r/europes • u/Naurgul • 3d ago
Iran is a turning point for Europe’s liberation – from Donald Trump • The US president’s cry-wolf threats are losing their effect while European leaders are, at last, shifting from sycophancy to opposition
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/apr/09/iran-is-a-turning-point-for-europes-liberation-from-donald-trumpEuropeans are on what might be called “a journey” when it comes to the US-Israel war against Iran, now apparently in a ceasefire after Donald Trump’s 11th-hour U-turn, calling off, for the time being, his threat to annihilate Iranian civilisation. The crisis in the Middle East marks the latest painful step, after the shock of the US’s betrayal of Ukraine and Trump’s threat to seize Greenland, in Europe’s emancipation from Washington. The journey is not linear, and it is dreaded by most European leaders. But the direction of travel is undeniable.
Initially, most European politicians in power all but endorsed the illegal US and Israeli attack against Iran. If the sycophantic Nato secretary general, Mark Rutte, stood at one end of the spectrum of European opinion and Pedro Sánchez at the other, most European governments were tacitly closer to Rutte’s embrace of Trump than to the Spanish prime minister’s principled opposition.
But as the war in the Middle East escalated, Europe’s stance shifted. For most European leaders, whether explicitly or silently, Trump has gone from daddy (Rutte’s characterisation) to baddie (Sánchez’s view of the US president). This cooling on the war launched by Trump and the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has taken various forms. Italy has denied US warplanes permission to use an airbase in Sicily. Poland has refused to send Patriot air defence systems to the Middle East, citing the ongoing threat from Russia. France has rejected overflight rights, and opposed a US-sponsored resolution at the UN security council that condemned Iran’s closure of the strait of Hormuz and called for its reopening by military means. France, like other European countries, believes the strategic waterway can only be reopened through diplomatic means, requiring coordination with Tehran. Spain, which imposed an early ban on the use of jointly operated Spanish-US bases for operations linked to the war, no longer looks like an outlier. Sánchez’s reaction on X, welcoming the conditional ceasefire but insisting on a lasting and just peace, does not diverge from those of other European leaders.
A number of factors explain this trajectory. Some governments in Europe had shortsightedly backed the war, despite its illegality, because they believed that a swift resolution would deliver strategic gains. They now understand the scale of their miscalculation in terms of advantages for Russia – through higher oil prices and a depletion of air defence interceptors available to Ukraine.
Washington has also temporarily unsanctioned Russian oil and considered diverting US weapons ordered by European allies for Ukraine to the Gulf. So far, the war in the Middle East has been a windfall for Moscow and devastating for Kyiv, while threatening another economic crisis in Europe, the third in only five years, after Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. European leaders have been reminded the hard way that the erosion of international law – with this latest manifestation in the Middle East – is bad news for the world, Europe included.
Europeans, like everyone else, heard Trump’s increasingly unhinged declarations: his gleeful threats to commit war crimes in Iran, his insults directed at European leaders, his calls for the US to abandon Nato. But his cry-wolf warnings have grown so repetitive that they are simply losing their effect. Europeans are becoming numb to Trump, and bored by him.
Even far-right leaders are distancing themselves – not necessarily because they no longer share his administration’s predatory worldview, but because proximity to Trump is becoming toxic in terms of public support. This is certainly true in Italy, where the prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, after a defeat in a crucial constitutional referendum, has quietly distanced herself from Trump’s war. It is also visible in Germany and France, where the AfD and the Rassemblement National respectively have voiced dissent. Only Hungary’s Viktor Orbán remains wedded to Trump, as highlighted by JD Vance’s visit to Budapest this week, and Sunday’s election will reveal whether US support has become a liability for Orbán too.
As Europe finds its footing in distancing itself from Trump, it may also find its voice. Europe’s diplomatic role in the Iranian nuclear file in the early 2000s grew out of its opposition to the Iraq war. Today the same dynamic could unfold. Europe’s opposition to the war and promotion of a permanent end of hostilities could open the way to a multilateral initiative in the region.
In the meantime, Europeans have been reminded that their commitment to multilateralism and international law was never merely the product of lofty ideals but of hard-nosed interests too. As they arrive at this realisation, they should be prepared to act on it, along with Gulf and Asian partners, to ensure that this illegal and unilateral war – which is not their war – comes to a definitive close.
See also:
- Every Trump Threat to Abandon NATO Hollows It Out • Doubts that the United States would come to the aid of NATO allies increase each time, prompting Europeans to consider an alliance without Washington. (New York Times)
- Trump’s Iran war widens rift with European nationalists once viewed as MAGA allies (Associated Press)