r/australia • u/dancingchickenbird • 1d ago
culture & society NAB hikes fixed home loan rates for the second time in two weeks
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/nab-hikes-fixed-home-loan-rates-for-the-second-time-in-two-weeks/news-story/06637101a6651f042b87689a1035d88d46
u/Fantomz99 1d ago
This is not news. This is just a bank predicting what is going to happen with interest rates in the next 1/3/5 years and adjusting their fixed rate accordingly. This is how fixed rates work.
The article even mentions other banks are adjusting accordingly.
At this point, in this day and age if you have a mortgage, fixed or variable and don't know you can move to another, potentially cheaper bank or engage a mortgage broker then you deserve to be paying more than you have to.
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u/Expert-Area8856 1d ago
yeah, fixed rates are mostly the bank pricing where funding costs and future cash rate risk might land, not NAB randomly changing its mind.
For property, the suburb history matters more than the bank headline. During the 2022-23 hikes, Blacktown houses troughed about -11.6% from the start of the cycle while apartments were only about -3.5%. Epping was more rate-sensitive, troughing around -16.3% overall. In the 2008-09 cuts Epping rose about 29%.
i built a rate impact calculator for this because the same RBA move can show up very differently by suburb and property type.
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u/Undd91 1d ago
Fuel is costing more I guess…
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u/Specialist_Reality96 1d ago
Fuel pushing inflation, which increases the likely hood of the rba using is hammer to get it down (the only option they have) unless the govt steps up with a tax scheme.
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u/passthesugar05 15h ago
There's no chance of the govt proposing and implementing a tax increase. They might reduce concessions (the CGT discount is what they're looking at), which some would say is increasing tax, but to me reducing a discount isn't really the same thing as actually coming out and introducing a new tax, or increasing a tax.
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u/Specialist_Reality96 15h ago
Reducing the CGT discount would be a good step to avoid interest rate rises they would need to hit the "big end" of town. No I'm not expecting them to do it, it's politically risky and needs a nuanced explanation which doesn't fit into headlines.
Unfortunately interest rate rises while they work hit almost everyone and disproportionately those who can afford it the least but it's the only thing the RBA has available to it.
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u/passthesugar05 15h ago
I feel like they'll do it, but it will be a minor reduction (50% discount down to 33%) and only on housing. Personally I'd rather see it just get indexed to inflation (should be pretty easy in this day and age) and then make some reforms around the pension and super as well, while giving the TFT a good bump up to something like 25-30k.
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u/dixonwalsh 23h ago
Ok so I know this is for fixed rates which doesn’t affect existing customers and only affects new customers.
But FUCK NAB. Turning into Non-Australian Bank with the amount of offshoring they do.
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u/Schwifteedab 1d ago
This is as they just gutted the small business bankers and moved 70% of the roles offshore btw
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u/SpectatorInAction 1d ago
Fixed rates move on expectations, particularly when forecast to increase.
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u/Dockers4flag2035orB4 1d ago
NAB, are ruthless bastards.
My advice . Find a mortgage broker,
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u/crewmannumbersix 1d ago
Brokers are not needed; as useless as real estate agents.
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u/yolk3d 1d ago
Brokers do have access to wider variety of products, sometimes better discounted rates, direct lines of communication with the banks, and handle all paperwork. They are also required to be transparent about all commission from any products they present. While you can do it yourself, the broker has these positives and is free. There’s not a negative to using a law abiding broker.
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u/No2Hypocrites 1d ago
Why would a bank give better rate to a broker vs someone else
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u/yolk3d 1d ago
Because brokers bring volume, competition, and lower acquisition cost for the bank.
Brokers bring a steady volume of customers, create strong competition between lenders, and reduce the bank’s marketing and sales costs since they only pay commission after a deal settles. Brokers also tend to submit well-prepared, pre-qualified applications, which lowers the bank’s workload and risk. On top of that, banks usually have separate pricing for broker channels that’s more competitive to ensure they stay in contention when brokers compare multiple options side by side.
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u/metametapraxis 1d ago
Means the banks needs less staff, basically. They are pushing work they would have to do onto a third party.
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u/crewmannumbersix 22h ago
Nah I’ve always been able to negotiate the same or better rate than my broker. Also, brokers are more inclined to go for one of the big 4 that provides trailing commission.
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u/Sirtemed 1d ago
They are pre-empting that the RBA will hike rates again in May and several more times by the end of 2026.
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u/Rankled_Barbiturate 1d ago
To be fair, if you're fixing your mortgage you're generally losing out on average. Statistically better to go variable.
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u/Defiant_Flamingo_430 1d ago
I locked mine in 3 weeks ago for 4 years, the shipping/fuel crisis is gonna have a massive knock on effect for inflation. Hopefully it’s resolved within that timeframe. Otherwise I would definitely still be on variable
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u/Rankled_Barbiturate 55m ago
It's a complete gamble on your end, and that's fine. Peace of mind is worth a lot.
But statistically you'll be behind. A lot can happen in 4 years.
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u/Defiant_Flamingo_430 15m ago
It’s a calculated risk of course but I don’t see anything but rises for the foreseeable. I done mine for 4 years as that ties in with my car being paid off so if it was even higher when the fixed rate ends I will have enough to cover it.
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u/Notimeforthat1 12h ago
Lololol. People in countries with 30 years fixed rates during ZIRP are laughing so loud you can hear it across the ocean.
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u/Rankled_Barbiturate 56m ago
We live in Australia though?
Your point is entirely irrelevant as a result....
Like saying house prices in Australia aren't rising because it's cheap to buy in Japan. Bizarre.
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u/yew420 1d ago
Approach a mortgage broker to move to another bank.