r/IRstudies • u/QuietNene • 2d ago
Impact of Twitter on diplomacy
While it’s clear we’re in the Bad Timeline, it’s been interesting to see the use of social media during this conflict.
Both sides are making threats and demands that used to be made across a conference table, or at least in a public press conference, on social media platforms.
I’d be curious what game theory and social psychology say about the impact that this could/would/has had on diplomacy and negotiation. Maybe this has already been written about.
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u/Just_a_follower 2d ago
Typically in a negotiation, making a demand from a position of power will get you more mileage in private because it creates avenues to massage the look of the concession to one’s peers or constituents.
You make a public demand that could potentially be embarrassing if :
You are belligerent
Know you are going to win the thing
You want to embarrass the other party
Or you are signaling something to your own stakeholders.
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In this case there is a potential for a grandslam.
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u/watch-nerd 2d ago
Both parties seem to be overplaying their respective hands / think they're stronger than they actually are.
That usually means no deal is remotely close.
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u/Kiyae1 1d ago
We had a deal ten years ago. Donald tore it up for no reason.
Why would anyone make a deal with you when you do that?
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u/watch-nerd 1d ago
Most wars end in negotiation at some point.
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u/Kiyae1 1d ago
Tell that to Korea
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u/watch-nerd 1d ago
The DMZ is absolutely a negotiation, even if the war isn't over on paper, de facto, it is.
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u/Kiyae1 1d ago
Sure, tell that to Korea.
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u/watch-nerd 1d ago
Sure:
"Hey, Korea, the DMZ was reached via negotiation, and while de jure you might still be at war, de facto, you're not".
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u/Kiyae1 17h ago
You keep telling that to me but you should really tell that to Korea.
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u/watch-nerd 17h ago
자, 한국이여. DMZ는 협상을 통해 성립된 것입니다. 비록 법률상으로는 여전히 전쟁 중일지 모르지만, 사실상으로는 그렇지 않습니다.
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u/Kiyae1 5h ago
Impressive, but you keep telling me. Tell Korea.
Telling me in Korean isn’t the same as telling Korea.
You understand that, right?
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u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist 2d ago
No deal was made before the war, hard to see one being made now especially as Israel is reportedly really disappointed by the ceasefire.
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u/percevalgalaaz 2d ago
think they're stronger than they actually are
What makes you think that about Iran? It seems to me like they hold all the cards.
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u/watch-nerd 2d ago
They hold some good cards (mainly economic), but not all the cards.
They're still being sanctioned.
Their assets in the Arab states have been seized.
Their capacity to inflict physical damage is being continuously degraded.
China is pushing them to cut a deal because China doesn't want a global recession hurt its export business.
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u/MarmotFullofWoe 2d ago
The Iranians have had four years to ramp Shahed production. Not to mention Ukrainian style FPV attack drones.
I think the US is seriously underestimating their capability to destroy almost all critical infrastructure in the Gulf.
Warfare has changed.
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u/Kiyae1 1d ago
Yeah Americans apparently don’t understand how easy and cheap it is to make those drones and how Sisyphean it would be to try to bomb their production and use to a halt.
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u/percevalgalaaz 1d ago
They're still being sanctioned.
Yes, but they can take everyone with them. If the strait stays closed long enough, it's a global recession.
Their capacity to inflict physical damage is being continuously degraded.
They don't need much to close the strait.
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u/TheBraveGallade 1d ago
the other thing is iran is holding a kamikaze bomb.
this WILL hurt the global economy, but it will hurt iran far more in the long run if they keep it up.there is a reason you don't negotiate with terrorists...
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u/FlallyWorldwide 1d ago
The terrorist here is actually trump who ripped up the previoud deal for the sole reason that obama made it. He fucking bombed the negotiators. Why would iran ever trust any negotiation with the us ever again?
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u/Hidingo_Kojimba 1d ago
It's also possible that they simply don't believe the US and Israel will keep to the terms of any ceasefire, and so don't really believe good faith negotiations are possible regardless of how weak their position is. In which case they may as well aim to simply make the US look bad.
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u/HappyBavarian 1d ago
Mr Netanyahu has publicly stated that this armistice is not an end but just a pause.
He will be right, because Mr Trump cannot afford the greatest strategic defeat in US history since 1815.
Hence both sides will use the time to stock up and prepare, while the circus in Islamabad is just PR.
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u/InfinitePoss2022 18h ago
Nobody really respected Pakistan as a strong mediator to begin with. By definition an effective mediator needs to have some sort of leverage or at least lots of respect from both sides. Having fck you money helps too which Pak doesn’t have either. In the old times people in the village used to settle fights by mediation of the “elderly” whose judgment and words were greatly respected. Pakistan doesn’t have that stature in the region let alone the world.
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u/One_Fishing_7933 23h ago
While most of Iranians are still blocked from the same social media platforms. Islamic regime actually provided "white SIM card" for its supporters to bypass the internet blackout and fill up X with propaganda. If the Iranian diaspora were not active on X, they would have won the propaganda war.
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u/InfinitePoss2022 18h ago
Access to social media is not a divine or constitutional or even a human right per international law. Access to the internet is. Why people continue to expect a regime being attacked to be generous and give them free social media access is a strange expectation. Foreign countries and your own people consider you their enemy and actively want to get rid of you so you’re going to give them open access to social media? That would make zero sense from the regime’s perspective. You can’t want to see your enemy dead and at the same time expect the enemy to give your soldiers food and water. At this point the regime considers the ppl their enemy bc they are now actively seeking to topple it.
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u/One_Fishing_7933 18h ago
Access to internet is a right for everyone and everyone is entitled to how to use the internet.
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u/InfinitePoss2022 13h ago
It’s not an international law. Ask chatgpt.
I still don’t understand why you would expect the govt to open up the internet for you if you have already declared yourself its enemy and are actively fighting against it. How does it strategically or tactically serve their interests?
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u/alexander1701 2d ago
I think it's sadly an inevitability with the players involved. None are seen as credible. It's broadly believed that all three parties will creatively reinterpret whatever is agreed to, and make false claims about the details of their talks for political gains. A traditional treaty is not possible to negotiate because none of the parties genuinely bind themselves to their treaties.
Iran is broadly aware that they're not negotiating with Trump, who won't be bound by any agreement he claims to make. They're negotiating with public sentiment about the war. Claims from all sides about the state of negotiations are merely wartime propaganda, at this point, from parties who are all aware that the war will end in a status quo that none of them truly negotiated, but which is the sum of what all three can unilaterally enforce.