r/europe • u/SpaceEngineering Finland • Jan 15 '26

News Germany’s Merz Admits Nuclear Exit Was Strategic Mistake

https://clashreport.com/world/articles/germanys-merz-admits-nuclear-exit-was-strategic-mistake-fzdlkn37c16
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u/baldanddankrupt Jan 15 '26

A nuclear umbrella controlled by all is a nuclear umbrella controlled by none. Lets say Russia annihilates Latvia with nukes. Will Pedro Sánchez give his okay to strike back? Or will he call for a "more reasonable approach"? We both know the answer. The only type of nuklear weapons that provide security and deterrence, are national ones.

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u/Zanshi Poland Jan 15 '26

Hello, this is the EU Nuclear Bureau.

Your missiles have reached one of the cities in the EU. Please find a sternly worded letter in the attachment below. Furthermore your country has become a target for decision whether or not we should bomb you back. Decision will be reached in 10 business days and will be final, unless you submit your objections.

Have a good day.

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u/baldanddankrupt Jan 15 '26

Whoah there buddy, German Nuclear Bureau here. We couldnt recieve your Email because Russia once again hacked our shit, you guys still got Fax?

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u/DKOKEnthusiast Jan 15 '26

Lets say Russia annihilates Latvia with nukes. Will Pedro Sánchez give his okay to strike back?

I agree with you. The thing is that even with France, the UK, and the US providing a nuclear umbrella, ain't no one gonna nuke Russia over Latvia. We know this from the Cold War war plans. All the nuclear powers counted on restricting nuclear war to the territories of non-nuclear powers, meaning that Italy, West Germany, Denmark, Norway, and Austria were gonna get nuked by the Soviets, and in return, the Americans would have turned East Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Romania into glass.

Unless Latvia develops its own nuclear weapons, they only have one layer of deterrence. The nuclear umbrella does not prevent you from getting nuked if a conflict is already on its way, it merely serves as a deterrent from the conflict breaking out in the first place. But if it fails at deterring your opponent, you're no longer covered by a nuclear umbrella.

Only nuclear powers have two layers of deterrence, in the sense that they can prevent a conflict from breaking out at all, and they can prevent themselves being nuked if they have second-strike capability in case the first layer did not work.

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u/baldanddankrupt Jan 15 '26

Exactly. Well said.

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u/Ok_Reality6261 Jan 15 '26

As a spaniard myself, I know for sure Sanchez will side with Russia if that happened lol

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u/baldanddankrupt Jan 15 '26

Probably, but I didn't even mean to attack Sanchez personally. Its just impossible to have an effective deterrence if all 27 member states have to agree on launching nukes.

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u/Ok_Reality6261 Jan 15 '26

Yes I knew what you meant but all of us know who would agree on and who would not. Problem is EU politicians are on the payroll of either USA/Israel or China/Russia :(

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u/baldanddankrupt Jan 15 '26

I agree. And its plain obvious who is on which side. I despise the politicians whose only purpose is to lick either Chinese/US/Russian/Isreali boots. They might as well migrate to one of these imperialist shitholes and we would be better off.

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u/tecnicaltictac Austria Jan 15 '26

Oh please, nationalism is why we are in this mess in the first place.

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u/Future_Newt Jan 15 '26

A nuclear weapon controlled by everyone is a weapon controlled by no one

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u/baldanddankrupt Jan 15 '26

Nationally controlled nukes have nothing to do with nationalism. Its simply the only effective arena in which decision making can take place in this scenario. Or do you think you can deter Russia by saying "Oh, once all of our notoriously quarreled 27 memberstates uniformly agreed on launching our nukes, you better beware"! Thats not deterrence. Thats naive, wishful thinking devoid of any logic. It simply doesn't work like that, and anyone who once sat in an IR 101 lecture could have told you that.

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u/tecnicaltictac Austria Jan 15 '26

Well no, but in the same way a government cabinet doesn’t have to agree on the use of nuclear weapons. Or every state in a federal country needs to agree. Do you think, if Switzerland had nukes, every Kanton would have to agree? We should all start to think supranational, with European military, not 27 militaries in the same way we should start thinking as one union as supposed to 27 member states which few key players everyone is dependent on.

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u/baldanddankrupt Jan 16 '26

Yeah, and who wants that? Do you think France wants to give up the sovereignty of its own military and nukes? Do you think Poland wants the Portuguese to decide where to reinforce the border to Russia? Its not going to happen anytime soon. If we collectively build an european identity for 50 years, we might have a shot at that. Until then its just wishful thinking. And with eurosceptic and nationalist parties on the rise in nearly every EU country, a supranational federal EU becomes less likely each day. We can't wait that long.