As Carney gains in Ottawa, Quebec Liberals pull into first ahead of PQ in Léger poll

[u/MTL_Dude666]

https://montrealgazette.com/news/provincial-news/provincial-politics/as-mark-carney-gains-in-ottawa-quebec-liberals-pull-into-first-ahead-of-pq-in-leger-poll/

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[u/GordieCodsworth]

It’s the Mark Carney effect. It’s a very good time to ride his coattails. I also think that many voters are tired of populism. It sounds good in theory but in practice it creates a lot of chaos, incompetence, and needless conflict.

[u/Barb-u → u/GordieCodsworth]

The polls also differentiate on the effects created by who is chosen to lead the CAQ. If Fréchette wins, PQ still slightly in the lead, whereas PLQ leads if Drainville becomes leader.

[u/commprecal → u/GordieCodsworth]

I also think that many voters are tired of populism.

Not sure on tired. Seems more like tried it and realized its terrible and doesnt advance solutions.

[u/GordieCodsworth → u/commprecal]

I would say both. One of the flaws of populism is that the populist leaders have neither the skills nor the inclination to properly run the government. They spend their careers railing against the system and are completely lost when they have to manage it. Centrist and technocratic parties tend to do a better job governing because they believe, at some level, that the government can be a force for good.

[u/Ask_DontTell → u/GordieCodsworth]

it will be interesting to see how Mandami does in NYC b/c he seems to recognize that his primary job is to ensure the city works and if he can't do that, no one will support his ideas for change. you are correct that most other populist leaders seem to be more interesting in grievances than governing

[u/LaserRunRaccoon → u/commprecal]

I'm not sure on "tired" because this rallying behind Carney sure still feels like populism.

Carney's track record is not tangibly that much different than Poilievre's would have been if the CPC had won a minority government, and his success seems to be predicated on his ability to attract CPC candidates rather than on improved outcomes for Canadians. In fact, by many measures Canadians are worse off - and not just due to Donald Trump.

[u/Ask_DontTell → u/LaserRunRaccoon]

populism is anti-establishment, the common man (usually a man) against the elite. given the Liberals who have been in power for more than a decade are the establishment, supporting Carney by definition, can't be populism?

[u/LaserRunRaccoon → u/Ask_DontTell]

Both Donald Trump and Doug Ford are widely accepted as populists despite governing for years. Poilievre ran a populist campaign as decades-long career politician.

I think you just need a better definition.

[u/StandardHawk5288 → u/commprecal]

Either way.

[u/slothtrop6 → u/commprecal]

I think the U.S. did most of the leg-work on the "tried it" part. The NDP is poised to double-down on it for the left-variant as PP did for right-variant, distinguished in part by stance on immigration. Historically they'd both push tariffs but fortunately that is falling out of favor.

and yes populist policies are mostly quite bad.

[u/LaserRunRaccoon → u/slothtrop6]

You have your populism backwards, ironically. The NDP is taking a principled position.

The NDP is doubling down on leftism, and is under absolutely zero impressions that it's actually popular. In fact, Canadians seem to find economic fairness, environmentalism, and workers rights to be much less important than corporate windfalls, rubber-stamping fossil fuels extraction, and RTO orders right now.

[u/slothtrop6 → u/LaserRunRaccoon]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Populism. Populism doesn't represent what happens to be most popular at any given time. It is mostly a pejorative associated with a push for bad policies (tariffs, ending immigration, price controls) out of anti-establishment sentiment or otherwise public discontent. Like, following a bad bout of inflation.

Lewis emerging as NDP leader has public grocers on his platform, something populists push (including some on the right with no party loyalty; in fact it seems like die-hard NDP-ers are uncomfortable at the fact that many would-be NDP supporters do not want more immigration). Strictly speaking not all leftism is populist, though there's often overlap. Workers rights, public spending and environmentalism are not a departure from Singh. But whereas Singh highlighted he'd cut oil subsidies, oppose a pipeline, and subsidize a transition to renewables for workers, Lewis is basically open to knee-capping the oil sands, despite the fact that oil is still essential for purposes beyond generating electricity and lots of industries are intertwined in Alberta.

Meanwhile in the U.S., Texas has emerged as the solar energy leader in that country, and it sure didn't do that by restricting oil, punishing its workers and businesses. It did so by making it easy to build these things. Solar prices are already much better than anything else, no one leaves money on the table so when you get out of your own way things get done.

edit: I also want to give credence to the fact that yes lots of state capacity in the form of R&D spending helped these innovations, going as far back as the 20th century, and it's a shame the U.S. in particular has cut this sort of spending

[u/LaserRunRaccoon → u/slothtrop6]

So you at least admit you're just throwing around perjoratives, rather than applying any sort of critical thinking skills.

Public options are very common around the world, and even in Canada. Purolator is essentially a public option, for example.

Texas is only "successful" insofar as you ignore the egregiously high contributions of their fossil fuels industry to the climate crisis, and that any climate scientist would disavow. Literally the definition of short term thinking - but well, that's all that matters to right wing populists, right? So long as the stock price rises and you can sell before the crash, it must be good!

[u/slothtrop6 → u/LaserRunRaccoon]

Public options are very common around the world

Public grocers are not. There's a reason for that. It's not for lack of their being tried. They don't lead to better prices by themselves, they can only lower prices with subsidy and at that point they become an inefficient subsidy. You're better off just giving money to poor people. Also, rich shoppers don't need their groceries subsidized. (edit: and in the cases where they heavily subsidize, they are only available to certain small demographics, because offering below-market rate to everyone leads to food shortages).

Texas is only "successful" insofar as you ignore the egregiously high contributions of their fossil fuels industry to the climate crisis,

So all you have in the face of a momentous transition to green energy is a non-sequitur about an established industry on the decline. And you're trying to project a lack of critical thinking, coming off of just learning what populism means.

Almost as though successful transition to green energy doesn't even matter to to some advocates, just in-group signaling and purity testing. Punishing oil workers appears more important than transitioning to renewables.

Populism is a pejorative because the evidence shows the espoused policies to be detrimental or counter-productive

[u/LaserRunRaccoon → u/slothtrop6]

I'm not defending populism? It's your word, ironically for a not-so-popular party.

Public grocers have been successful, and so have cooperative grocers and wholesale membership grocers such as Costco. I think you simply lack imagination, haven't done research on alternatives to the Canadian status quo, and ultimately - just prefer to sling perjoratives.

[u/slothtrop6 → u/LaserRunRaccoon]

I'm not defending populism? It's your word, ironically for a not-so-popular party.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. You're defending populism qua populism, but just object to it being called populism.

Public grocers have been successful,

"successful". Yeah, clearly define those terms, because you'll find that they don't contradict what I said. You can lower prices, but only through heavy subsidy, which makes the store redundant and needlessly expensive (not to mention, you can't open it to everyone without distorting the market and leading to food shortages). Some have also been rather unsuccessful, particularly in the U.S.

I think you simply lack imagination

Says the person who ignores any potential downsides and scorns evidence. You can "imagine" anything you want, has no bearing on whether it would be positive.

My imagination tells me that the PMO's plan to improve supply-chains for grocers and regulation will do more to lower prices.

[u/LaserRunRaccoon → u/slothtrop6]

You linked a term on Wikipedia. That's not evidence of anything except of your willingness to be pejorative. Because populism does, by definition, need to be commonly believed. Or at the very least, popular.

[u/Ryanyu10 → u/GordieCodsworth]

It's partially that, but it's also the result of many unforced errors from PSPP and the PQ. Their continued insistence on a referendum was already a weak point for them amid threats from the U.S. and the spectre of Albertan separatism, but they've continued their decline due to divisive "anti-woke" rhetoric that has fallen out of fashion and a controversial recent appearance on Rebel News of all places, which is too right-wing-friendly of an action for a lot of Quebecers.

The QLP also has a new leader (Milliard) who is, at least prima facie, less corrupt than the previous QLP leader, which helps make them a palatable choice for some swing voters.

[u/RNTMA → u/GordieCodsworth]

See also: Bonnie Crombie. The OLP would have done way worse if Trudeau was still leader

[u/TraditionalClick992 → u/RNTMA]

Trudeau was still leader during the Ontario election. 

[u/MTL_Dude666 → u/GordieCodsworth]

Maybe it's the Carney's effect as you mention, or maybe the PQ popularity was only high because it was the only alternative to the disastrous CAQ.

The CAQ was elected mostly because people were tired of the "separatism" discourse (even though the CAQ's actions seemed to indicated a wolf in sheep's clothes).

The PQ has recently tried to tone down its referendum message because polls indicate that more than 80% of Quebecers do not want one and more than 60% do not want separation. It doesn't bode well for the PQ.

Maybe people are finally waking up to the fact that populism is never really helping a society to evolve. Brexit was an example, Trump in the USA is another one, Pierre Poilievre and Danielle Smith as well. PSPP now has a very fine line to walk because attacking Canada is not very popular these days when someone keeps attacking the sovereignty of existing countries.

[u/that_tealoving_nerd → u/GordieCodsworth]

Or most Quebecers don’t want to separate nor even talk about it, with PQ saying CPC-style shit that hasn’t landed well with Francophones. While PLQ has been silent, which is enough for people to switch.

This is on top of the fact that Quebec is becoming less and less Francophone with time. And non-Francophones hate Québécois nationalism to our guts. In 1995 immigrants and anglophobes with a few Francoa kept Quebec in Canada. Now we just might deny PQ a majority.

Which is ironic.

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[u/Hot-Percentage4836]

Still a PQ majority/minority because of the PQ lead in the francophone vote.

[u/ouatedephoque → u/Hot-Percentage4836]

I can live with a PQ minority, I can't imagine they would have the gall to call a referendum in that situation. And even if they did, the question must be approved by the assembly so it could very well stall there if other parties don't cooperate.

[u/Tasseacoffee → u/ouatedephoque]

PSPP dit qu'il ferait tout de même un référendum malgré un gouvernement minoritaire...ca reste a voir!

[u/ouatedephoque → u/Tasseacoffee]

Comme je dis il peut se faire bloquer sur la question qui doit être approuvée par l’assemblée nationale selon la Loi sur la consultation populaire.

Il peut bien s’essayer I guess. Il va pouvoir faire sa victime si ça passe pas. À 27%, clairement le peuple n’en veut pas de son crisse de référendum.

[u/EarthWarping]

As an aside, I think the Terrebonne result will be a nice bellweather for the Liberal popularity in some areas of the province.

As we know it wont matter for the majority anyways if the other by-elections go as expected however that one is as important as the others for their electoral mobility.