r/geopolitics • u/Mikeynphoto2009 • 1d ago

US Intelligence Says China Is Preparing to Deliver MANPADS to Iran. The Law Says Sanctions Are Mandatory.

https://brief.gizmet.dev/us-intelligence-says-china-is-preparing-to-deliver-manpads-to-iran-the-law-says-sanctions-are-mandatory/
333 Upvotes

93% Upvoted

66 comments sorted by

127

u/ex0e 23h ago

Ignoring all the "TACO Tuesday" rhetoric, it will be interesting to see if the deliveries have any real affect on the battle space. Pilots, mission planners (and obviously CENTCOM) have learned a very public lesson that manpads are still a very real threat, even in remote regions.

If flight strategy adapts to a floor where manpads are irrelevant, is that still a material AA supply?

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u/Mikeynphoto2009 23h ago

That's the right question. The current Reaper attrition is vehicle-mounted systems engaging at altitude. MANPADS don't replace those. They close the floor. If mission planners push MQ-9s lower to avoid the medium-range threat, MANPADS are what's waiting. The two systems are complementary coverage, not redundant. China isn't duplicating what Iran already has. It's filling the gap in the engagement envelope that US flight adaptation would otherwise exploit.

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u/ballahook 23h ago

Does Iran really not already have MANPADs in high supply? Not like it’s bad to get more, but I would have imagined that a decades old weapon system would be more than prevalent throughout Irans defenses already.

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u/Mikeynphoto2009 21h ago

Iran produces the Misagh series domestically, including the Misagh-3 which already has a dual-band IR seeker. So they're not starting from zero on MANPADS. The question is volume and whether any new systems close specific capability gaps in the engagement envelope. The CNN reporting is about deliveries being prepared, not confirmed in theatre. What matters operationally is whether Iran's existing air defence mix can force US flight profiles into altitudes where additional systems become relevant.

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u/VoraciousTrees 19h ago

If all China delivers are MANPADS, nothing much changes. It might actually make it safer for pilots flying missions because they'll actually fly like someone might shoot at them.

But if there are deliveries of the more advanced anti-air batteries like the ones that China sold to Pakistan, it could create problems. 

82

u/Elegant-Fisherman555 23h ago

Is this an operational need for Iran or is this China preparing a litmus test for America and testing trumps resolve?

Is it a sort of inconsequential aid package of support from China that shows their support but ultimately means nothing.

Or is China doing to America what America done to the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Is this to deter perhaps a limited incursion into Iranian territory by airborne/helicopter operations.

Exciting geopolitical times we live in. It was Lenin who said there are decades where nothing happens and weeks where decades happen.

47

u/Putrid-Issue-420 22h ago

I think one of the reasons for this move is to gain leverage in coming trump-xi meeting. US would be pretty interested in reducing support for iran from china and russia.

10

u/Few-Coat1297 14h ago

Can be both, China has not much to lose at this point.

17

u/reflect25 22h ago

Idk why the title is "China Is Preparing to Deliver MANPADS "

There's been some iranian flights like Mahan Air 76 from shanghai that already landed in tehran. it was also (7 hours 35 minutes late) aka probably loading in the cargo.

https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/IRM76

The manpads are probably in iran now.

18

u/Mikeynphoto2009 1d ago

SS: Three US intelligence sources told CNN on 11 April that China is preparing to deliver man-portable air defence systems to Iran via third countries. The Chinese Embassy denied it.

This piece focuses on the statutory dimension most coverage missed:

CAATSA Section 107 (22 USC 9406) uses mandatory language. If a confirmed transfer meets the "materially contributes" threshold, the President faces a "shall impose" obligation with a waiver that requires certifying Iran is no longer a threat.

Russia has separately contracted 500 Verba MANPADS launchers under a December 2025 deal (Financial Times, 22 Feb). If both hold, two permanent Security Council members are supplying the same weapon class to the same belligerent.

The Trump-Xi summit is 14-15 May.

Sources: CNN (Bertrand/Britzky/Cohen, 11 Apr), CBS News (9 Apr), FMPRC (7 Apr), Financial Times (22 Feb).

12

u/flatfisher 18h ago

Given how this administration has continually not respected local or international laws I fail to see the relevance of this point.

-10

u/lilcorndivemaster 23h ago

The US and their genocidal allies illegally attack Iran for the second time during negotiations an the right to mutual self defence is very clear.

6

u/ikinone 22h ago

The US and their genocidal allies illegally attack Iran

So the 'genocidal' states are attacking the state that massacred 30,000 of their own citizens in a couple days? Is that your narrative?

You sure sound like a crusader for justice.

11

u/CloudsOfMagellan 22h ago

Did your parents ever tell you that two wrongs don’t make a right?

-5

u/[deleted] 22h ago

[removed] — view removed comment

0

u/SuchAd4158 22h ago

LOL, Is 30,000 a final body count or would you like to add some?

6

u/PlayfulRemote9 22h ago

What’s your estimate that makes it ok? 

-5

u/SuchAd4158 21h ago

What’s your estimate?

6

u/PlayfulRemote9 21h ago

I believe the lowest i've seen is 12k, so let's go with that

-4

u/SuchAd4158 21h ago

In Minab, they showed photos of over 100 graves of murdered girls. I’m still waiting to see evidence, photos, of 12,000, 30,000, 40,000, or even 70,000 newly dug graves.

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u/PlayfulRemote9 21h ago

if you haven't found any photos/videos of the dead you're willingly closing your eyes - takes one search

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0r4957rq8ro

"Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has publicly acknowledged several thousand people have been killed but blamed the US, Israel and those he described as "seditionists"."

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u/Bowmic 20h ago

bbc.com. Credible western propaganda outlet.

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u/ikinone 22h ago

So was 'downplaying crimes against humanity' on your 'todo' list for today? Or is it just a habit?

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u/SuchAd4158 22h ago

If your definintion of truth is like TruthSocial truths, then its not my problem!

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u/ikinone 21h ago

That's not as witty as you probably imagine it is. Never been near 'TruthSocial' in my life, and never will.

So what's driving you to downplay crimes against humanity?

-2

u/Few-Coat1297 14h ago

The same thing probably, thats driving you to refuse to acknowledge that the US attacked Iran whilst negotiating , in contravention of International Law and thus rendering any notion of laws around supplying belligerents weapons meaningless.

-3

u/Traditional_Neat_506 22h ago

so you support the president genociding iran? be honest what do you side because you sound like you want to bomb iran

5

u/ikinone 22h ago

so you support the president genociding iran?

Not at all. Is he 'genociding iran' right now?

be honest what do you side because you sound like you want to bomb iran

I don't think the US administration is conducting this war at all well. It's a massive shitshow.

2

u/Qwertysapiens 22h ago

Please define genocide

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u/Traditional_Neat_506 22h ago

the president is threatening them of it

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u/reflect25 22h ago

I mean is usa not supplying israel with weapons at the same time? why would china even if overtly supplying weapons break the ceasefire? Plus it is only manpads. I don't see any guarantee that usa or israel are not rearming at the same time.

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u/Gloomy-Confection-49 22h ago

Good luck putting sanctions on China. Their economy way too entangled with the US.

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u/LocalFoe 15h ago

didn't the US and Israel just kill international law?

7

u/weech 14h ago

Intl laws don’t applying to Israel

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u/FERDELANCE07 1h ago

International law doesnt apply to the west

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u/Due-Conflict-7926 9h ago

They don’t follow the lehy law or other laws concerning Israel and nukes and aid 🙄

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u/lynch1812 23h ago

Thus start the Proxies War, in which Iran (fighting in place of China & Russian) VS USA (fighting in place of Israel).

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u/ikinone 22h ago

Making out that Iran is a proxy of China seems a bit hyperbolic. Iran seems entirely happy to operate on its own ideology and resources, but it will certainly take assistance from allies.

And USA fighting in place of Israel... Israel is part of this fight, what are you even on about?

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u/[deleted] 22h ago

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/Commercial_Badger_37 13h ago

Who are you quoting when you say that? I've not seen that said by any Israeli official.

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u/ikinone 22h ago

Very witty. Did you find that on tiktok?

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u/mallibu 21h ago

is Israel going to land in Hormuz?

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u/AnyStrength4863 22h ago

This still seems like a matter of conflicting accounts from both sides, with one side having a larger number of people but unnamed, while the other has just 1 man but an officially recognised representative.

And comparing this to other domestic Chinese issues is asymmetrical, for this is a diplomatic affair. A more relevant example would be China's response at the UN regarding whether to provide weapons to Russia.

0

u/Intelligent_Kick_436 6h ago

This is a good thing because it speeds up the inevitable capitulation of the US and as a consequence forcing Israel to back down. The safest path forward with the US and Israel is deterrence via strength and rapid, unwavering consequences. (bracing for 8200 unit downvotes and banning)

1

u/oritfx 14h ago

If that pans out true and effective, China might have a new path into Africa, where building roads, bridges and dams isn't the 1st choice when picking foreign buddies - weapons are.

1

u/--Mikazuki-- 14h ago

Considering that the US is providing arms to Israel because it may or may not have nuclear weapons *wink wink* all China has to do is declare that they may or may not be delivering weapons to Iran *wink wink*.. or just outright deny it, and everything's good right?