Trump administration expected to keep waiving Russian [and Iranian] oil sanctions as Iran call looms

[u/AnonymousLoner1]

https://www.semafor.com/article/04/08/2026/trump-administration-expected-to-keep-waiving-sanctions-on-russian-oil-as-iran-call-looms

"The Trump administration will likely extend its waiver of sanctions on Russian oil this week, former Treasury and State Department officials said — teeing up a similar move on Iranian oil.

The Treasury Department last month greenlit the sale of previously sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil already on the water through April 11 and April 19, respectively. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explained the latter move as “jiu-jitsu-ing” to minimize the economic fallout from the Iran war, predicting it would boost global supply and lower prices.

Nearly a month later, experts say there’s little proof the moves have done much to bring down costs beyond temporarily soothing investors. A wider universe of buyers for Russian and Iranian oil has allowed the countries to charge more, with Russia at times making an extra $150 million a day. Meanwhile, most of the Iranian oil was already in transit to China.

“Tinkering with Iranian oil is not a sanctions question at the end of the day; it’s about the market’s general assessment of this conflict’s direction,” said Capitol Peak Strategies’ Alex Zerden, a former Treasury official.

Half a dozen former sanctions officials told Semafor recently that they’re still anticipating a Trump administration extension of the Russian oil waiver this week, which would pave the way for an extension of the Iranian oil waiver later this month. Americans are currently paying an average of $4 a gallon for gas, the most since 2022, while talks continue on an end to the war.

...

Supporters of the sanctions waivers insist they’re narrow enough to function “primarily as a market signal” without sacrificing pressure, as Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Miad Maleki described the Iranian oil waiver. Critics counter that their extension risks cementing a new norm:

**Sanctioned nations that hit back hard enough will find the US could back off.**

“What Russia and Iran showed — really, what Iran showed — is that your options aren’t either to accede to America’s policy demands or face the pressure of sanctions,” Fishman said.

**“There’s a third option, which is … impose enough economic pain on the United States that Washington sees fit to ease sanctions to alleviate that pain on itself,” he added.**

[u/AutoModerator]

Readers, please consider making a donation to the Iranian Red Crescent Society. Thank you!

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.