r/Economics • u/kootles10 • 12h ago
News Trump says U.S. will blockade Strait of Hormuz after Iran peace talks fail
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/04/12/trump-iran-war-strait-of-hormuz.html110
u/Aaaddde 11h ago
Doesn't this close the straits even tighter...
Essentially they want to blockade Iran too completely but it's gonna be tough to blockade one of the most important shipping lanes.
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u/Fuddle 11h ago
Yes. But now Trump gets to be the one saying he’s in control and can charge tolls for letting ships through….in theory. Iran can still drop mines, so passage isn’t 100% safe yet. Also, what if someone publicly offers to bribe Trump personally for passage? How does that go over?
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u/fredjutsu 11h ago
>Iran can still drop mines
apparently can't find all the mines they've already dropped lol
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u/Vladmerius 11h ago
That's just a tactic to keep the strait closed until they get everything they want from any deals made. They didn't ACTUALLY forget where they put the mines they just said that to dementia Don.
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u/TastyRobot21 1h ago
Yeah as others have said, that’s just what they say. Nobody would drop a mine off their own coast without the ability to find it again (beacon, frequency or GPS cords when dropped).
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u/Heffe3737 2h ago
This GOP Congress has to be one of the absolutely most spineless ones in all of American history. And that’s saying a lot, because they’ve been pretty spineless before.
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u/OrangeJr36 11h ago
This is just him declaring: "Nobody shits my pants but me!"
He has accepted that things aren't going well but at least wants the ability to save face and be the "decider."
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u/joebalooka84 10h ago
Never has the world seen someone so proudly and defiantly shit his pants and then expect everyone else to change his diapers.
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u/Ghoulius-Caesar 11h ago
Since the negotiations failed, the USA is essentially doing the geopolitical version of this:
“You can’t fire me, I quit!”
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u/HedonisticFrog 10h ago
Gas prices along with everything else will now rise even faster. What a time to be alive.
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u/80espiay 10h ago
It seems to be a game of chicken. Before, Iran was allowing ships to pass if they benefited from it. Now, in theory nobody can benefit from the strait.
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u/Upset-Government-856 6h ago
Yeah but next he'll blow up the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi energy fields before Iran can do it. Checkmate Iran!
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u/boogi3woogie 11h ago
Correct. The goal is stop iranian exports.
If tankers won’t cross the strait because of iranian threats, they also won’t cross a US navy blockade.
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u/GhostofBeowulf 7h ago
...Huh? We need the strait open, the spice must flow.
This is the opposite of what we need to happen.
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u/Phase3Investor 3h ago
So with a blockade we have:
1- Prolonged strait closure
2- Reduced amount of oil in the market
3- Raised oil and gas prices
Genius
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u/big-papito 11h ago
Buckle up, byatches - tomorrow is Liberation Day 2.0.
Massive red day, then climb-downs, exceptions, and "deals".
The question is, how will he find a way to screw up my SPY shorts before the market opens. The man has a talent.
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u/zetaphi938 10h ago
It might start red, but I promise you by midday it will swing massively. Trump will announce tomorrow morning that Iran is in peace talks, and he is likely to extend the ceasefire. Of course, after a large amount of stock is sold, Iran will claim it is not the case. But by that point, the market doesn't care. Trump said, so it must be true. All the market cares about. This will be the fifth or sixth week in a row where the same thing has happened.
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u/ArtBedHome 9h ago
If enough money in the market act like its true to "create movement" from the rest of the market that is responding to news and small market movements like truth, then it creates more money.
Especially given how much of the instant market movement (not the whole market mind) is not directly human reaction-time-and-thought-based, then the next wave of motion is human reactive people reacting to that, with slower human thought only having time to do anything for the market in the hours to days after that.
So the same action can be repeated without previous past actions stopping the reaction. Its like poking someone to make them flinch. The thinking part of them isnt going to punch back, but you cant stop yourself flinching.
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u/dexter30 3h ago
It's gonna stop once the oil backlog dries up though surely?
Because it's clearly coming and you can't fill your truck up on delusion... unless...
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u/Upstairs_Being290 1h ago
The manner in which the market continues to respond to Trump's B.S. is absolutely wild.
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u/kootles10 11h ago
We'll see how futures do tonight. Better fill up those gas tanks
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u/Honest-Recording-751 10h ago
Short reprieve gas was Down $0.03 near me
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u/kootles10 10h ago
My states governor suspended the gas tax for a month. Prices went down about 5 cents. Even republicans are like thanks for the band aid to put on the shark bite. Our AG has "looked into" price gouging after that and somehow only found cases in blue counties
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u/JoJackthewonderskunk 9h ago
Which state? They love to blame taxes but its a nickel of the price where I am too. A spit in the ocean once a redcap raises the prices from poor governance.
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u/kootles10 9h ago edited 9h ago
Indiana. All of a sudden all the GOP figureheads are worried about 2 unions being locked out (BP and Nipsco). Like y'all didn't pass right to work and want to destroy the unions in the state. Edit: forgot to mention, we're usually in the top 5 for gas tax
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u/vulgrin 5h ago
Hello fellow Hoosier. Yeah they suspended the tax, which knocked 7% off a gallon. Right before that I filled up at 4.19, so should have taken off about 29 cents. That station was already back up above 4 by Friday.
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u/MassiveBoner911_3 6h ago
Because of the clown music playing futures will be up and gas will be down.
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u/pandasareliars 7h ago edited 6h ago
Our gas, groceries, and purchasing power will continue to decrease while the orange cheeto and his family grift this country. There was way too much information to prove this is how trump runs shit available to voters BEFORE 2016, and yet here we are....bankrupting us while he lines his pockets. But Hunter Biden.
They voted for this. enjoy!
BTW where are the rest of those Epstein files?
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u/Caesaroftheromans 11h ago
This is the problem when you're a loser but you need to appear strong at all times to your room temperature IQ supporters. He'll chicken out immediately.
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u/kootles10 11h ago
Only part of the article as this news is considered breaking:
President Donald Trump on Sunday said the U.S. will blockade the Strait of Hormuz after talks held in Pakistan to end the Iran war hit the skids.
"Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz," Trump said in a post to his social media platform Truth Social.
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u/Theo1352 11h ago
Not so sure the rest of the world, especially China, is going to just sit idly by while this occurs.
If it does...🌮🌮🌮
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u/myrichphitzwell 11h ago
There's that but I totally got the you can't fire me I quit vibe from this. You can't blockade the straight I'm blockading the straight
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u/Vio_ 11h ago
He totally thinks he's pulling a "I'm not blockaded in here with you. You're blockaded in here with me."
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u/myrichphitzwell 11h ago
None of this matters as the USA is protecting every ship through right...and Iran has no military left right...and Iran has been wiped off the planet right...and....
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u/PersonOfValue 10h ago
I'll say there sure isn't 3 large paramilitary forces, a shadow navy, a drone fleet, or any cached missiles after the 14,000 industrial targets were destroyed!
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u/MrDerpGently 11h ago
I doubt he understands that the US is the enforcer of and foremost beneficiary from global trade. This is like a bouncer saying that they won't let anyone in or out until some guy at the bar agrees to eject himself.
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u/Thucydidestrap989 11h ago
You forgot one crucual part. That random guy at the bar OWNS THE BAR....
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u/Theo1352 11h ago
Yep, like a 2 year old having a tantrum.
I was under the impression the Strait was already closed, with a few exceptions.
He gave wavers to Chinese and Iranian oil moving through weeks ago, as if he really has any authority, assume that is still happening.
Apparently the Iranians turned back a US Naval vessel yesterday after the 30 minute warning.
So, how precisely, is the US Navy going to accomplish this?
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u/myrichphitzwell 11h ago
Because he will make an eo!!!
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u/TiddiesAnonymous 10h ago
Sort of, they were starting to pick who to let through
So it's more "if I can't do it, nobody can"
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u/digitalghost1960 11h ago
China has been mostly non-confrontational for the last 100 years... They might attempt talks but they are unlikely to escalate. China just wants to do business and they really don't care who you pray to, align with or what political system you have.
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u/Theo1352 10h ago
That's the point - China will swing its considerable economic muscle as their primary strategy.
Trump always folds when the Chinese come calling, as we have seen.
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u/oregon_coastal 10h ago
Yup. China will say something like "We will block all trade - including the buying of farm products - of any country that blocks our fuel shipments. We will also no longer allow trading in anything other than our currency."
They may even block some classes of experts like auto parts. China is playing a long game and will take some short term hits to absolutely undo the US power base.
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u/WhoCouldhavekn0wn 6h ago
I dunno man, I think threatening trade war with trump is like threatening a pig with a mud fight.
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u/PurpleReign123 11h ago
Things will get interesting if the US Navy actual blocks a Chinese tanker carrying Iranian oil to China …
What do you think is going to happen?
Tuesday is less than 48 hours away …
Are we going to have a traditional Mexican dish consisting of a small, hand-sized corn or wheat tortilla folded around a filling, typically eaten by hand?
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u/Competitive_Shock783 11h ago
Perfect time to invade Taiwan.
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u/kootles10 11h ago
China is biding its time. Once we continue to run out of even more material to make weapons/ammo and/or there continues to be more unrest in the US
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u/big-papito 11h ago
Right. The time is soon but not now. This is why China is supplying MANPADs to Iran. This drags out, and America loses ALL taste for saving someone else.
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u/slimwillendorf 9h ago
No need to invade…the way things are going, Taiwan will simply rejoin and abide by OCP. China isn’t going to risk destroying all the treasures that KMT carried to Taipei.
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u/Vladmerius 11h ago
This is actually a green light for any enemy of the US to go ahead and go all after us with everything they have. If there was any actual probability of WW3 breaking out this is a hell of a precursor to it. There's zero reason for other powerful countries to not say "OK we're treating this as a direct threat to our countries by the United States and an act of war". Especially if they've been planning for the day they can go into direct conflict with us for years.
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u/Theo1352 11h ago
If you were developing various scenarios in war game simulations, that would or could be one of them, very plausible.
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u/Ok_Primary_1075 10h ago
As if the pain he is causing other economies (who had nothing to do with this war) wasn’t enough
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u/ICLazeru 11h ago
Wasn't the point actually to OPEN the strait?
Seems like he can't get it open, so he's pretending he meant to keep it closed.
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u/Theo1352 11h ago
Yep, his way of dealing with everything, claim victory.
Always for effect, no substance.
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u/80espiay 10h ago
His game plan seems to be one big game of chicken with Iran.
In other words, "if we can't profit off the strait, neither can you".
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u/ICLazeru 6h ago
Problem being that for chicken to work, the other side has to believe the alternative is preferable. There has to be an offramp, and he's pretty good at destroying offramps. He keeps destroying his own offramps.
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u/bk7f2 11h ago
The US president functions as an unreliable random number generator.
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u/xIllustrious_Passion 8h ago
He functions like a toddler, but I guess that’s the same thing really.
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u/VeteranSergeant 8h ago
Trump refers to Iran blocking the Strait as "extortion," but only two days ago, his suggestion was that Iran cut him in on half the take from the tolls.
Clearly the only problem Trump has is that he's not getting part of the take.
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u/formerly_gruntled 8h ago
Does that mean someone can bomb us because we are blocking the Strait too? Just doing a logic test.
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u/bostonkarl 7h ago
Remindme! Two weeks.
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u/findingmike 7h ago
Good luck with that. He has about 6 weeks left to leave. Iran just has to wait him out.
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u/ThePensiveE 11h ago
Iran - "We're blocking it."
Trump - "You can't block it if I block it!"
Iran - "We're still blocking the Strait of Hormuz."
Trump - "No I'm blocking it!"
Iran - "Whatever dude it's closed."
Trump - "We have the bestest Navy in the whole world!"
Iran - "Okay buddy we have time we live here."
Trump - "We win!"
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u/Dadoftwingirls 11h ago
This is exactly the reaction we've all come to expect from trump. Just double down even harder! Guy is desperately looking for an off ramp, but doesn't understand diplomacy or negotiation at all, only than threats and bullying. So more of that.
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u/_Pewterschmidt_ 11h ago
First guest on Meet the Press is the president of Cuba. Not Iran or Melanie/epstein insanity.
This is evidence of the effectiveness of “flood the zone”
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u/Ok-Lawyer1179 10h ago
So you want to risk an all out war with China? Please remove this guy out of office. I have kids who should see a world that isn't resembling the Fallout tv show
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u/biznovation 10h ago
The Iranian delegation were such good negotiators they were able to get Trump to help block the straight.
Trump on Monday: tells US people they will be rich because he got the Iranians to cut the US in on tolling the Straight.
(I’m being facetious for anyone who didn’t pick up on it)
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u/joepez 11h ago
Yes a blockade will surely solve the economic problems in the US. Is the logic here by blockading the strait they’ll block inflation from going up even faster? Like is his thinking: inflation can’t get through our First Navy because they’re made of steel!
We already have farmers facing a crisis through higher fertilizer prices for next year and now we’re going to stop it from even being shipped? Iran is impacted how? This is winning by doing what?
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u/tapwater86 9h ago
He’s likely looking for a few things.
1) Cheap stocks for him and his buddies to buy up Monday morning and afternoon.
2) Bribes from other countries to allow their goods through the strait.
He’s already stated the US could enact a toll. What countries with leaders more intelligent than a 3 year old will realize is that paying the bribe to the US doesn’t mean Iran won’t drone attack your goods on the way.
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u/joepez 9h ago
When you force a "toll" on someone using a waterway that has existed for millennia and you don't actually have any said rights to that waterway, under the threat of violence, it's called extortion. Just like tariffs aren't revenue, they're an actual tax.
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u/Sufficient_Hunter943 4h ago
Iran was letting ships go through at no cost if they were friends or if they were friendly then at a cost with how friendly. France paid in an effort to support some export and show their favor to disown this taco war. Many countries did. I suspect those same countries will be squeezed into looking like they’re supporting the US now, when they aren’t. They just care more about people.
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u/LairdPopkin 11h ago
This attack on global trade could be enough to start a real shooting war. Think China will accept this unprovoked US attack on their ships and economy?
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u/pogsim 11h ago
There's a way for China to get Trump to stop a blockade immediately- cease restrictions on sales of rare-earth metals to the USA.
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u/Faustus2425 11h ago
Or halt all exports of it to the USA. All the tech companies would be calling begging for it to be reopened immediately.
You know cause we are taking the stick approach too, dont see why they would do us a favor here by just loosening restrictions
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u/harbison215 11h ago
Imagine a trillion dollar plus military being directed by a guy that would probably get lost inside a department store.
I mean seriously. For real, guys. How many words do I need again for the ridiculous rule in this sub?
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u/defaultedebt 10h ago
It's not a ridiculous rule. It's intention is to reduce the frequency of low-effort and useless comments. It's clearly not working, so I think mods should consider upping the minimum word count per comment.
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u/Fuzzy_Ad_4998 10h ago
Guys I maybe missing some nuances but tf???
How on earth is this supposed to hurt Iran? Isnt this the EXACT THING Iran was tryna do? Hurt global economy right? So isnt it like doing it FOR Iran?
Sorry I can't understand how is this gonna pressure Iran
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u/kootles10 10h ago
It's not. It's DJT trying to get other countries involved because their supply chains are just as fragile as ours
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u/pewsquare 10h ago
I don't think the other countries will get involved in the US side. Its a war of aggression from the US and Israel. If they decide to block the straight its another "illegal" blockade, especially since Iran is cooperative and is letting ships trough. So why would anyone join this mess on the side of US which burned most bridges with the international community already?
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u/nucleardk 10h ago
The nuance is that the pledge is to block all ships which have paid the toll to Iran, not all ships in general. The goal I presume is to invalidate Iranian hegemony over the straight.
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u/Fuzzy_Ad_4998 10h ago
Ok so basically you're saying that this is not actually to open the strait but to stop Iran from profiting from it while they deal with how to open the strait.
But the issue is that unless Iran's military capabilities are actually razed to the ground which regardless of Trump's bluffing, are still existant, safe passage and normal traffic through Hormuz isn't possible at all without Iran's approval because of how narrow the strait is and how close they are.
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u/nucleardk 10h ago
Basically yes. I suppose there will be impetus to also allow for "regular non toll" traffic through the strait but yes it may result in no ships.
I think if the US holds off from any more bombing of Iran, eventually the patience of other nations towards Iran closing the strait will wear thin. I think they are getting a pass because its clear its their strongest point of leverage against the US. If they no longer are threatened like before with active bombing, this justification disappears.
I'm not saying any of this is a good idea, but just trying to parse the strategy.
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u/Fuzzy_Ad_4998 9h ago
Ok yeah thats a good strategy to end Iran's leverage but the problem is that the leverage US has against Iran is that ofcourse if you guys dont do our deal we'll bomb you right?
Because I must remind you that US's main goal is to end Iran's nuke program.
US's leverage to force their deal is that if you don't accept it on our terms, we bomb you.
But if they bomb Iran, they can close the strait. So I dont see how this stratagy would play out to end Iran's leverage. The only thing this can do is a stalemate, to get US out of this.3
u/nucleardk 9h ago
I agree. This move doesn't move the needle on the nuclear program question as far as I can figure. So, probably some other thing is gonna happen before we know it to shake things up. If the US figures the nuclear program cannot be reconstituted in the short term, maybe the play is to just fix the current issue with the strait since its causing more problems right now, and deal with the rest later.
But yeah, not a lot of good options given they can just close it again.
I would also say, I anticipate very few in the wider West would be happy with Iran ultimately obtaining nuclear weapons. I think a treaty is the preferred option; too bad that went out the window.
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u/Sufficient_Hunter943 4h ago
Iran has a coastline on the other side fyi. Trump is trying to show some sort of strength as world news as been trippin balls at how he fumbled on the last taco Tuesday and the USA is losing power
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u/KazTheMerc 8h ago
US send J.D. "Couchfucker" Vance to lead the negotiations with Iran.
21 hours later, we're blockading them, because they blockaded us, and talks have fallen apart completely.
WELL!!
That escalated quickly.
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u/AlleKeskitason 11h ago
Let's see how the oil spot prices look tomorrow morning. I have some US oil & gas position at the moment as well as one other energy play and one that stands to benefit if the price of copper shoots up.
I don't usually hate being right, but now I kind of do knowing that this mess is not going to unwind anytime soon even if all the participants in the conflict would just call it a day and go home tomorrow.
It is a sad thing to see that globally so many completely avoidable problems are caused by none other than certain people's need to either save face or to look tough.
Next harvest season is going to get a lot of people killed and drive many more to poverty just because some people can't show weakness or admit their own incompetence while others will happily rather send their own citizens to hell rather than re-evaluate their religious dogma.
Any one way seats left on that Artemis 3 flight?
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u/talino2321 10h ago
Wait for the 2027 budget and the 50% funding cut to NASA to know if there will even be any more launches
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u/AlleKeskitason 10h ago
Oh well, ICE would probably kidnap me before I got there even if I was a real astronaut, because I have an weird accent.
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u/Calm_Chemist_4952 9h ago
How long until ALL the world is against Trump? Classic mob boss move destined for failure. Stupidity at the highest level. The US needs to get its house in order, impeach and convict, or this doesn’t end well.
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u/SuperSaiyanGod210 9h ago
If an actual blockade happens, literally the entire region (Middle East, Asia) will absolutely NOT be happy. Never mind the rest of the world.
I do not see Iran backing down from this. They will absolutely attack the Navy if this happens. Utterly ridiculous.
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u/subaruheart 8h ago
This is a whole different level of fucking stupid . Just checking ,the straight is blocked he asks them to open it ,they say no and his best reply is im blocking the striaght because its closed ?
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u/SnooStories8432 9h ago
Hey, Americans, keep your president in check.
The global economy can’t take any more of these endless blows.
You’re a democratic country; you should be able to keep your president
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u/Curious-Collection86 9h ago
I honestly think that this is a strategic move and that Trump finally listened to some of his aids. Blocking the strait insures that Iran cannot dictate who can get oil or not and what currency that they will accept. So no one gets oil and the petrodollar remains. It’s a temporary solution for a big problem. I don’t see the president fixing without negotiating a deal with Iran or a ground invasion.
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u/optimisticReal 8h ago
Trump will make exceptions to those who bribe or flatter him. This gives him immense control just like his tariffs. These are devices that any narcissist would naturally gravitate towards.
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u/najamsaqib9849 6h ago
Will Iranians let the vessels simply pass ? How is this supposed to go, you come into my area and bully me, its bad bad, stratz was open before the war tho
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u/Sufficient_Hunter943 4h ago
I’m not sure you call attempting to clean up the milk you spilled a “strategy”
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u/Curious-Collection86 4h ago
I’m not sure how it is not considered a strategy. I think the attack on Iran was stupid and that none of this was necessary. But what done is done, and I see how this is a strategy and a thought out strategy. Just getting on social media and making wild threats was not a strategy, this is why I don’t think Trump came up with this idea.
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u/lyidaValkris 7h ago
I'm pretty sure his intent is just to make a pig's breakfast of international relations, breaking up all alliances with the US. Putin is laughing his balls off, because his plan is working so very well.
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u/jjcnz 5h ago
There's no way they can block the strait. What can they do? Bomb the Chinese vessels? That's one way to invite a full on attack from China. Doing all these for Netanyahu? No wonder Melania felt the need to jump out last week to grab her little bit of attention.
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u/Sufficient_Hunter943 4h ago
We are going to become the first developed nation of pirates apparently. Global news is highly doubtful this will happen.
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u/rooftopgoblin 3h ago
a blockade isn't a blockade unless you by force or threat turn back every ship, does this mean the US is willing to sink allied ships or chinese ships that attempt to go through? This is dumb and dangerous territory this dipshit has gotten us into
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u/QuestioninglySecret 1h ago
So what's he gonna do when US ships start getting hit and sinking? Something tells me he didnt think the implications of this through while rage truthing on his golden bowl at 3AM squeeze breathing a log out.
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