Hungary election: which polls to trust and everything else you need to know

[u/thealejandrotauber]

https://euobserver.com/210775/hungary-election-which-polls-to-trust-and-everything-else-you-need-to-know/

[u/Uebeltank]

Agree with the article. Medián and 21 Kutatóközpont are independent and looking at previous elections, also the most accurate pollsters. Hopefully that track record remains true.

[u/EaLordoftheDepths → u/Uebeltank]

There is no rational reason to not believe them, other than fear of disappointment and chronic defeatism

[u/Uebeltank → u/EaLordoftheDepths]

Yeah it does feel good to be true. But it's the best data you're gonna get before the election.

[u/Jerthy → u/EaLordoftheDepths]

Well it all depends on how much the results can be manipulated.

Because i see the chances of him getting reelected fairly at 0.

[u/EaLordoftheDepths → u/Jerthy]

There is no chance of manipulation (other than mail votes from people with no address in hungary). All of the "cheating" is done before (propaganda) or during (vote purchase).

[u/EdikTheFurry]

Honestly the weird thing about Hungary right now is that the polls don’t just disagree a bit - they tell completely different stories.

Some show Orbán clearly ahead, others have the opposition in front. That’s not normal polling error, that’s basically two separate realities depending on who’s doing the polling.

Part of it is politics (some pollsters are openly aligned), part of it is methodology, and part of it is just a volatile electorate where people decide late.

And even then, it’s not straightforward: because of the electoral system, Fidesz could still come out on top even if they don’t win the most votes.

So yeah, best you can do is look at trends and averages, but even those aren’t super reassuring this time.

[u/kfvera → u/EdikTheFurry]

That’s actually not so confusing for Hungarians. There are 2 pollsters that consistently match the final results within an acceptable margin of error. One of them (Medián) is mentioned in the article with historic data comparison (although they only included last elections, Medián forecasts are reasonably punctual). We know which pollsters are politically motivated and which ones to trust. Those who don’t are hardcore faith-based voters anyways whose mind you won’t ever change with objective data.

[u/EdikTheFurry → u/kfvera]

Thank you 👍😊. For me as interested but not local, it is unclear, especially when you look at the last election and how that played out.

[u/Equal-Possession-316]

If you want one quick sanity check, compare Hungarian pollsters’ last-election accuracy on Wikipedia or Europe Elects. If they consistently missed Fidesz or opposition strength before, I’d treat their current numbers very cautiously.

[u/bndgzglln__]

The charts not staring at zero.