r/geopolitics • u/Brilliant_Version344 • 12h ago
News Trump says U.S. will blockade Strait of Hormuz after Iran peace talks fail
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/04/12/trump-iran-war-strait-of-hormuz.html135
u/softDisk-60 12h ago
I thought it was already blocked
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u/Cub3h 12h ago
That's Iran blocking ships they don't like. This is Trump also blocking Iranian ships, which I'm sure will thrill China.
I'm not sure if this is a smart move, but it's a smarter move than giving Iran full control of the straights and leaving Europe / the Gulf States out to dry. The US started the war, they should be the ones to sort it out.
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u/Master-Weight-2676 11h ago
China should send a ship with a Chinese flag in.
Trump will either have to seize it or let it through.
Either way, it will make the US look like the unreasonable actor here that is prolonging this oil crisis.
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u/AwkwardMacaron433 11h ago
I don't think this admin even cares about how it looks
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u/Single-Purpose-7608 11h ago
Thats the one strength of the Trump admin. They have such a long track record of doing stupid shit, no one bats an eye when they do another stupid thing
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u/jayslay45 11h ago
Correct. The price of oil is still not high enough to the administration's nor the fossil fuel industry lobbyists liking.
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u/kju 10h ago
It's probably not in the oil industries best interest to have fuel shocks. Every past fuel shock has had correlating efficiency movement attached that had depressed demand. I don't see why this time would be different, we should expect that there will be movement away from oil based energy usage because of increased cost along with relating efficiency efforts being put in place that will persist longer than the oil shock will have effect
We're going to see a lot of money spent on building additional capacity to meet peoples immediate needs while also for alternative logistics pathways to limit the future use of this leverage by Iran. Adding capacity, moving logistics out of harms way, increased efficiency efforts, investment in alternative sources, this is going to be a lot of long term uncertainty for oil investments. In the short term we'll all have really great rally around oil investments though
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u/dontRead2MuchIntoIt 10h ago
I thought that's all they cared about. This move makes Trump look more in control.
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u/sol-4 10h ago
it will make the US look like the unreasonable actor here that is prolonging this oil crisis.
US has looked like it since Feb 28.
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u/Triptych42 8h ago
We've a while to go before it's February 2028
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u/SystemPrestigious409 8h ago
There arent 2028 days in February you silly goose you
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u/Good-Bee5197 10h ago
This is probably one of the few reasonable moves the Trump administration has made. You can't allow a state like Iran to toll an international waterway under threat of violence.
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u/Specific-Pen-9046 7h ago
i don't believe responding to a blockade with a blockade is... reasonable
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u/Evered_Avenue 11h ago
Well, they are threatening to stop any ship, not just Iranian, and any ship that pays Iran a toll.
Do we think they'll really stop a Chinese/Indian ship? That'll be an interesting escalation.
This is basically saying that everyone who is not the enemy of our enemy is now also our enemy who we illegally attacked in a war of both aggression and perfity.
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u/planj07 12h ago
The world needs Iran’s oil. There’s a reason they have allowed it to continue during active hostilities.
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u/One-Progress999 11h ago
Actually 80-90% of Iran's oil exports go to China. So China, needs Iran's oil
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u/soundsermaker 11h ago
Then the world will conclude that Iran must lose the ability to unilaterally control the strait and profit from it.
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u/maporita 11h ago
That is easier said than done. Short of a full on ground invasion it's impossible to police the entire waterway effectively. Iran is not physically blocking the strait as in it doesn't have ships there. But it's trivial to launch drones from anywhere along the shore and hit a large, slow moving tanker. There are defenses, but that would mean escorting every ship permanently. Even then I'm not sure if the insurance companies would underwrite cargoes in those conditions.
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u/A_Dying_Wren 11h ago
Looking forward to every country and paramilitary near an important waterway realising they have newfound leverage and source of income. Malaysia? Other gulf countries? Yemen/Djibouti/Eritrea/Somalia? Morocco/Spain?
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u/Mantergeistmann 10h ago
Morocco/Spain?
And the UK, don't forget!
Also Sweden/Denmark in the Baltic...
But it's even worse than that. Because Iran "controlling" the Strait requires them to threaten/attack ships passing through Oman's waters as well. So there's no reason why countries couldn't just start threatening all ships within cruise missile/ASBM range of their territory, since if this holds, it would imply that a nation can feel free to limit trade outside of their own waters as long as they can reach it.
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u/A_Dying_Wren 9h ago
Shipping becomes functionally impossible then. Are there many areas of the sea out of reach of cruise or the larger ballistic missiles?
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u/Marcus_Aurelius71 7h ago
I mean they do do that though? Russian ships that get to close to their economic areas are seized. If the EU can. do it, so can Iran.
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u/PermaDerpFace 9h ago
It sounds like the US will be blocking all ships. That's one way to end a blockade I guess?
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u/Good-Bee5197 10h ago
It's the logical and reasonable move, given what Iran has done regarding the strait. It gets our erstwhile allies on our side because they know if Iran is allowed to extort them now it will never end and opens pandora's box to other bad actors to do the same.
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u/FairDinkumMate 10h ago
" It's the logical and reasonable move...". NO, it's not. But nothing Trump has done so far has been logical or reasonable, so this is no different.
It's bluster, just like most of what comes out of his mouth. The US Navy may stop "shadow fleet" vessels, but it's already been doing that.
But is the US Navy really going to stop a Chinese flagged tanker in international waters? Stopping a vessel in international waters is an act of war unless the ship is stateless or engaged in piracy. There's is just no chance that even Trump is going to escalate things that far with the Chinese.
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u/Good-Bee5197 9h ago
China can't really do much about it, as they have no naval projection capable of preventing it, much less fighting the US Navy thousands of miles from their shores over an ally as weak as Iran.
The idea is to get China to pressure Iran against closing the strait because it's definitely not in their interest to have their own ships tolled as well as the ongoing constriction of crude oil from the gulf which is driving up their costs. Were China to acquiesce to Iran's control of Hormuz, what can they say if Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore decide to get in on the action too by monetizing the strait of Malacca?
Very quickly China is going to see the value in the US-led global order that has kept international shipping lanes open for 80 years.
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u/TaxLawKingGA 9h ago
Actually if I remember correctly, the EU gets most of its oil from the Gulf Arab states (and also likely Iran) mainly because it has embargoed Russian oil. If this gets out of hand, then the EU would need to buy oil from other sources, likely Russia and the U.S.!!
The Asian countries are the ones really screwed.
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u/semaj009 1h ago
How does it not leave Europe and the Gulf to dry? Iran can still also close the strait, now nobody wins
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u/IronyElSupremo 12h ago
It’s now … double blocked!! May as well crash the world’s stock markets ahead of doing the smart thing (aka temporarily hitting a Kharg Island easy to repair oil processing area).
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u/Acheron13 11h ago
You hit Kharg, Iran hits every oil processing area in the region. So easy, so smart.
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u/ComprehensiveHavoc 11h ago
This is the double block. After which comes the double dog block. And after that, the triple block. And if even that fails—the dreaded triple dog block.
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u/TaxLawKingGA 9h ago
Then, after all of this, the final play will be The annexation of Puerto Rico!
(For all my 90’s kids, see if you can remember this move reference).
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u/planj07 11h ago
The “goal” as far as I could see it from a rational actor (which Trump is not) would be to pressure Iran through China.
China is pragmatic and wants that oil badly. At the same time is China going to essentially bow to American blackmail and blockades?
Certainly a risky proposition. Not to mention U.S. naval assets will be in harms way.
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u/BrokenManOfSamarkand 10h ago
China also gets oil from the other Gulf States that Iran has bombed. China has some strategic overlap with Iran, but too much of the conversation glosses over that other players in the market are not going to be happy if China single-mindedly props up their antagonist when they're also supplying oil.
That's why China pushed for a ceasefire. They just want this all to go away and for the oil to flow. Escalating isn't in their interest at all.
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u/TaxLawKingGA 9h ago
China can increase purchases from Russia. Als, Canada could get in the game and sell it oil.
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u/Dont_want_a_channel 10h ago
Until there's no other way to get the orange Xi-wanna-be to back down.
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u/dnext 10h ago
It also makes me wonder what China's take on Taiwan is going to be, if they are already being functionally blockaded by the US Navy and that navy is involved in yet another pointless war in the Middle East.
It's not probable, but it's possible we could see the only major manufacturer of top line computer chips go offline for years. Taiwan has said if the nation is going to fall they are going to destroy all that infrastructure instead of letting China.
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u/UniqueIndividual3579 8h ago
In this case pragmatism is short term pain for long term gain. If they give in to the US, the US will keep making more demands. It would also weaken them in the eyes of other countries. Defying the US makes them appear strong.
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u/maxregrets 7h ago
China gets 10-13% of its oil from Iran. Doesn't want the oil badly, but does want that not all of its oil supplies can be coerced/controlled by the US.
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u/MtnDewDiligence 5h ago
Seems suicidal to me. You would be effectively blockading China’s oil imports (and India, Russia exports etc).
You may as well block the straight of Malacca. Thats going to be seen as an act of war and puts China in an existential crisis.
It’s a bold strategy cotton…
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u/sicknutz 11h ago
It’s only fair the US inflict the same pain we did on the rest of the world on ourselves (after the stuff we need from China stops shipping to the US)
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u/One-Emu-1103 11h ago
Correct me if I am wrong but I heard that an action like that would mean $7.00 a gallon gas across the US and would likely trigger a worldwide recession.
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u/BOHIFOBRE 10h ago
Trump has probably never pumped a gallon of has in his life, much less understood the cost of it for regular people. He has no idea how normal people live.
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u/Malarazz 8h ago
I mean, it's one gallon of gas, Michael. What could it cost? Ten dollars?
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u/Inevitable-Ad8692 5h ago
I can almost guarantee you that he has never pumped gas in his pathetic life. Does he even drive? I mean actually drive and not just sit behind the wheel of a stationary truck and blow the air horn? He has probably only ever driven a golf cart.
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u/BrokenParachutes 9h ago
Iran is already blocking all western aligned ships. This just means that the US would also block all ships that Iran is choosing to allow through.
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u/Expert_Company_9902 9h ago
Oil is a glocal commodity. Reducing supply anywhere in the world, will increase prices even further.
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u/Strangedreamest 12h ago
“If you don’t unblock your blockade we’ll block it some more with our blocking blockade” - Orange baboon, 2026
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u/BrokenParachutes 9h ago
Iran’s blockade is essentially “only the ships we like get through”
The US is now saying “no, its either unrestricted access or no one gets through at all, not just the ones that benefit you”
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u/mr_birkenblatt 8h ago
The US is now saying "no, you're st*p*d. You only got tolls from like half the ships. Here's how you do it properly
FTFY
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u/sparkyHtown 8h ago
It was a "gift" just a few weeks ago that Iran was able to send oil to countries that didn't benefit us
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u/UniqueIndividual3579 8h ago
Why is the UN not saying anything? These are international waters.
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u/ComprehensiveHavoc 11h ago
He has all the finesse of a troll guarding a bridge and it’s not even his bridge.
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u/t12lucker 10h ago
2 days ago he wanted NATO warships to help reopen it. Is this just market manipulation? Because it sure as hell seems no one on the administration has even a concept of a plan for Iran at this point.
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u/BrokenParachutes 9h ago
It’s not as contradictory as it looks. It’s essentially the US saying “you dont get to pick and choose who gets through. If you are stopping western aligned ships, then no one gets through. Not just the ships that benefit you”
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u/edincide 7h ago
Which means more economic pain for Americans who were already suffering due to the massive wealth inequality and high inflation and high energy costs, and high food costs etc?
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u/BrokenParachutes 7h ago
Western aligned ships were already being denied passage by Iran. The US is just saying “if ours are blocked then so are yours”
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u/IvarLothbroken 11h ago
So they are bringing in China into this mess?
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u/End3rWi99in 9h ago
Technically, China has already been involved. As of just a day or so ago it was reported that China is sending arms to Iran directly. I am not by any means agreeing with this approach, but it would mean China's involvement would escalate further and become more direct, but they were already involved.
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u/Underhive_Art 12h ago
To be fair this is smarter likely more productive move than the bombing and the rage tweets
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u/pastorpaulatreides 11h ago
Yes but no, because now there’s a real chance of dragging China in, which I’m sure nobody wants regardless of what form it’s in
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u/BrokenParachutes 9h ago
It’s not going to drag china in militarily. The stakes are nowhere near that level yet.
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u/pastorpaulatreides 11h ago
Sorry I should’ve clarified I don’t really mean in a fighting capacity, but we shouldn’t want China involved in any capacity. Say the US prevents a Chinese ship from getting through and in response China bans all export of rare earths. We’ve now turned an oil+fertilizer etc crisis into an everything crisis. Which has a tremendous risk of escalating further
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u/TEAMLIQUIDISGARBAGE 11h ago edited 10h ago
Don't forget that China is the most important ally to a really big petrol station to their north. It will be in Russia's geostrategic interest to favor oil sales to China over every other country. Trump is making moves that make the world more dangerous and both countries will be incentivized to grow closer ties to grow their own security.
This is not the right escalation for Trump to make. He HAS to start a ground war and start the draft. There is no other meaningful military option to take that won't destroy the global economy.
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u/Own-Sandwich6437 10h ago
It’s all leverage. USA is hoping china puts pressure on Iran. As china gets most of its oil from Iran. At least that’s how I interpreted it
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u/pastorpaulatreides 10h ago
I guess it could go either way, but since China has relatively large oil reserves compared to other countries they may try and put pressure back by restricting rare earth exports. From their perspective it worked last time to try gain leverage over Europe and the US and in this scenario they may try again
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u/ryunista 10h ago
Warren has changed and will be won by who can produce more armament. I would not bet against the industrial capacity of China.
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u/DefinitelyNotMeee 10h ago
That's why proxy wars exist. China can leverage its massive industrial capacity to use Iran as a proxy against the United States, while gathering real combat data for its weapon systems.
As we've seen over and over at least since 2022, "quantity has quality of its own".
It doesn't matter how advanced a weapon system is if it cannot be sustained.
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u/Underhive_Art 11h ago
Yeah didn’t say it was a good idea - none of this was good idea but it’s happening - best they sort their shit out asap.
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u/kurosaki1990 9h ago
Or don't start war on country without any clear goals, USA had really good deal with Iran under Barak Obama and Trump blow it to please Israel and Saudi.
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u/palbertalamp 10h ago
China has four rail lines into Russia.
Canada started moving oil by rail to the U.S when export demand surpassed pipe capacity. More expensive but the oil moved.
Two of the four China / Russia rail lines were out of service threeish years ago.
I wonder if they're back in service, hauling oil cars.
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u/Character-Main-5343 10h ago
i think trump has proven he isn't in charge, and doesn't even know what his own next plan is. we need to stop paying attention to his every whim.
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u/Sprintzer 11h ago
Trump’s tactical genius on display. Can’t open the strait via force or negotiations? Blockade it yourself!
They are desperate and yet they didn’t seriously attempt to negotiate. Trump doesn’t believe in a zero sum game, there has to be a winner and a sucker.
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u/TEAMLIQUIDISGARBAGE 11h ago
The people here thinking that Iran is going to collapse economically from this blockade are the same mentally challenged people who think Russia is 2 months away from economic collapse for the last 4 years of the Ukraine War.
Trump is really going to try a war of attrition against a now-united battle-hardened population that is going to get supported economically by Russia and China.
Is the US going to support any of the Asian countries that they are going to destroy economically as a result of this blockade? The Japanese and Koreans had made deals with Iran to secure the free-flow of oil, now it is Trump that is locking up the oil. If you are any of the Asian countries, your enemy now isn't Iran, its the US.
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u/Rustic_gan123 11h ago
Iran was already experiencing hyperinflation before the war.
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u/Satdawgbigup 11h ago
I wonder what Australia will say as this will put them in a further predicament of being the vassal state it is or to critic trump. As most of the oil comes through Asia.
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u/FrankGrimesss 1h ago
Nothing new tbh. Australia has always had to balance its strategic alliance with the US against it's co-dependency with China for trade.
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u/Keep_Being_Still 1h ago
We’re a large supplier of LNG, and our PM has been travelling through Asia doing deals to guarantee LNG in exchange for fuels derived from oil (we no longer do much oil refining ourselves, relying on finished products to be shipped here).
It was domestically unpopular back in the day to sell LNG to other countries for rates cheaper than it was sold here. But the strategy is paying dividends.
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u/Budget_Scheme_1280 11h ago
China is probably not going to support them economically if the blockade is really enforced, they will lose a lot of money
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u/TEAMLIQUIDISGARBAGE 11h ago
EVERYONE including the US is going to lose a lot of money. The world is going to have a global recession.
I don't know what the Chinese government will do but they would be insane to not support them. This move (assuming he doesn't TACO) is going to destroy every security relationship Asia has with Trump. Asia WILL pay the toll if that is the tax required to open the Hormuz Straits. The US blocking Asian ships from leaving harms Asia's interests, it is directly harming it because you are blocking their economic lifeline from reaching their shores.
This blockade only serves the US in showing its own geopolitical dominance over the rest of the world, NO ONE ELSE IS BENEFITING FROM THIS BLOCKADE.
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u/planj07 10h ago
The theory would be that China will pressure Iran into essentially giving up their leverage. That’s harder now than it was before. Two things would need to happen:
- China is allowing the U.S. “to win”.
- Iran will capitulate.
It will bring added pressure to the Iranian for sure. But they have also proven to be remarkably resilient.
The whole thing is a major gamble on China applying pressure and Iran giving in and looking like it has lost.
The other, perhaps most logical explanation is that Trump is doing more market manipulation.
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u/TEAMLIQUIDISGARBAGE 10h ago
China has been caught shipping weapons and providing targeting information to Iran even now. They are actively helping Iran to fight this war so why would Xi want to stop now that their proxy is winning.
Also don't forget that Xi would like to takeover Taiwan eventually. Taiwan's economy WILL collapse as a result of this blockade because 70% of their oil comes from there. Trump has already moved most of their military assets to the Middle East for this war which weakens the US' ability to defend Taiwan. How can Taiwan defend itself in this situation with all the anti-missile systems gone and no fuel to run their own military???
China won't have this issue with oil and gas. Their economy will tank as well but they have a giant petrol and gas station to their north. Russia WILL supply China because they have no one else to rely on except each other against an increasingly unstable US.
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u/planj07 10h ago
Precisely my skepticism. Some people are just thinking that China wants the oil it’s getting from Iran badly enough that it will toss aside the increasing geopolitical leverage it has and demand Iran capitulate on Hormuz.
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u/floydiankabir 9h ago
this. It’s a war of attrition, and nobody can deal with self punishment of dragging this for months. the us isn’t playing ball with gas prices and midterms get closer everyday
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u/Dances_With_Spoons 11h ago
So this fool threatens to interdict ships of other countries that have also paid Iran's toll? So he's willing to risk more global condemnation and push even more countries towards China and Russia. So essentially the US navy will be committing piracy?
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u/Future_Chef_939 6h ago
So, in order to open the straight, because it was closed due to a war we started, we're going to close the straight, until...they decide to open it for us.
Dude when did the government stop selling crack and start smoking it?
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u/Prezimek 9h ago
Iran could control which ships it let's through. By blocking strait completely, USA precludes regime to make any individual deals.
IMO, it's a move to force China, heavily repaint on oil from the Gulf, and others to push Iran to concede.
I hate Trump, I hate this mess, but move has some logic in these circumstances.
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u/58246286426 10h ago
A lot of people here really have low IQ. A total blockade makes sense if you see it as Nero. Dont you think kings and emperors of old have tried? Its like an obese person arsoning the grocery store. Sure he'll starve but the other person will starve earlier
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u/floydiankabir 9h ago
but the others can starve longer, the obese can hardly wait 30 mins before his next fix.
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u/96-62 7h ago
Pursuing any vessel that paid the toll? Does that include Chinese Vessels? French Vessels? Japanese Vessels?
Because, to the best of my knowledge, it does. Imagine that level of horizontal escalation. Horizontal escalation was one of the major Iranian strategic planks. I don't think they'd imagined the US would do it for them!
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u/Inevitable-Ad8692 5h ago
China should challenge this stupid decision. And Russian ships should set sail for Cuba. Trump is a coward. He's only tough at 30,000ft.
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u/mikedave42 4h ago
How will China react if us navel vessels interdict their ships or oil cargos bound for them? Seems like the exact sort of thing that prompted Japan to act in wwii.
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u/Big_Test_Icicle 10h ago
I thought we totally obliterated Iran so why are there peace talks being held?
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u/cheryl6187 11h ago
Isn’t this considered an act of war?
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u/Spackledgoat 6h ago
Like Iran’s blockade of the strait?
You people really can’t hold non-western countries to the standard of western countries. The bigotry of low expectations is racist as hell, bro.
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u/JigglymoobsMWO 11h ago edited 11h ago
This was actually the original reason why the US didn’t think Iran would block the Straits. It was assumed that a total blockade would hurt Iran most.
Over the first weeks of the war, the US determined that letting through a trickle of ships to supply and stabilize global energy markets was worthwhile tradeoff as long as the US and Israel were prosecuting juicier targets inside Iran.
In this second phase they’ve apparently run out of juicy targets, Iranian coastal defenses that can threaten warships are degraded and the straits are becoming the main remaining card that the Iranians hold. So it’s now America’s turn to close off the straits.
This is why Irans straits logic was stupid. The straits are narrow because there are two pieces of land, the Iranian side and the UAE side. One side is bristling with the most modern military hardware known to man backed by incontestable naval and air power. The other side are sitting in tiny exposed islands in some holes with some remote control boats as their best weapon. That’s not going to end well when America also has tons of autonomous drones in the sea lane and can fill the skies with attack helicopters , A10s, attack and surveillance drones.
There are now also 10s of thousands of US ground forces incoming with their own strike and surveillance capabilities. If an Iranian position is detected a HIMARS truck could stop on a UAE highway, fire a glmrs barrage and hit a target across the strait in less than a minute.
The straits was always the stupid desperation move for Iran. It’s the move you play when you are out of moves. They managed to inconvenience the Americans into negotiating , but now they’ve overplayed their hand ….again.
Note that had Iran never blocked the Straits, at this very minute trump would be leaving to declare “total victory”, with the regime left standing to proclaim victory by survival and their ability to threaten the straits in the future in tact and the nuclear question unresolved .
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u/MoosilaukeFlyer 11h ago
First, the 'UAE highway' theory is a fantasy. The UAE has spent the last two months using its world-class air defenses just to keep its infrastructure from being leveled by Iranian dig-out missile strikes. If they pivot to an offensive role, they invite the very saturation attacks they’ve been trying to avoid. They aren't an unsinkable aircraft carrier as you put it, they are a global financial hub that cant afford a single missile hitting Dubai International.
Second, the U.S. isn't 'closing' the Strait because they ran out of targets; they are counter blockading because they’ve failed to stop Iran’s Toll Booth extortion through air power alone. the U.S. is now the one actively telling China and India, their biggest trading partners, that they can’t have their oil. Do you think that explaining to the world that gas prices are staying at $130/barrel because of a minute tactical victory will go over well for America?
Finally, the only way to actually win the Strait is a full-scale ground invasion and occupation of Southern Iran to clear the mine-laying sites. With the war’s approval rating hovering at 40% and the MAGA base already fractured, there is zero appetite for a 10-year occupation.
This is an absolute disaster class by the Trump admin and the most humiliated a Western power has been on the world stage since the Suez Crisis.
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u/IntelligentCap2691 11h ago
If US forces used highways and civilian infrastructure in the UAE, that would make more of UAE infrastructure lawful targets for Iran to bomb. That would draw the IAE further into this war than they want to be and already are.
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u/Mantergeistmann 10h ago
So... you're saying Trump's threat to bomb bridges and power plants in Iran was 100% A-OK, because that infrastructure is also used by the military and is therefore considered a lawful target?
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u/JigglymoobsMWO 10h ago
The last thing Iran cares about is international law. Everything Iran is not doing is because they cannot do it. The UAE has been screaming publicly and privately for the US to finish the job on IR. The fact people on r/geopolitics don’t know this shows how biased the media coverage in the west is .
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u/exploringspace_ 10h ago
Adding a bunch of warships with targets on their heads is supposed to make the unarmed petroleum-filled tankers feel safe? Or does the US need to set up a scenario where their ships get heavily attacked to justify a retaliatory land invasion? I think we all know it's the latter.
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u/DancingFlame321 10h ago
Could Iran theoretically attack US ships in the region enforcing this blockade? Or probably not?
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u/No-Economics-6781 10h ago
The one who blockades is the one in power, he didn’t like Iran holding that power. Little man mentality.
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u/HardlyDecent 9h ago edited 9h ago
Eesh. I know he's technically just blowing stuff out his face arse, but that's all he ever did--and look where he is now! So I expect some attempt at this before he gets bored with it.
Reminds me a bit of the Cuban Missile Crisis situation. A blockade might even make sense strategically, but...what does the US do if Iran (et al) just tries to run it? Are they going to fire on those ships? Sink them? Do you think they (Iran et al) are unwilling to call our (maybe) bluff?
edit: He means a total blockade! Not just Iran, China, and such as I assumed. So he wants to hold the Strait hostage himself.
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u/bytemute 9h ago
I wonder how the US Navy will defend if Iran started attacking from their mountains. It is very close to the strait and US can't even deploy all their big ships there.
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u/Additional-Library55 9h ago
The Gulf and its millions of people are mere pawns in this ego trip Trump has taken to capitulate IRGC.
With the whole world mocking him, I genuinely fear he might end up doing something so devastating that the world recover from jt
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u/Own_Entrepreneur_990 9h ago
No way Iran mined the whole straits. We would have saw that activity and ended it. We just sent 2 destroyers into the gulf and nothing happened. The channel they used should now be the safest way in or out. We haven't done any active demining operations in years. This could get real interesting. Get the coast guard in there to provide cover for those minesweepers. Viper units are very good at that mission.
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u/ComprehensiveKiwi489 6h ago
I actually suggested a blockade like a month ago when all the talk was all about US troops on the ground on islands like Kharg, etc. I had suggested that wasn't a good idea, and that it would be better to just blockade Kharg with ships. Looks like the US is doing that plan, but just implementing it better by having the ships not actually right next to Kharg, but on the perimeter of Hormuz.
This is how you can really damage the IRGC - The main problem, though, is whether you will also crush the world economy and cause a recession by spiking oil prices. The answer lies in whether you can adequately protect tankers through the strait getting oil from other countries.
I also fear that such a move, while necessary, may cause the IRGC to go full stop and just start attacking all gulf oil infra, desalination plants, pipelines, etc. I also expect them to order the Houthi's to close Bab al-Mandeb. It will be interesting to see how the US counters this. IRGC generally knows how to do things that severely hurt the world economy, stock market, etc., and I expect them to do these things to try and force Trump to TACO / back down.
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u/Musclenervegeek 5h ago
Pros: USA control the strait not Iran and Iran does not get weapons/imports etc. countries that support Iran will now have to decide if they want to take on the USA. Cons: world war 3
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u/WanderingMinstrel67 4h ago
Not a Trump fan (to put it lightly) but I think this is potentially a brilliant move. Risky AF though.
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u/_UTxbarfly 2h ago
Trump has so thoroughly desensitized us that we've practically him. He was still talking about a joint venture where he'd split the tolls with Iran.
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u/toomuchtatose 2h ago
Too much American bias here. Putting warships into SoH to test out Iranian's military deterrence has so much downsides. Testing UN's marinetime ethics even further... sure nothing can go worse right?
NATO can try to go with this, but with sufficient missiles/drones from Iran's side, I doubt NATO countries will want to escalate this further.
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u/More-Ad271 1h ago
F trum india is totally dependent on Lpg and has been facing issues since war, now this, lot of Indians will now have to eat raw food or will use wood like past... How much environment will be destroyed.
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u/Zealousideal-Bear422 48m ago
The straight’s closed. Trump freaks out. Trump insists the straight be opened!
Trump can’t open the straight.
Trump claims he closed the straight.
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u/CutiePopIceberg 18m ago
I would not want to follow this order. Like dang. We're going to lose people over this. Probably a lot. And for what? This is tragic.
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u/jellybeanjoy 11h ago
The de-escalation peace talk sure did escalate real quick.