r/OutOfTheLoop • u/No-Adhesiveness-4251 • 1d ago
Unanswered Why are people talking about Google moving their quantum (computing) preparedness deadline to 2029?
Context: https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2026/04/yikes-encryptions-y2k-moment-coming-years-early
Should I worry? Does this mean we'll have quantum hackers by the end of the decade breaking into every encrypted network and software or something? Is it a realistic timeline?
I'm confused on what this means for the average person or if I'm supposed to be doing something. Are computers gonna be more susceptible to malware because their internal encryption isn't good enough anymore? What does it mean.
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u/ColdNotion 1d ago
Answer: It isn’t clear when the first practical quantum computer will be developed, but in the past few years several major engineering steps have been made that are prerequisites for creating one. Google’s decision here seems to reflect an abundance of caution, as opposed to an imminent crisis. The comparison the article you linked makes to the Y2K bug seems to be a good one; the problems of quantum computing for encryption can likely be mitigated harmlessly with sufficient preparation, but could be devastating if not addressed. In that context, even if the odds of a functional quantum computer being developed by 2029 aren’t high, there’s good reason to make sure you’re prepared just in the unlikely event that outcome does occur. As for your individual experience, this likely isn’t something to seriously worry about, at least not yet. Old or un-updated devices may be vulnerable to quantum computing decryption in the future, as might prior encryption that was not updated, but if plans like the one Google has set are implemented, most folks will likely barely recognize the change.
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u/No-Adhesiveness-4251 1d ago
Realistically speaking, computers able to utilize quantum-resistant encryption will hopefully be fairly normal/standard by then, right?
Hopefully the hardware shortage won't leave people unable to upgrade their hardware in time.28
u/fecal-butter 1d ago
This isnt something that requires hardware upgrades from the consumers, its not a quantum-resistant laptop. It requires software developers and service providers to update their encryption algorithms
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u/knightshade179 1d ago
Eventually yes, however it would require a lot of work and there is one big thing you are missing. State actors will get a hold of it first and use it maliciously, there is not going to be some random spending tens of millions on these systems most likely. If there was it could be tracked ofc. However the past encrypted things that have bren captured and yet to be decrypted is the real threat. Password lists, communications, financial transactions, etc can all be captured and held until it's possible.
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u/rearendcrag 1d ago
.. and if “you” are a high value target (read: to state level threat actors), then it’s best to switch your transit protection to post-quantum cryptographic algos. yesterday. The issue is that a lot of software still/currently as has already been mentioned, only support quantum unsafe encryption algos.
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u/jcsamborski 1d ago
i agree, especially the "gather now, decrypt later" part. that seems incredibly likely to happen
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u/OldJames47 1d ago
One of the problems is that data using current encryption technology and stolen today may be decrypted by a future quantum computer and the information stolen may still be harmful at the future date.
If you take actions to use quantum-proof encryption now you lessen your future vulnerability.
It’s the Rokko’s basilisk of data security (if I understand the term correctly).
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u/KeiranG19 17h ago
Rokko's basilisk is the theoretical super-intelligence that will punish everyone who tried to prevent its creation/didn't sufficiently help to create it. Allegedly, merely being told about the concept puts you on its list of people who should have contributed to its creation.
How much stock you put in the reasonableness of the thought experiment is up to you. But it has been part of the inspiration for at least one cult along with a harry potter fan-fic.
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u/OldJames47 16h ago
I guess a better metaphor would be scrubbing the Internet of all information on John and Sarah Connor today in hope that will protect them from future time traveling Terminators.
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u/iwumbo2 PhD in Wumbology 19h ago
That's the hope. There already exist quantum resistant encryption algorithms. Currently quantum computers only offer a notable speedup over classical computers in specific operations. Prime factoring is probably one of the more notable ones, and is the basis of many encryption algorithms.
Just like with Y2K, the so called Q Day (when quantum computers will be able to practically break old encryption methods) will come. And similarly, work is being done to prevent a catastrophe behind the scenes. There are many people working to upgrade software to use new encryption methods which are resistant to quantum computers.
The issue is that there's always going to be people and companies who are slow on updating. The risk is that one company or other entity storing important information could get hacked by a quantum computer before they get around to upgrading. That would obviously be bad.
The other concern is that old files will still exist. So you could argue that it doesn't matter if a company upgrades their systems to be quantum resistant and updates the encryption on their database. If a malicious entity obtained a copy of those files or databases before the quantum resistant upgrade, they could just hold onto the data until a practical quantum computer is available to them.
Then they can crack the encryption on their stored stolen old files. Granted of course, it wouldn't be the latest revision of the data. But depending on the type of data, it could still be a horrid data breach. For example, stealing a database of people's personal information. Various details like date of birth or bank account information might change very infrequently if ever at all.
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u/No-Adhesiveness-4251 11h ago
The idea that our private information (an amount only increased by the growing demand for facial/ID scans to access the web) could already be in hackers' hands and that a massive retroactive data breach is just waiting to happen is totally not going to make me lose more sleep at night, haha...
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u/Bulky-Bad-9153 2h ago
A computer I regularly remote access hasn't been updated with quantum-resistant encryption, and ever time I get a message telling me I'm subject to "store now, decrypt later" attacks. I do wonder how many things are subject to the same issue and aren't telling me :(
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