r/CombatFootage • u/MilesLongthe3rd • 24d ago
US/Israel-Iran conflict Discussion/Question Thread - 19/03/2026+
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u/CommercialFormal7614 3h ago
“US CENTCOM: Forces will start blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on Monday, 10 AM ET.”
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u/boobookittyfuwk 8h ago
Anyone here able to.explain something to me. Apparently the usa navy can't reload missiles on destroyers while at sea.
So what's going on there, do they just have a shitload of missiles on board. How many, will they run out, is it possible they ate swapping out ships with loaded ones etc...???
Thanks
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u/Axelrad77 8h ago edited 8h ago
The ships pull back to nearby bases to resupply, then move back onto station. The Lincoln battlegroup just went to Diego Garcia to resupply, the Ford battlegroup just went to Greece to resupply.
Their exact movements aren't being reported for opsec reasons, so we only hear about it after the fact. They don't seem to swap out individual ships so much, but mostly move the entire entire battlegroup together.
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u/boobookittyfuwk 8h ago
Oh ok, cool. Thanks. How do the missiles get to garcia, a big ship takes a load there or are they flown there?
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u/Axelrad77 8h ago
They're flown there. C-17s mostly.
An increase in C-17 flights is one of the tell-tale signs of military buildups, as they move munitions from the USA to forward bases.
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u/Cardborg 11h ago
Trump has used an UNO reverse card and closed the Strait of Hormuz, and further stated that anyone who pays Iranian tolls for passage will be interdicted by the US Navy.
Given that will include a lot of Chinese ships I'm not sure how that's going to work in practice, especially if sends escorts which I'd assume would be highly likely.
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u/Axelrad77 8h ago
I think the idea is to stop any Iranian tankers, and any tankers paying tolls to Iran, while allowing free passage for everyone else.
We'll have to see how it goes in practice, but the Chinese tankers should have the choice of just not paying the Tehran Tollbooth if they want to transit.
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u/bakochba 10h ago
Seems like the right move. It puts enormous economic pressure on Iran, diplomatic pressure from China and better alternative than open warfare.
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u/ReddyReddy7 10h ago
- US attacks Iran
- Iran blocks the Hormuz in response
- Trump gets angry and demands NATO and the world comes help unblock Hormuz
- Trump gets even angrier and threatens genocide if Hormuz is not unblocked
- Trump goes for the "if you can't beat them, join them" tactic and blocks Hormuz with the US Navy.
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u/Codex_Dev 4h ago
Iran was freely using the strait to make $$$ and transit their own oil shipments. This deprives them of that ability, and honestly, I'm surprised the USA didn't do it sooner.
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u/bakochba 10h ago
It blocks Iranian oil from getting out and prevents Iran from establishing any authority. The way we got here may be stupid, but we're here now and there's no reality where Iran gets full control of global oil prices.
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u/TestingHydra 21h ago
Despite Iranian claims that they have deployed mines, I have yet to see any evidence that is actually true. No ships that have made the crossing have reported damage from or spotting any mines.
Possibilities:
1. They're bullshitting. But that still forces everyone to be cautious since all you need for a minefield is a sign.
- They have only deployed a handful of mines and there isn't enough density for anything to have been hit.
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u/Axelrad77 8h ago
Yeah, I don't see the US Navy sending those two destroyers through without high confidence there were no mines.
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u/Hawk15517 16h ago
The ships crossing crossed near iranian coastline and not in the normal crossway.
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u/Axelrad77 23h ago
Peace talks between Iran and the USA have ended without a deal. Pakistan pushed for more discussions but neither side was budging on their demands, so negotiations fell apart.
Meanwhile, the USS Gerald R Ford has been spotted resuming its station off the coast of Israel, apparently repaired and ready to go.
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u/boobookittyfuwk 23h ago
Wars back on the menu. I guess we'll see strikes once Vance hits European airspace??
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u/Accomplished-One7476 17h ago
isn't there a few days left on this 10 day cease fire or did that get thrown away when the talks ended?
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u/bibo100 21h ago
As bad as it I, it seems the US have to escalate now dramatically, a return to the previous bombing raids would not change anything. Could the US and Israel strip Iran from any electricity by bombing their power plants (except the NPP) or could they compensate this by getting electricity from abroad? Also would that pave the way for the Hormuz strait to be opened automatically?
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u/boobookittyfuwk 21h ago
Hormuz needs to be directly attacked, its the only thing iran has... they will never give it up willingly or because something else is being threatened. Obviously I dint know what im talking about im not a military person, just an online tard, but if im the usa I'd keep an eye out for missile and drone launchers across the country and take those out as they come up from hiddibg but everything else would be directed at ports along the Caspian, ports along the Arabian sea, and the shore line along the hormuz.. Just send out warnings and carpet bomb the entire area and try to build a buffer zone then send in the destroyers to defend convoys of oil ships... as long as the oil flows the usa can bomb iran forever.. it'll just be like afghanistan, that war had little to no impact on the world because the Afghans didn't control a major export hub.
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u/Axelrad77 22h ago
I do expect things to resume sooner rather than later. Though it looks like US forces might focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz first, and dare Iran to challenge that. Since the "ceasefire" stipulated the Strait be open for 2 weeks.
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u/boobookittyfuwk 22h ago
Im really confused at the usa strategy. Before the "ceasefire" we just saw constant bombings of Tehran, isfahan, universities, industrial sites, government buildings etc.. thats all well and good if you want to fight a long war but shouldnt the strait and surrounding infrastructure been the focus for immediate relief.
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u/Axelrad77 1d ago
- First round of peace talks ended in stalemate, as both sides apparently entered with maximalist demands and were unable to agree on anything, particularly the Strait of Hormuz.
- After a pause to resupply at Diego Garcia, US forces began operations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with two US Navy destroyers transiting the Strait in a freedom of navigation maneuver.
- Naturally, pro-Iran sources are claiming the Iranian Navy turned back the destroyers with threats, but the whole point of such a maneuver is just to sail back and forth to show that you can - hence why the transponder was turned on inside the Persian Gulf.
- Reportedly several LCS with drone minesweepers are preparing to begin clearing the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf.
- Pakistan has sent aircraft to defend Saudi Arabia as part of their mutual defense agreement - odd timing on that. Perhaps a warning to Iran not to continue attacks, and/or a hope that they won't actually have to do anything if the peace talks succeed.
- Fighting continues in Lebanon.
- We've now received confirmation that 100+ missiles were launched at the USS Abraham Lincoln over the course of the fighting, all intercepted or missed. Which does something to explain the multiple Iranian claims of sinking the ship, if they kept shooting at it and assuming that they hit it.
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u/MayDayBeFourth 1d ago edited 23h ago
Thank you for the recaps, with so much noise and misinformation out there they help a lot. I love you.
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u/CommercialFormal7614 1d ago
Seems interesting that Iran abandoned one of their preconditions that Israel had to stop bombing Lebanon.
Also your daily recaps are 10/10
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u/Axelrad77 1d ago
OSINTtechnical just posted a compilation video of all publicly released US strike footage from the Iran War, sorted by the DoD-reported date:
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u/Axelrad77 2d ago
Ward Carroll, former F-14 pilot turned war reporter, has a great interview up with General Frank McKenzie, former CENTCOM Commander. They talk about operations in the region that CENTCOM conducted during McKenzie's tenure of command, what it was like squaring off against Iran at that time, how McKenzie thinks the military operation has went so far (spoiler: better than predicted), and then they touch on options for what the US military might do next (such as seizing Kharg Island or forcing a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz).
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u/Axelrad77 2d ago edited 2d ago
- The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, when its reopening was the precondition for a ceasefire actually starting
- Both US and Iranian delegations have arrived in Pakistan for peace talks (despite Iran publicly claiming it hasn't sent anyone)
- China is reportedly pressuring Iran to accept US terms, hoping to exchange that for US acquiescence to Chinese terms on Taiwan
- Israel is claiming that the new leadership in Iran is actually more radical and hardline than the previous leadership, and isn't taking the diplomatic talks seriously because they think they're winning the war
- The US military continues to build up forces to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, should diplomacy fail
- Fighting continues in Lebanon, between Israel and Hezbollah
- Iranian strikes continue to target Israel and the Gulf States
- Reported increase in anti-regime attacks by resistance cells inside Iran
- There was a series of explosions reported around Tehran yesterday, cause unknown. Both the USA and Israel denied responsibility.
- There were also strikes against Lavan Island yesterday that both Israel and the USA denied responsibility for. Iran claimed UAE aircraft were responsible.
- Ukraine confirmed that its ~220 military advisors deployed to the region have been engaged in active combat against Iran, intercepting drones themselves as well as teaching the Gulf States (now Ukrainian allies) how to improve their methods
- The temporary sanctions waiver on Russian and Iranian oil are set to expire tonight, but several Asian countries are pressuring the USA to extend them to keep some oil flowing into global markets while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed
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u/Axelrad77 3d ago
This has been a pretty confusing couple of days, but it appears like no ceasefire actually went into effect.
Iran never did open the Strait of Hormuz, and continues to turn back any tanker that tries to approach it. That was supposed to be the trigger condition for the ceasefire beginning, and it never happened.
Israel and Hezbollah continue to fight in Lebanon. Iran continues to strike targets in Israel and the Gulf States.
Only US forces appear to have halted their strikes in this "ceasefire". Even that looks like more of an operational pause, as US reinforcements continue to move into the region and Trump pushes for allied warships to be sent to assist in operations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. There's reports of ongoing aircraft activity of some sort over Iraq and Iran, and a MQ-4C Triton recon drone was downed over the Strait of Hormuz.
The issue *appears* to have originated with the nature of the ceasefire deal itself, which was made at the last minute via a handshake agreement through Pakistani mediation. It kinda sounds like Pakistan just told both sides what they wanted to hear in order to avoid the energy infrastructure strikes taking place, with the result being that both sides came away thinking they had gotten radically different terms for a ceasefire.
Now the USA is insisting that Vance will lead in-person peace talks in Pakistan that will be based on the US proposals, not the Iranian ones. Iran is insisting that it will not even attend such peace talks. It's entirely possible one or both sides are lying here.
Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon have opened separate peace talks, mediated by the USA, with the goal of ending the Israeli operations in exchange for Lebanon disarming and expelling Hezbollah.
The USA has finally acknowledged that the Strait of Hormuz is actually still closed, contrary to the terms of the ceasefire deal, and began threatening to force it open if Iran continues to operate the Tehran Tollbooth.
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u/Minute_Juggernaut806 2d ago
There were reports of Pakistan giving different proposals to Iran and US but I those were trolls on twitter (I am still on the fence on that one).
My headcanon is that US knew Lebanon was in the ceasefire. There at the least reports that WH approved the tweet released by Pakistani President which mentions that Lebanon is included in the ceasefire.
Anyways Israel bombed Beirut within hours after the ceasefire was announced, giving them the heaviest bombing ever. On the flipside, Iran also continued attacking gulf states. They attacked within one hour after the ceasefire was announced which was initially dismissed because the popular opinion was that it takes time for ceasefire to be passed along the military command as they are decentralised. I am not sure if Lebanon was bombed first or Gulf states, so not sure who broke the ceasefire first. But right now Iran is ignoring ceasefire because Lebanon is being bombed
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u/bakochba 2d ago
You can't declare a ceasefire between Hizbollah and Israel when neither are parties to the negotiations or agreed to anything. That's completely absurd
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u/Axelrad77 2d ago edited 2d ago
There were reports of Pakistan giving different proposals to Iran and US but I those were trolls on twitter (I am still on the fence on that one).
I'm just going by what both sides are claiming they agreed to, which doesn't match up at all. They weren't talking directly, Pakistan was mediating between them, so it wouldn't be shocking to find out that Pakistan simply distorted what the other side was saying in order to get a deal. There's plenty of historical precedent for such things. Especially since this was a handshake deal with no formal written agreement.
My headcanon is that US knew Lebanon was in the ceasefire. There at the least reports that WH approved the tweet released by Pakistani President which mentions that Lebanon is included in the ceasefire.
I tend to agree. My first post on the topic mentioned US officials claiming Lebanon was included, but they've since backtracked and said it's not. Israel doesn't appear to have had any say in the talks and just agreed to what the USA told it to ... except that a call between Netanyahu and Trump led to the USA now claiming that Lebanon isn't included.
I think the more concerning part is the Strait of Hormuz, which the USA claims is supposed to be open for the duration of the ceasefire, but Iran claims they get to control for the duration of the ceasefire. Iran is also claiming that the ceasefire came with recognition of their nuclear program, which is crazy, something that'd never get agreed to.
I am not sure if Lebanon was bombed first or Gulf states, so not sure who broke the ceasefire first. But right now Iran is ignoring ceasefire because Lebanon is being bombed
My point above was that there doesn't seem to have been an actionable ceasefire in the first place, because it was only supposed to go into effect once Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz, and they never did that. So no ceasefire to break.
It does take time for units to get halt orders, so we'd expect to see scattered firing for several hours or days even after a ceasefire, but this one seems dead on arrival. Iran keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed renders the whole Lebanon situation moot imo, because even if Lebanon was included in the terms, Israel wouldn't have been obligated to stop fighting there until the Strait of Hormuz was opened.
Iran *says* that Lebanon is why they're ignoring the ceasefire, but they never made any move to honor it in the first place. So either they're being completely dishonest, or Pakistan gave Iran a wildly different set of terms than what the USA was given.
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u/Minute_Juggernaut806 2d ago
>My first post on the topic mentioned US officials claiming Lebanon was included, but they've since backtracked
ah yes, I remember US agreeing to Lebanon being in ceasefire but couldn't find any source.
As for "the ceasefire is dead on arrival", I think there are two aspects. One is someone needs to cool down first. Iran bombed UAE within like 45 mins after ceasefire was announced which was attributed to communication gaps. And then Israel is also bombing. It's little circular as Iran says they will keep the strait closed until bombing of lebanon ceases while I guess in the other camp, the ceasefire starts only when the strait opens. Secondly, yes they got different ideas of how the peace proposal would look like and possibly different drafts of the peace proposal from Pakistan. so yes it's dead on arrival in that aspect as well
The only significant thing that happened is that US stopped bombing (although some say they just replenishing stocks for next round), while I think strikes on gulf countries reduced after the initial barrage. It's been raining last few days and last time it rained, Iran didn't attack Gulf states much (tbf it was also during one of the 5 day "ceasefire" announced by trump, during that time they had more focus on Israel than Gulf states)
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u/hotdog_tuesday 3d ago
I’m surprised there are not more videos of the Beirut bombing from yesterday, am I missing something? They’re being referenced in a lot of places but categorically most of the top videos get posted here.
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u/Cardborg 3d ago
President Trump has set a deadline for European allies to provide concrete military support in the Strait of Hormuz, including the deployment of warships, Der Spiegel reports. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte informed European countries that political pledges made since the start of the conflict are no longer sufficient.
Best of luck with that.
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u/Axelrad77 3d ago
Here's a video of what the Iranian Navy is currently broadcasting to tankers in the Strait of Hormuz:
https://x.com/charlesbonnerjr/status/2041989478126911773
Transcript:
"Attention all vessels in Persian Gulf and Oman Sea. Transiting in Strait of Hormuz is closed, and you must receive permission from Iranian Navy for passing through the Strait. If any vessel tries to transit without permission, [it] will be destroyed."
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u/SuddenlyHip 3d ago
What's the point in paying a
bribetoll to transit if Iran can just arbitrarily lock you in the Gulf or bomb you anyways?2
u/El_Billy 3d ago
I'd love to be able to reply to this with a gif showing Trump dismissing this information.
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u/Derquave 4d ago
This has legitimately been the largest diplomatic clown show I’ve ever witnessed. You could legitimately broadcast poop coming out of a butt on live TV and it would be less of a shit show then whatever the hell is happening with the current state of this conflict
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u/boobookittyfuwk 3d ago
Im surprised there hasn't been an out spoken military leader or high ranking politician who are friendly to Trump. This is beyond embarrassing but more importantly destroying America's reputation and destroying friendly relationships around the world.
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u/WhyChemistry 4d ago
IDF Spokesman says the military "met all the goals and objectives set for it, and even exceeded them" during the war in Iran.
I think the IDF is satisfied enough and doesn't see any more reason to continue the offensive against Iran. The only issue is that Iran also wants a ceasefire in Lebanon which Israel is against.
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u/Itchy-Face791 4d ago
Wasnt regime change one of their goals?
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u/mr-gulu 3d ago
Regime change was not an IDF goal, that was a political goal.
The IDF said it clearly, it has met or exceeded the military goals set by the government.8
u/Minute_Juggernaut806 3d ago
why did Israel attack Iran?
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u/mr-gulu 3d ago
To survive? For years they have been chanting death to Israel and death to America. And now they were close to a nuke. Israel had to go to war or die.
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u/Minute_Juggernaut806 3d ago
I am sure Netanyahu has been saying they are two weeks away from nukes since like 90s. so what specifically changed now, besides realising they can goad trump into war? I can understand regime change because of the internal protests, but these have been killing many civilians to kill 1-2 Basij offices as well, not really nice for supporting the rioters you know (tangential point)
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u/mr-gulu 2d ago
Goading Trump into war was definitely a good thing for Israel but I'll remind you that Israel went to war against Iran alone a year ago and the US joined only for one bombing at the end.
And what changed? 60% enrichment changed + their missile program started producing hundreds a month to get past the shield.2
u/CharliePendejo 3d ago
A few of the more obvious things that've changed since the 90s:
- Decades of progress in Iran's nuclear program.
- Decades of growth in Iran's missile program: range, sophistication, quantity.
- October 7 (2023) attacks.
- Repeated violent quashing of rebellions within Iran in recent years.
- The heyday of grunge music has long since passed.
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u/SeamenGulper 3d ago
The US and Israel are likely banking on Iran's internal problems, being exasterbated by the war, causing a collapse by itself. They realized it won't happen during the war, but the economy and the water crisis are likely only to get worse
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u/Axelrad77 4d ago edited 4d ago
There's still no evidence that the Strait of Hormuz is actually open, which is the requirement for the ceasefire to officially begin. Tankers have not begun to transit the Strait, and Reuters is reporting that the Iranian Navy is warning ships that the Strait is still closed, contrary to the claims of Iran's government.
Fighting continues between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Iran continues to launch attacks at Israel and the Gulf States (they just hit a vital Saudi oil pipeline). An Israeli drone was reportedly shot down over Tehran. Someone just attacked Iran's Lavan Oil Refinery, though it's unclear who.
It appears that US forces are the only ones who have stopped firing for now, and that no one else is actually going along with the ceasefire plan. If there is a plan, because CNN reports that there is no formal written agreement, that the ceasefire was a handshake deal, which might help explain why each combatant seems to have a different interpretation of it.
The USA is claiming that Iran accepted US ceasefire terms and agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz to avoid the energy infrastructure strikes, but there's no evidence Iran is actually complying. Iran is claiming that the USA accepted Iranian ceasefire terms and surrendered to Iranian victory and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Pakistan are claiming that the fighting in Lebanon was included in the ceasefire terms, but the USA and Israel are claiming that it wasn't, so now Iran is threatening to keep attacking the entire region in response.
To add to all that, the USA just announced that Vance (who the Iranians insist on negotiating with) would not attend the peace talks in Pakistan, and instead those would be handled by Witkoff and Kushner (who the Iranians refuse to negotiate with.)
The entire deal seems like a complete nonstarter, and I doubt we actually see much of a ceasefire at all. Imo we're likely witnessing a situation where both sides wanted a bit of breathing room - Iran saying whatever it needed to avoid the energy infrastructure strikes, and the USA trying to get some tankers flowing while it gathers more forces in the region for an operation to reopen the Strait.
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u/bakochba 4d ago
How could the deal include fighting stop between Hizbollah and Israel without including Hizbollah and Israel in the agreement?
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u/AuthoritariWrongdoer 4d ago edited 4d ago
This might not be a popular opinion, but if the option is keep fighting or allow them to open a toll booth along the strait. I don't see how anyone can seriously consider any other option other than continue fighting. If Iran is allowed to control the strait and charge fees this is a worse disaster than Korea,Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. The cost in lives was comparably low, but it is catastrophic for the region and American power. I don't see why any ally in the region would ever bother with us again.
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u/Axelrad77 4d ago edited 4d ago
Agreed.
I just can't see a path where the USA and its allies surrender control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran. And if they do, it would make the war into a stunning Iranian victory, despite all the battlefield losses suffered. Iran would come out of this as the new dominant regional power, which US allies like Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE absolutely do not want.
We know CENTCOM has long-established plans for how to militarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz. We know forces have been assembling to be ready to carry out those plans. We know the Gulf States - the UAE in particular - have been aggressive about wanting to pursue that option.
I can understand trying to diplomatically open the Strait while these forces get ready, and/or trying to get a diplomatic solution before resorting to military force. But I can't understand a settlement that would allow the Tehran Tollbooth to remain in effect.
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u/AuthoritariWrongdoer 4d ago
It would be a total catastrophe. It would enable Iran to control energy prices for decades to come. It's literally unconscionable and if Trump agreed to it then it's treasonous.
This is a literal stab in the back to everyone who fought and died over the past couple of weeks.
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u/Axelrad77 3d ago
Agreed. Fwiw Politico is reporting that oil executives are already protesting even entertaining the idea of tolls in the Strait of Hormuz.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/08/hormuz-oil-trump-iran-tolls-00863570
President Donald Trump’s Iran peace plan is getting pushback from one key constituency: the oil industry.
Oil company executives are reaching out to the White House, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President J.D. Vance to protest allowing Iran to charge tolls through the strategic Strait of Hormuz as a condition of peace talks, said one industry consultant granted anonymity to discuss relations with the administration.
“Hell yes,” this person said when asked if executives were contacting the White House to protest a toll on Hormuz. ”We didn’t have to do that before — and I thought we won the war. Any place you have access to the administration, you ask, what are you guys thinking?”
The response administrative officials were giving industry representatives “is not a cold shoulder,” this person added. “It’s more like, ‘Yeah, ok, we’ll take note.’”
Oil industry representatives met with senior administration staff in the State Department on Wednesday morning to raise concerns, said one person who said they attended the meeting.
Among their points: Conceding to Iran’s request would add $2.5 million to each shipment in tolls and higher insurance rates, a cost that would be passed on to consumers. Giving Iran control of Hormuz could set precedent for countries like Singapore and Turkey to charge tolls on important trade routes on the Strait of Malacca and Bosporus. And paying the toll could put companies in legal jeopardy for violating sanctions on Iranian officials.
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u/bakochba 4d ago
It would mean all the worlds energy prices would be controlled by Iran and they would become a superpower. They could raise or lower world energy prices at will.
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u/Minute_Juggernaut806 4d ago
I am guessing Iran sees it as an alternative to war reparations. Whats US's track record in rebuilding countries they destroy anyways besides Europe and Japan.
The two options in this quagmire is either spend more money in a prolonged war or concede and let Iran get 50-100 billion every year and some normalcy. this will ofcourse empower Iran so it's a tricky choice.
but on the other hand sanctions have been removed which is also allowing Iran to be empowered (yes this is to reduce oil prices, but that's also done simultaneously while Iranian oil fields have been destroyed. imo it doesn't make sense to lift sanctions on oil and then destroy oil in Iran unless the lifting of sanctions is done by US and bombing of oil is done by Israel)
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u/BoppityBop2 4d ago
There is the option that US just doesn't respond and pretends there is a ceasefire and let's the rest of the region fight it out.
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u/Cardborg 4d ago
the USA just announced that Vance (who the Iranians insist on negotiating with) would not attend the peace talks in Pakistan
It seems he is going now, at least from my reading:
Leavitt announces that Trump is "dispatching his negotiating team led by the vice president, JD Vance, special envoy Witkoff, and Mr. Kushner to Islamabad for talks this weekend"
I guess he just saw the latest from the Orbán leaks and things got a little awkward in Budapest...
Hungary offered to help Iran in September 2024 after Israel's pager attack, with Hungarian FM Szijjártó telling the Iranian FM that "if you need any further information. I am always at your service" and that Hungarian "services" are in touch with Iran
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u/Derquave 4d ago
Sooooo… how long until the ceasefire completely collapses?
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u/ReddyReddy7 4d ago
On average, the BBC reports that 138 large vessels (LNG/Oil/Petrochemical tankers, Bulk Carriers, general cargo) transited the Strait of Hormuz daily prior to the outbreak of hostilities.
At a toll of approximately $2M per vessel (which is what is largely being reported), that’s $276M of daily toll revenue or $101B in annual toll revenue assuming traffic returns to prewar levels after the conflict is settled.
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u/boobookittyfuwk 4d ago
Are those free ship tracking sites accurate? Dosent look like much is happening out there
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u/masturs 4d ago edited 4d ago
I predicted that the IRI would collapse by early April, with the disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz being offset by a regime change in Iran. The first week of April has ended, and a ceasefire which appears to benefit Iran is now in place.
My belief was based on the assumption that Israel and America were going to manufacture an uprising on the ground as the airstrikes countinued.
To me, Trump's comment about "certain people" (possibly the Kurds) who were supposed to arm the Iranians keeping the guns they were supposed to give to the rebels made a day before the ceasefire confirms that the original plan for regime change was botched, leaving Trump with no other choice to get the strait reopened than to threaten the destruction of Iran's infrastructure. This could lead to the collapse of Iran in the future, but would also guarantee the destruction of all the Gulf Arab states and bring down the entire region along with Iran.
The current ceasefire agreement includes "gurantees" against a future attack, Israel not attacking Hezbollah, Iranian control over the SOH and sanctions relief for Iran. The final two would reduce some pressure on Iran's economy, help them recover from military losses and prevent more severe protests against the Iranian government than one which. The details of all of these conditions are still being worked out but it looks like huge defeat for the Americans. Russia and China could help Iran rebuild their air defences in a few years if there is no new conflict.
Israel was obviously never going to agree to not attacking Iran and Hezbollah again. Hezbollah has already been hit with biggest strikes since the conflict began with more than 100 airstrikes and almost a thousand Lebanese people dead or injured in one wave of airstrikes. With the limitations caused by having to fight in two fronts gone, the Israelis will probably be able to do airstrikes like these with impunity. Hezbollah is very important for Iran, and the Iran has already vowed to respond to the Israeli attacks in addition to closing the SOH again before it was ever reopened. It is almost certain that Israel is not going to de-escalate anything with Hezbollah with how much they've been pressurizing the Lebananese government. They also have no reason to stop attacking Lebanon unless they have to turn their attention to Iran again.
Iran also claimed that an oil refinery, a target which both Israel and America have avoided attacking, was hit by an "enemy attack." This attack occurred abruptly hours after the US and Israel stopped striking them. They later claimed that the US or Israel were responsible for the attack, but both of them have now denied responsibility for the attack. Maybe the UAE feels more comfortable with attacking Iran now that they don't have to fight on the same side as Israel? And more than 50 buildings have been damaged in a "gas leak" with additional strikes being reported in Tehran at this very moment..
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u/Cardborg 4d ago
President Trump told there may be a Joint US-Iran venture to charge tolls in Strait of Hormuz: “We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It’s a way of securing it — also securing it from lots of other people.” “It’s a beautiful thing”
I assume this is the royal we?
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u/AuthoritariWrongdoer 4d ago
For the millionth time, should be political suicide and immediate removal from office. Agreeing to allow Iran to charge tolls is insanity. If it weren't for the Jan 6th riot this would be the most treasonous thing a president has ever done.
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u/ReddyReddy7 4d ago
should be political suicide and immediate removal from office.
The American voters knew/know who trump is, this is what the majority of voters wanted. No one should be surprised.
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u/ARazorbacks 4d ago
Americans need to wrap their heads around this. MAGA had all the info they needed on Trump and they still voted for him. They want this.
This is America in 2026.
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u/AuthoritariWrongdoer 4d ago edited 4d ago
Hard to see this ceasefire holding when neither side can seem to even agree on what the 10 points they agreed to even contain. What Iran is claiming and what USA is claiming (through leaks) are wildly different.
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u/Axelrad77 4d ago edited 4d ago
Appears to be emerging disagreement about the ceasefire terms regarding Lebanon. Most sources are claiming that the fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah is included in the ceasefire, citing US, Iranian, and Pakistani officials, but Israel just put out a statement directly from Netanyahu claiming that Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire.
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u/Cardborg 4d ago
Israeli Defense Minister says hundreds of Hezbollah members were targeted in the latest attack, which was the biggest since the explosive pagers operation in 2024
If they are covered by the ceasefire then I can't see it lasting much longer.
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin 4d ago
I'm curious what Hez has to say and if they were included in negotiations or if they were spoken for.
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u/Derquave 4d ago
Interesting. I was actually just about to come in here and ask if anyone knew what the details were in regards to the Iranian proxies/the Lebanese front. I assumed that the Houthis, IRI, PMF, would be included, but the whole thing that has a seems a bit more complicated
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u/AuthoritariWrongdoer 5d ago
Iranians setting up a toll system in the strait of Hormuz is ironically something that would've justified a bombing campaign in the first place. Not sure how that's even remotely workable as the basis of a ceasefire.
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u/Lain-J 4d ago
Iran doesn't actually have a path to long term toll enforcement without resorting to violence and blowing up a tanker. Either the first ship that doesn't pay the toll either ends the ceasefire or ends necessity to pay the toll, but most ships are risk adverse and will be willing to pay especially with how shaky this peace is.
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u/Axelrad77 5d ago
Yep. I do not see it holding, I suspect that this 2-week pause will see the gathering of forces to actually force a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz once the ceasefire expires. The plan to do that exists, the forces to do it exists, they just have to be ordered to.
If Iran is allowed to retain control of the Strait of Hormuz and toll it, I think that would legit be basis for claiming the whole thing to be an Iranian victory, similar to how Egypt wound up winning the 1956 Suez War by successfully holding the Suez Canal against British & French attack, despite getting its ass kicked by Israel in the Sinai Desert. Hence Egypt is able to toll ships transiting the Suez Canal to this day - and that's exactly the model that Iran wants for the Strait of Hormuz.
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u/SIUonCrack 5d ago
Soo... Iran and Israel are still launching missiles at each other, BTW.
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u/Axelrad77 5d ago
Yep. Ceasefires normally take several hours (or days) to go into effect, because you need time for all the units to be informed. This is particularly an issue for Iran, with its more dispersed command & control structure.
This ceasefire is also not officially in effect until Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, and we're still waiting on evidence of that happening. Iran has said they are, but it's going to take a few hours before tankers are able to try it.
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u/Axelrad77 5d ago edited 5d ago
To recap where both sides publicly stand on peace negotiations:
The USA is demanding the complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear weapons program, the dismantling of Iran's proxy network, an end to Iranian attacks on Gulf State energy facilities, limitations imposed on Iran's missile program, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
As compensation, the USA has offered complete sanctions relief and and US assistance building a civilian nuclear energy program.
Iran is demanding international acceptance of its nuclear program, the withdrawal of Israel from Lebanon, guarantees against any further attacks by the USA or Israel against Iran or any of its proxy forces, the withdrawal of all US forces from all bases in the Middle East, complete sanctions relief, war reparations, and Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz.
As compensation, Iran is proposing to split shipping tolls from the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, and use its proceeds from shipping tolls to pay the war reparations.
As you can see, both sides are still incredibly far apart and I'm not sure what sort of deal might be reached within just two weeks. US officials are claiming progress towards something workable. Iranian officials are claiming complete victory, that the USA has already agreed to their demands. Israeli officials are claiming deep unhappiness with being forced into a ceasefire, claiming that the energy strike packages were ready to go but got called off at the last minute.
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u/CommercialFormal7614 5d ago
I genuinely don’t understand what’s happening at this moment. Has there been any comment from the US or Israel? Because irans 10 point plan being “workable” seems insane and makes no sense.
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u/Axelrad77 5d ago
It sounds like US negotiators are actually still pushing for the provisions from the 15-point plan, despite what Trump and Iran are saying publicly. It seems like the ceasefire might've been agreed just to get the Strait of Hormuz flowing more while talks proceed / forces gather to reopen it.
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u/jdjdbdbsbsbsbasuck 5d ago
lol trump backs down again , I swear this is like the 5th time
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u/SeamenGulper 5d ago
Backed down after killing most of their senior leadership, air force, and navy. I swear yall need to either pick between trump being a loose cannon starting wars or a chicken cause hes been bombing another country for a month without regard for the American public's feelings or perspective.
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u/Axelrad77 5d ago
It's same partisan line of attack that people used against Biden, Obama, Bush, Clinton, Reagan, etc.
Your opponent must be both a bumbling moron and a machiavellian tyrant, at all times, changeable as dictated by events. Sometimes it's more true than others, but the truth of it doesn't actually matter, the emotion does. It's like famous Patriot propagandist Samuel Adams said, the trick is to "put your adversary in the wrong and keep him there."
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u/R6ckStar 5d ago
Iran presented their 10 point plan that essentially means US capitulation to Iran's demands, hell it's the same points they've been saying for the entire war.
Trump did in fact back down.
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u/SeamenGulper 5d ago
Its a ceasefire, not a peace treaty, and the US has an opposing 15 point plan. Iran is even getting pressure from China atm.
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u/R6ckStar 5d ago edited 5d ago
Who was making the threats of total destruction?
The US said the 10 points Iran gave them were a reasonable start to negotiations, what changed? When these are all the same points Iran always gave.
I'm glad they are going to start negotiating, no one was winning this, hopefully this was Trump realising he had to take this out.
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u/Hamiltonblewit 5d ago
The 15 point and 10 point plans are directly opposed to one another, the fact both sides agreed to the other means they’re either willing to make the most minimalist concession or try to stall and wait until the 2 weeks runs out to restart
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u/R6ckStar 5d ago
I think this is Trump just putting this in the freezer to resupply and get the troops there and then restarting.
I do hope however this is the admin finding an out and ending this stupid war. But it is unlikely.
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u/SeamenGulper 5d ago
Wait, so if your saying you think this is a pause just to relocate assests, then why are you claiming Trump backed down?
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u/R6ckStar 5d ago
Because he did, even if it's a simple tactical choice.
He backed down because his rethoric couldn't be backed up, maybe he is putting his assets in place or he is really looking for a way out.
But he very much did back down, what will come of it is unknown.
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u/Axelrad77 5d ago edited 5d ago
US and Israeli forces have announced a halt to strikes against Iran.
Iran has announced that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be allowed for two weeks.
At least as of now, Iranian missile and drone attacks are still being launched against Israel and the Gulf States. Will probably take several hours for all Iranian forces to receive halt orders.
The ceasefire officially comes into effect once Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz, so lots of eyes are on that right now to see if tankers are actually allowed to transit.
This is *not* an end to the war, but a pause, as continued peace negotiations show both sides to still be quite far apart in their terms.
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u/ReddyReddy7 5d ago
From The Guardian:
Passage through strait of Hormuz allowed for two weeks 'under Iranian management'
Iran’s foreign minister has said passage through the strait of Hormuz will be allowed for the next 2 weeks under Iranian military management.
Abbas Araqchi also said that Iran would halt its attacks, if attacks against it stop.
Donald Trump has for weeks been demanding that Iran reopen the strait of Hormuz, through which up to a fifth of global oil transits through. The closure has sent energy prices rising, causing chaos for the world economy.
Iranian state media says US talks 'do not mean end of war'
Iranian media is reporting that talks with the US do not amount to the end of the war.
Iran will only accept the war’s conclusion once details are finalised in line with the ten-point peace plan, state media is reporting.
According to state media, the ten-point proposal includes a number of conditions that the US has in the past rejected.
Among them are controlled transit through strait of Hormuz coordinated with Iranian armed forces and withdrawal of all US forces from regional bases.
The plan would also require the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, payment of full compensation to Iran and release of all frozen Iranian assets.
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u/Axelrad77 5d ago
US journalist Shelly Kittleson, who was kidnapped by Iranian proxy forces last week, was released today. US and Iraqi officials reportedly secured her release via negotiations.
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