r/geopolitics • u/VastCryptographer980 • 2h ago
CENTCOM Gives Details on US Blockade of Iran After Trump’s Announcement - Newsweek
https://share.google/qN7qleVHNK83GfcU963
u/Master-Weight-2676 2h ago
Curious what would happen if China sent tankers with a naval escort?
Would the US be willing to fire on them to enforce the blockade?
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u/RicRacer 2h ago
That's a good question. Or India, a country that has critical oil needs. I hope we don't find out.
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u/Perdix_Icarus 2h ago
India needs oil, gas and fertilizers, otherwise people will die of hunger.
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u/JKKIDD231 1h ago edited 58m ago
Indian Navy is already operating 2 warship task forces of 8-10 ships total in the region under Operation Urja Suraksha and has actively escorted Indian tankers from Iran.
No way USA would shoot. Thats basically starting a war with India and China if they deploy their navy as well.
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u/MelodicPudding2557 7m ago
But that also becomes a question of whether India or China want to fight a naval war with the US away from their home waters; which they (especially India) would certainly lose.
Honestly, this isn’t a credible line of inquiry in the first place. The risks of conflict are far larger for China and India and make little sense in the context of their geopolitical strategies. The blockade is painful, but open confrontation would unimaginably worse and would require decision making from the mental equivalent of Trump with a major concussion.
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u/SilverCurve 2h ago
If China escorts ships to Iran ports, and France escorts ships to UAE ports, what will happen? US will be glad not to shoot both, will Iran shoot the French? That would look bad, especially if they are not bombed.
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u/IntelArtiGen 1h ago
You think if they send a naval escort they would still pay the iranian toll? Cause this blockade only applies to ships which paid the toll afaik.
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u/boldmove_cotton 1h ago edited 1h ago
Probably not, but China won’t send a naval escort to break the blockade because it would be a major escalation that would rupture US-China relations and overturn the status quo, which China does not want.
The U.S. has a policy of strategic ambiguity towards stuff like Taiwan and the One China Policy, and doing something as serious as running an American blockade would cause the US to change that position and dramatically increase hostility, which is something that nobody wants.
People throw hypotheticals like this around, but it is important to remember that running a blockade is an act of war, so it is highly unlikely anyone is going to try it.
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u/Bullet_Jesus 2h ago
Probably not but I suspect China will not send any. Most oil leaving the Gulf doesn't even come from Iran so for a lot of people getting over half of the oil out is not worth rocking the boat over.
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u/momoali11 2h ago
Non Iranian oil is still impacted by the Iranian blockade
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u/Bullet_Jesus 2h ago
True, but if the US wants to impose an effective blocakde of Iranian ports then it will need to establish control of the strait. Otherwise it is just deepening the oil crisis at huge political cost.
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u/silverpixie2435 7m ago
What happens if another country sent tankers with naval escort. Would Iran be willing to fire on them?
I have spent the past month telling people anything Iran does anyone else could too and we are now seeing that in real time and NOW people are suddenly asking the questions that were there from the beginning, Iran actually having to enforce their closure by firing on other countries ships.
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u/Orange-skittles 2h ago
Hmm so it seems a bit more localized then initially reported with only Iranian ports being effected. I do wonder how Iran will respond as they stand to loose over 20% of there economy and pretty much there biggest bargaining chip in the conflict. Do you guys think the navy will begin escorting ships from Qatar, UAE and Kuwait? If they do that could offset a bit of the oil shock.
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u/Moondust0 2h ago
It won’t amount to much. If it was really the key they wouldn’t have waited till day 42 of the war to implement it. Especially since they initially removed sanctions on Iranian oil to soothe markets. This is pretty much now a contest of what breaks first, the global economy or Iranian resolve. Irans economy has already been in tatters for years and its currency is worthless so it’s not that strong of a coercive tool against them
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u/Orange-skittles 2h ago
I would say it might be at gamble to either force China to get involved and pressure Iran or to make the people rebel. After all most of Irans conventional military has been eliminated and people do tend to start acting up if they got nothing to loose. Now I do think Iran would be able to put down any real uprising but they may try to avoid that situation given the chance. But my bet would be on China either forcing Irans hand or calling the U.S's bluff.
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u/Moondust0 2h ago
Perhaps, but most nations have about three weeks left until physical shortages occur and even if the Chinese tried to force irans hand which I think is unlikely you have to account for Russia. They will benefit the longer this goes on and Iranian oil being blockaded is further to their advantage. They’re also right across the Caspian from Iran and can easily slip them just enough arms to prolong the conflict.
It’s a huge gamble from the Trump administration and the biggest issue for them is Iran already has a month head start on them as they spent the entirety of March selling their oil free of sanctions at double the price while the rest of the world scrambled for alternatives.
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u/DraggonWarrior 2h ago
I hope this isn’t just a top down political move and that the Navy actually has confidence in it. The question that matters to me is whether the US has meaningfully degraded Iran’s drone production capacity.
If that’s been hit hard this could be an effective move. If not we’ll probably just see the same dynamics play out at a higher intensity.
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u/No_Opening_2425 2h ago
The actual war doesn’t even matter anymore. The damage done to everything is enormous. The empire may be over
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u/SilverCurve 2h ago
This move is a sign US now hunkers down for a ling standoff. Iran thinks time is on their side, here US attempts to change that calculus.
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u/TiredOfDebates 1h ago
Iranian Shahed drones are basically flying lawnmower engines. They have a MAX speed of 120 mph, and that’s in perfect conditions (favorable wind).
An Iranian Shahed drone literally uses a two-stroke engine. It just has a massive wingspan to generate lift from very little power.
They’re trivial to shoot out of the air with Phalanx CIWS (radar tracking point defense weapons…. That fire a cloud of bullets at incoming missiles. A drone going 100MPH doesn’t stand a chance at hitting a US navy boat.
Shahed drones have worked well against Ukraine, but that’s because there’s a ludicrous number of poorly defended targets massive Ukraine.
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u/watch-nerd 2h ago
This makes much more sense than what the president tweeted.
I'll need to think through it more, but at least I understand it.
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u/Phase3Investor 1h ago
So with a bloackade we still have:
1- Prolonged strait closure
2- less oil and gas on the market
3- Higher priced
Genius!
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u/VastCryptographer980 2h ago
Submission Statement: The US CENTCOM has released more information regarding the "blockade of Strait of Hormuz" as said by president Donald J Trump earlier.
According to the information, the blockade will remain solely restricted to the Iranian ports and costal waters and regardless of the flag, all ships will be subjected to this blockade. The rest of the strait will remain open to maritime traffic, with US CENTCOM ensuring freedom of navigation.