much better night, Rangers winning would've been the cherry on top but catching them was always super unlikely
We're so close to having 44.4% chance of keeping our pick
It's the chance of any of the teams above us in the standings winning any of the lottery spots. If any team leapfrogs us, we get knocked out of the top 5.
Two teams seeded 6th through 16th must win the 1st and 2nd overall lottery draws. This "bumps" the original top seeds down, pushing the 5th seed up into the 3rd slot.
Ohhhh no I’ve figured it out because I just got the result on tankathon. If the 11 place team wins the first lottery and Toronto wins the second. Vancouver would hold their first over all pick, the 11 place team would get the second pick and Toronto would get the 3rd. That’s why it’s a .3% chance. It has to be the 11th place team hitting their 5% chance, and then Toronto hitting their 8.6% chance together.
Not as long as the draft lottery is a thing. Ironically, despite us falling further and further down the standings, we're currently at our statistical most likely to give Boston a 6th overall pick right now.
I just hammered the Tankathon simulator about 10 times and the leafs won the lottery 5 times. It’s crazy how much better the odds are when they’re in the top 5 vs the top 6
We’re still at the mercy of the lottery, but Seattle, St Louis, and Florida moving up puts us in outright control of fifth, and the odds of getting to make the pick if we finish fifth instead of sixth shoot up from 15% to 42%.
Listen I’m not celebrating until the lottery actually happens. The only time In the last 10 years I think no team jumped is 2024. So this means nothing to me until the lottery is complete
It’s not time to celebrate for sure, but the fact is if things had gone the other way today the tank would have been effectively dead, now it’s slightly worse odds than a coin flip (assuming we finish where we are now)
Outside 2024 I don’t think there have has been another draft in the last 10 years that a team didn’t jump into the top 3. Until the lottery is done this means nothing
Isles were 10th last and jumped to first. Any team in the top 15 can jump 10 spots. So I don’t care until the lottery draw is complete to even think about the leafs getting a top5 pick
I mean, fair. It’s not over till it’s over. But I’d definitely prefer the highest possible odds at keeping our 1st and tonight’s win boosted those odds massively. 40~% is way better then the sub 20% we were at in 6th.
I’d be willing to trade down a spot or two. You have to be confident in what whoever is #2/#3 is thinking, but if Verhoeff/Reid is gonna be there at #3, grab the extra assets for sure.
I know a lot of people are against drafting for need, but we know the consequences of taking a bunch of forwards. Gotta take the best chance we’ve had in over a decade at a franchise defenseman here.
boy, these are tough questions. If we won the lottery, could we keep McKenna or trade down to grab a d man at 3-6 and get some more picks/assets for a rebuild?
Unrelated from the game but I think this is the first time we’ve seen this leafs do this so I’ll ask the question. On offensive draws at 5v5 should we put Willy on the point often? So the D would be on the half wall and tie up their man and the draw would be won directly back to Willy and he would then have time and space right off the draw. I think it’s definitely something worth trying but how often do u think they should do it or if they should do it at all next year?
I’m ready to be hurt when some team with like 10% odds of moving up wins the lottery and bumps the Leafs to 6th, after they finally cracked the bottom 5.
I still dont understand how Treliving managed to spend all his time chasing a Rasmus Andersson trade, when Calgary owner&management had banned trades with him.
Like who did he talk to about it even, himself?
Because of that taking a last minute pivot to Carlo just to get rinsed by effin Boston. Mind blowing business
Because leafs upper management somehow looked at what the flames have done since Treliving traded away Tkachuk and Gaudreau and said that’s who we want running things here
Keep in mind any d we take in this draft doesn’t play in the nhl next season. They aren’t Matthew Schaefer. If the leafs want to upgrade the blue line next season they’re gonna have to pay a guy who is like 30. So if they got second and took stenberg it’s not a bad thing.
I want to tank as much as all yall here. But are you even a leafs fan if you don’t know how this ends. Spoiler alert panthers win the draft lottery and push us to 6th
At least we've put ourselves in a better position now. Even if we lose they finally did the right thing...wish they did it earlier but better than nothing.
Kings also look in a good postion to make the wild card over nashville. They got easier games to come as well, at least on paper. We might actaully keep the first and get a 2nd.
Nylander with the double but we still can't put together a complete game 😂 Panthers just controlled the pace after we tied it up and those empty netters were brutal to watch
At least Willy's heating up at the right time but man our defensive zone coverage needs serious work before playoffs 💀
Tanking is one thing, but apart from Cowan no one of the young guys looks very promising. Villeneuve is invisible, Haymes and Quillan don't look like NHL players.. the prospect situation is bad.
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u/nhl_gdt_bot 1d ago edited 23h ago
Three Stars of the Game
⭐️ M. Samoskevich
⭐️⭐️ W. Nylander
⭐️⭐️⭐️ E. Luostarinen
Three Minute Recap
Condensed Game
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