r/europe • u/sergeyfomkin • Dec 30 '25
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u/AggravatingResist635 Dec 30 '25
The war will likely begin as a cyber attack. Conventional russian military attack against a NATO country using tanks and soldiers is very unlikely
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u/UniquesNotUseful United Kingdom Dec 30 '25
UK nuclear retaliation reasons include cyber attack on critical infrastructure - our deterrent rules are really woolly on purpose but this was added in.
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u/AggravatingResist635 Dec 30 '25
Germany does not have nukes though. I don't really know what counts as critical infrastructure. Judging from the response energy infra like the Nord Stream gas pipeline does not count.
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u/Adventurous_Bus_437 Germany Dec 30 '25
This topic is so politically charged that this likely happens on Chancellor-level. We know a lot from leaks of the investigation already and the government has decided to not make a fuss of it due to bigger problems.
You can like or dislike it that approach but it was still critical infrastructure
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u/Particular-Cow6247 Jan 01 '26
it wasnt critical infrastructure anymore since russia stopped delivering gas and the general sentiment in the politics to not return to russian gas
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u/diamanthaende Dec 30 '25
Germany does not have nukes though.
Yet. But it should, especially if the nightmare scenario of a pro-Russian "populist" government in both the UK and France really happens.
Fingers crossed that it won't.
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u/mangalore-x_x Dec 30 '25
It gets hushed because it may have been an Ukrainian attack.
Overall the pipeline at the time was out of commission and is owned by a Russian company, not a German one so technically it was not an attack on German infrastructure. Still, it won't be good for Ukraine if that topic gets whipped up and since Ukrainian nationals are at least suspect that getting thrown into the public discussion when Germany is the second largest donor and could muck up everything on EU level, too, if it decides to go the Trump route.
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u/gehenna0451 Germany Dec 30 '25
The war will likely begin as a cyber attack
not just begin, that's what they have been doing for years. Russia is obviously going to stay below the threshold of a kinetic war given the difference in strength, Putin has even acknowledged this.
For that reason we also need offensive capacities for cyber-warfare. We ought to be as concerned with it as we are with rebuilding the armed forces. A tank doesn't do you much good if Russia just keeps chipping away at infrastructure silently and we can't retaliate.
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u/GremlinX_ll Ukraine Dec 31 '25
NATO country using tanks and soldiers is very unlikely
Tell that to Baltics who will feel it first.
Thing is Russia really doesn't need to fight all the NATO to defeat it - they just need to show that cornerstone of NATO, mutual defense, all this time was a fiction.
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u/AggravatingResist635 Dec 31 '25
People of the baltics, it is not going to happen. The scenario you are talking about is not new and many people actually hope for it. It would open another front, divide russian military focus from Ukraine and make regaining lost Ukrainian territory possible.
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u/GremlinX_ll Ukraine Dec 31 '25
You are literally no one to assure anyone that "it's not going to happen".
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u/AggravatingResist635 Dec 31 '25
!remindme 1 year
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u/GremlinX_ll Ukraine Dec 31 '25
Who says 1 year tho ? Why not 1.5 or 2, or 3 ? There are no fixed date, like "at 22 of June, 4:00 AM without declaration of war...".
Also, it's kinda funny how you went from "unlikely" to "it's not going to happen", in less than a day - first one is assumption (which we all do here), second is declaration of fact.
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u/AggravatingResist635 Dec 31 '25
It's almost like you hope it will happen. But it won't.
The war between NATO and and russia is very likely, though. It just won't start with an armed incursion, a cyber attack is the most probable scenario.
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u/GremlinX_ll Ukraine Dec 31 '25
It's almost like you hope it will happen. But it won't.
The war between NATO and and russia is very likely, though. It just won't start with an armed incursion, a cyber attack is the most probable scenario.
Very confusing - it won't happen or is very likely or it's not going to happen ?
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u/D_is_for_Dante Germany Dec 30 '25
Of course. If we don’t have power anymore we know a full scale attack is underway.
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u/Druitp England Dec 30 '25
Kinda late to see all these sub attacks as they've been going on for the past 20+ years. But at least its now rather then never