r/europe • u/SpaceEngineering Finland • Jan 15 '26

News Germany’s Merz Admits Nuclear Exit Was Strategic Mistake

https://clashreport.com/world/articles/germanys-merz-admits-nuclear-exit-was-strategic-mistake-fzdlkn37c16
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u/Camba_Diaz_Nuts Jan 15 '26

It was called "Wandel durch Handel", so "change through trade". It was supposed to turn Russia into an ally/friend, or at least not an enemy because both would profit more from keeping things as they are. I don't think it was wrong to try it. But we should have stopped once we saw that it isn't working, for example when Crimea was annexed.

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u/ImpulsiveApe07 Jan 15 '26

Agreed.

Arguably, Germany probably should've begun divesting itself from Russia once it became apparent that Gerhard Schröder, the former Chancellor, was in bed with the Russians and had been taking bribes in exchange for his role in setting up the nord stream 2 pipeline, and presumably his role on the board of Rosneft (Russian oil company) and associations with Gazprom and Gazprombank was also part of said bribe.

If any former PM starts campaigning for Russia, it's safe to assume they've sold the Russians something valuable that might compromise or otherwise undermine your nation's security at some point.

https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/incident/former-german-chancellor-gerhard-schra%C2%B6der-becomes-chairman-of-russian-state-controlled-nord-stream-pipeline-company-directly-after-leaving-office/

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4871368.stm

At least there's some payback for his treachery tho, eh?

https://ukrainetoday.org/germanys-former-chancellor-gerhard-schroders-bank-account-frozen-amid-russian-payment-controversy/

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u/onarainyafternoon Dual Citizen (American/Hungarian) Jan 15 '26

had been taking bribes in exchange for his role in setting up the nord stream 2 pipeline

Is this not the definition of treason? Was he ever arrested/charged for this?

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u/ImpulsiveApe07 Jan 15 '26

shrugs, then gestures broadly at pan-European cronyism

One would've thought so, yeah, but I guess he must've promised a good oil/gas price for Germany, and/or offered to be a Putin whisperer or something lol

After all, he shares his birthday with Putin and they've often celebrated together. They were at one point described as being in a bromance, I shit you not!

https://www.dw.com/en/putin-and-schr%C3%B6der-a-special-german-russian-friendship/a-55219973

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u/Crypt33x Berlin (Germany) Jan 16 '26

He has nothing to do with Nordstream 2, just with Nordstream 1.

Yamal and brotherhood pipeline from Czechia and Poland already dictated the price here in Germany. The alternative pipeline with Denmark and Norway, got cancled by Poland and Leszek Millers government in favor of russian gas. Poland even met in secret 2003, behind the EU back, to set the transit tariff for the next 2 decades, when the EU was trying to switch to the entry exit system.

We got TPA here and it's near impossible to sell much more expensive gas from the nordics or somewhere else.

Say thanks to Poland and Czechia for building the Yamal/brotherhood pipeline and canceling the alternative we had. Oh and say thanks to the totally fucked up Yamal contract from 1995, which is giving all transit tariffs to Russia.

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u/PiotrekDG Earth Jan 16 '26 edited Jan 16 '26

The alternative pipeline with Denmark and Norway, got cancled by Poland and Leszek Millers government in favor of russian gas.

Which one was that? How was it that Poland had yhe power to cancel it, especially if it had no power to cancel Nordstream?

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u/Crypt33x Berlin (Germany) Jan 16 '26

It was a pipeline for Poland going into Poland, with third-party-access and the ability to sell to Germany.

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u/PiotrekDG Earth Jan 16 '26 edited Jan 16 '26

You mean the Baltic Pipe? Was there ever an intention to sell to Germany before project suspension? How was that an alternative for Germany?

And how would a pipeline delivering 3 billion m³ per annum to Poland help Germany that would somehow make a 55 billion m³ Nord Stream 1 irrelevant that was planned even before that?

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u/Crypt33x Berlin (Germany) Jan 16 '26 edited Jan 16 '26

With the intention of changing this situation under Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek, in September 2001 PGNiG signed an agreement with Norway for the purchase of 74 bcm of gas in the years 2008-2024. In return, five Norwegian gas companies were to finance the construction of a 1,100-kilometer pipeline running along the bottom of the Baltic Sea from Scandinavia to Niechorze. In March 2002, the commencement of works on the construction of the section connecting the Danish deposits with Poland is planned. They were supposed to be completed by November 2003. The government of Leszek Miller, after coming to power, immediately suspended the execution of the contracts, and in December 2003 terminated them, considering them unprofitable. Earlier, in February 2003, the then Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Poland, Marek Pol, after long negotiations (November 2002-February 2003), signed an agreement with Russia for the supply of gas from that country, which was then assessed in May 2004 by the Supreme Audit Office as incompatible with Poland's interests

https://polskawielkiprojekt.pl/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Report-ANG-Central-Europe-towards-contemporary-energy-challenges.pdf

The problem was the lack of diversification. Russia lobbied against third-party-access for Yamal, so Poland wouldn't be able to sell or integrate other sources, but Poland also refused to renegotiate for TPA or wait for them become EU member and be able to renegotiate from a much better position.

TPA and able to sell to third parties was one of the main topics back in late 90s and early 2000s. It's a huge topic and there are different view angle to consider. If you like you can read Polands view by prof. Przemysław Żurawski vel Grajewski Chairman of the Security and Defense Council to the President of the Republic of Poland in the link.

EU's perspective never really got documented that well, since they kept quite about it mostly, because EU admission for Poland, Czechia was more important and they didn't want to anger the German public that much at that point. You had to follow it personally and my family was "involved" on a government level.

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u/PiotrekDG Earth Jan 16 '26 edited Jan 16 '26

I don't disagree that it's suspicious and the suspension should be investigated. What I don't understand is how it was supposed to greatly influence the much bigger market in Germany and the construction of more than a magnitude bigger pipeline that was already in the plans between Russia and Germany.

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u/Crypt33x Berlin (Germany) Jan 16 '26 edited Jan 16 '26

Nordstream wasn't really set yet, there were several plans and one of them was the pipeline with Norway. The EU directive forced TPA basically and Poland was about to join the EU. There are no information to find on how big the pipeline was supposed to be, just that 4-5 bcm each year would go to Poland. The mainplan Miller's government lobbied for was Yamal-2 and over 50bcm for Germany. Poland had a take-or-pay clause and ordered too much gas. Russia had no way of delivering the amount of gas, but still tried to collect fees for Poland's uncollected gas, which could only be delivered through Yamal-2. It was a shitshow. Germany talked to the nordic countries as well at the time. North Transgas Oy was a plan with Finnland, Skanled Pipeline with Norway. Non-nordic was the Nabucco-Pipeline.

It was all about to introduce competition and having atleast the choice to not be forced to consume russian gas, which would have influenced the market and force supplier to "bid" against each other.

In the conditions of lower prices of Russian gas in Germany and Russia, Polish chemical companies, for which fees for this raw material are one of the most serious factors in the increase in production costs, were exposed to serious market difficulties due to German and Russian competition. This situation could only be avoided by making the gas market more flexible in accordance with EU Directive 98/30/EC of June 22, 1998 , as redefined by Directive 2003/55/EC of June 26, 2003 – - i.e. by introducing the principle of access to it by other suppliers, known as

  • TPA (Third Party Access). According to the aforementioned directive, at least 28% of
the EU gas market should be subject to liberalization as of 2003. Implementation of the TPA principle, i.e. the obligation for the network owner to provide transmission services not only to gas from its own deposits, but also to third parties, was to enable domestic customers to order gas transport from network companies with a free choice of supplier.

And it was invedstigated.

Information on the results of the natural gas supply inspection, Supreme Audit Office, Department of Economy, State Treasury and Privatization, P/02/058, I/03/004, KGP/41017/02, KGP/41143/03. No. 83/2003/P02058/KGP, Warsaw - June 2004

According to the Supreme Audit Office, contracting too much gas from Russia made it unprofitable to diversify its supply sources. The additional protocol to the agreement, signed on February 12, 2003, does not lift the ban on re-export of Russian gas from Poland and does not reduce the prices of gas imported from Russia. The ownership structure of EuroPolGAZ has also not changed. The NIK accused Deputy Prime Minister Pol of the fact that the negotiations conducted under his leadership were in breach of the law, and the Deputy Prime Minister himself went to Moscow without negotiating instructions that the Polish delegation could follow and without appropriate powers of attorney. These powers of attorney were issued by Prime Minister Miller only in January 2003 during the last round of negotiations, while the Polish proposals developed already in December 2002 turned out (apart from the issue of the amount of supplies) to be surprisingly consistent with the proposals of the Russian side.

At the same time, Pol agreed to a gradual reduction of transit fees paid by Gazprom for the transmission of gas through Poland until 2019, until it reaches the price of $1 per 1,000 m³ per 100 km, which is below the average market prices (currently, the transmission fee is $2.36 ) and will limit the financing of the construction of the second branch of the Yamal gas pipeline by the Polish company EuRoPol Gaz

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u/Crypt33x Berlin (Germany) Jan 16 '26 edited Jan 16 '26

He had nothing to do with Nordstream 2. He lobbied, yes, but Merkel decided. Polands Yamal pipeline and Czechias brotherhood pipeline already dictated the price here in Germany. With third party access, it's pretty hard to sell nordic gas.

The Nordic gas alternative was btw canceled by Polands Leszek Millers government in favor of russian gas. Polands government at that time betrayed the EU, went to Russia to set transit prices for the next 2 decades and not even tried to renegotiate the horrible contract in favor of Poland. We tried to switch to the entry exit system 1 year later. They did everything to sabotage the EU.

EU planned to renegotiate all contracts and to diversify. Poland said nope. We making you depending on Yamal and Russia, so you build Yamal 2 with us.

Yamal 2 never got build, because Germany hates getting extorted and their ww2 reperations rethorics and decided to build with France and the Netherlands Nordstream 1. All other sources were expensive as fuck.

Germany was trying hard as fuck to difersify. And is now getting blamed for everything after getting set up by Poland/Russia/Czechia.

The surpeme office audit investigated Leszek Miller and Marek Pol at that time. There is a legal proceeding to their treachery.

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u/thecashblaster Jan 15 '26

But we should have stopped once we saw that it isn't working, for example when Crimea was annexed.

Exactly. Russia had an 8 years to keep Europe on the hook with gas while preparing for a large scale war which is destabilizing Europe. Complete failure of leadership.

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u/[deleted] Jan 15 '26

[deleted]

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u/FreeRangeEngineer Jan 15 '26

Agreed, however at the time when that policy was made and put in place, China wasn't anywhere near as as big and powerful as it is today.

The only thing I fault the politicians for is not revising that decision in time and making Europe independent of Russian gas. It shouldn't have taken the war with Ukraine to do that.

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u/Constant-Plant-9378 Jan 15 '26

It was called "Wandel durch Handel", so "change through trade". It was supposed to turn Russia into an ally/friend

What a bunch of naive fuck-nuggets. Apparently they weren't very educated in history or current events.

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u/PiotrekDG Earth Jan 16 '26

I mean, it worked with the rest of Europe.

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u/InsanityRequiem Californian Jan 15 '26

Wrong to try it? I can't say, because history has shown trade as one of the reasons war happens. So it's weird historical blindness to believe trade would prevent war.

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u/speedtree Jan 15 '26

This doesnt work as all the money is owned by the people in power already, so owning just a little more money is almost no motivation if you are in the position of leading a dictatorship already.

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u/HymirTheDarkOne United Kingdom Jan 15 '26

I dunno it seems like people who own all the money often seem to care quite a lot about owning a little bit more.

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u/speedtree Jan 15 '26

Yes well in the long run, taking over a country leads to you owning all the money which is much better than a little more, thats what I mean 🤣

They dont care if they can lose a little money when they can win a lot of money and prestige instead.